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Subject Topic: Wizard Stats - season 2002-2003 Post ReplyPost New Topic
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warrenblock
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Joined: 31 July 2003
Location: Australia
Posts: 267
Posted: 09 August 2003 at 12:33am | IP Logged Quote warrenblock

Here are some Wizard stats from the past 2002-2003 season. The figures are after scratchings.

The stats cover Sydney and Melbourne combined, Brisbane and Adelaide and Perth combined, the major provincials (Wyong, Werribee etc), and the country meetings.

The first set of data relates to WRAT:

All figures show the win percentage for each category

First the WRAT runners in ratings by groups.

Wrat points     Syd Mel       Br, Ad,Pe         Prov       Ctry

100 pointer        21.2           22.6                 25.0       25.8

95 to 100          29.9            32.1                 33.5       33.7

90 to 100          45.9            48.3                 50.4       48.8

85 to 100          61.6            60.8                 61.8       60.9

80 to 100          72.3            71.7                 70.8       71.0

75 to 100          82.2            80.0                 78.5       80.0

70 to 100          89.1            87.2                 84.6       87.3

The WRAT runners in ranked order.

Wrat ranking          Syd Mel         Br, Ad,Pe         Prov        Ctry

1 - 1                      21.2              22.6              25.0       25.8

1 - 2                      36.2              40.9              42.9       42.5

1 - 3                      49.8              52.9              56.3       55.6

1 - 4                      60.9              63.3              66.8       66.9

1 - 5                      70.7              71.4              74.1       75.1

1 - 6                      78.2              78.0              80.2       82.3

1 - 7                      84.2              83.9              85.0       87.7

Now the TRAT figures.

The first set of data relates to TRAT ratings grouped.

Trat points              Syd Mel           Br, Ad,Pe         Prov         Ctry

100 pointer               20.1                19.8              23.5        21.7

95 to 100                 36.2                37.9              39.0        37.8

90 to 100                 55.1                58.3              55.8        55.0

85 to 100                 68.7                69.1              66.5        67.5

80 to 100                 79.2                77.4              75.2        76.5

75 to 100                 85.7                84.8              82.2        83.9

70 to 100                 91.3                89.4              87.1        89.2

The TRAT runners in ranked order.

Trat ranking           Syd Mel          Br, Ad,Pe         Prov         Ctry

1 - 1                       20.1              19.9             23.6          21.7

1 - 2                       35.2              37.9             42.4          40.9

1 - 3                       49.0              52.0             55.0          54.4

1 - 4                       59.1              62.0             66.0          65.6

1 - 5                       70.4              71.3             73.8          74.2

1 - 6                       77.6              78.2             79.6          81.2

1 - 7                       83.6              84.0             84.7          86.8

Next, the Consensus Poll runners in ranked order.

Poll ranking              Syd Mel          Br, Ad,Pe         Prov         Ctry

1 - 1                        18.4               19.9             23.8         23.3

1 - 2                        32.2               36.0             40.2         39.6

1 - 3                        45.0               48.1             51.9         52.5

1 - 4                        55.5               58.4             61.0         62.7

1 - 5                        65.5               67.8             68.8         70.6

1 - 6                        75.3               75.6             76.2         78.8

1 - 7                        82.3               81.9             81.7         84.4

Also

100 pointer           Syd Mel          Br, Ad,Pe         Prov          Ctry

is the favourite      35.1%              33.8%          35.0%       34.7%

100 pointer if         27.8%              27.1%          28.9%       28.4%

highest win %

100 pointer if

highest average     27.1%              26.9%          29.3%      30.3%

prizemoney

Overall the figures seem to have improved last year on their long term figures.

Also it is worth noting the strength in the provincial and country figures despite the presence of many maidens and class 1 races. In my opinion this is partly due to marginally smaller fields at some tracks but especially to the fact that these races lack the depth of the city fields which are very evenly graded, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.

Also note how the addition of other factors (win %, average prizemoney etc) will improve the strike rate of the horse. This is an element that we will explore exhaustively in the months ahead.

Hope this helps.

Warren Block



Edited by warrenblock on 09 August 2003 at 12:34am
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