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View all meetings for the 17/04/2024

Wizard Daily Report and Research

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Wizard Ratings Report

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Sunday, 14 April 2024.

*** Tomorrow*** Trainer Profile for Richard and Chantelle Jolly

Wizard Ratings Results for the meetings on Saturday, April 13

The table below shows the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk in that order.

Table - Wizard Ratings Results for Saturday, April 13

Sat 13.04.24		Race 1	Race 2	Race 3	Race 4	Race 5	Race 6	Race 7	Race 8	Race 9	Race 10	meeting
	SOT	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	w m h e
ARARAT	g4g	1 2. 2 2	- - - -	1 3 2 3	1 1 - 3.	- - - 3.	1 1 1. -	- - - -	- - - -			4 2 1. 0
ASCOT	g4	2 2 1 1	- - 2 3.	2 2 3 1	1 1 1 -	3 3 3 -	3 - 1 2.	- - 1 1	2 1 2. -	3 2 - -		1 2 4 3
BENDIGO	g4g	- 2 1. -	1 1 1 1	- - - -	- - - -	- - 2. -	- - - -	3 - 1 3	- - 3. -	1 1 3 3	1 1 - 1	3 3 3. 2
CASINO	s7	- - 2 3	1 1 2 3.									1 1 0 0
DOOMBEN	g4	1 1 1. 1	1 2. 1 -	- - - 1	- - 3. 3.	- - 2 1	1 1 1. 3	- - - 1	- - - -	- - - -		3 2 3. 4
GOLD COAST POLY	aw	3 3 - -	- - 2 2	2 1 2 3	- 2 2. -	2 2 2. -	2 2 2 -	3 3 2 -				0 1 0 0
KALGOORLIE	s5	2 1 - 1	2 1 1 1	- - - -	1 1 3 -	1 1 2 3	2 - 2 -	- 2 - -				2 4 1 2
MORPHETTVILLE	g4g	2 2 1 3	2 2 1. 1	- - - 2	- - - -	1 - 1 -	1 1 1 1	3 - - -	1 2 2. 3	- 3 2 1		3 1 4. 3
NEWCASTLE	g4	1 1 1 3	- - - -	1 3 1 2	1 1 2 3	- 3. 2. 1.	1 1 - 1	1 1 - -	- - - -	- - - -		5 4 2 2.
RANDWICK	s5g4	1 3 - -	- 3 2 -	- - 2 3	- - 2 1.	1 1 - -	2 2 1. -	1 - - -	3 3 2. 2.	1 2. 2 3.	- - 2 -	4 1 1. 1.
TOOWOOMBA	g4	- - - -	1 2 1 1	3 2 2 1	- - - 3.	1 1. 1 -	- - 3. -	3 - 3 -	- 2 3 -			2 1. 2 2
TOWNSVILLE	g4	- 3 2. 3	- - - -	3 1 - 2	2 2 2 1	2 1 - 1						0 2 0 2

Header w m h e = Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk

The table above shows the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat (w), Wmod (m), Whcp (h), and Wexpk (e) in that order. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.

For example, a cell entry of 1 2. 3 would read as:

.. 1 .. rated 1st (100 pointer) on Wrat

.. - .. not rated in the top three on Wmod

.. 2. .. rated equal 2nd on Whcp (the full stop after the numeric indicates it was rated equal 2nd)

.. 3 .. rated 3rd on Wexpk

As well as the results for individual races there a summary for each meeting which shows the number of winners for each of the Wizard and Wizard Plus ratings. An entry showing '4 3 0 2.' would be read as follows:

.. 4 .. 4 of the winners were rated 1st on Wrat

.. 3 .. 3 of the winners were rated 1st on Wmod

.. 0 .. no winner was rated 1st on Whcp

.. 2. .. 2 winners were rated 1st on Wexpk but at least one of these was an equal top-rater

With respect to equal-rated runners: This does not happen with Wrat as we have an algorithm that separates runners by adjusting the base ratings by career-record and form-related factors. The same procedure is applied with the Wmod, but not as extensively, and occasionally equal-rated horses could appear, but infrequently.

Where equal-rated runners are more common is in the ratings analysis that is basically pure weight handicapping, the Whcp and Wexpk analyses.

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

Trainer Profile (R & C Jolly) - Wizard weekly results summary

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Monday, 15 April 2024.

Trainer Profile - Richard and Chantelle Jolly
Wizard Ratings Results for week ending April 14

Trainer Profile - Richard and Chantelle Jolly

Richard Jolly was born into a racing family. His father, Peter Jolly, owned a horse agistment property and trained thoroughbreds on a part-time basis. From a very early age, Richard's was a world of horses. Despite some parental misgivings Richard embarked on a career as a jockey as a young teenager. There followed a successful 14 years in the saddle with Group 1 glory and more than 800 wins.

Increasing weight caused Richard to transition from jockey to trainer, and in August 2000 he commenced his training career, first operating out of his father's stable and later purchasing his own stables, also at Morphettville. Richard's ability as a trainer was soon established with a steady flow of winners, and in the years that followed there was Group race success (the first G1 winner was Kushadasi in the 2014 South Australian Derby).

Richard's daughter Chantelle was destined to follow in Richard's footsteps. She had been a constant presence in the stable since she was five years old, and her love of horses and the racing industry saw her acquire a trainer's licence in 2015.

In 2018, Chantelle joined Richard and so was established the Richard and Chantelle Jolly training partnership (hereafter referred to as R&C).

Success has followed the establishment of this R&C training partnership, with S.A. Trainer Metropolitan Premiership wins in 2021-2022 and 2022-2023, and it is leading again in the current season. The stable currently has 46 boxes on site and has an "overflow" capacity which allows for up to 60 horses to be in work at any one time.

The stable is successful on both metropolitan and provincial tracks and has enjoyed success in Group races, interstate as well as locally.

It is worth noting the success the stable has enjoyed in Melbourne since mid-2019.

Number of runners on Melbourne metropolitan tracks = 62

Number of winners on Melbourne metropolitan tracks = 15 (strike rate = 24%)

Number of Group Race winners on Melbourne metropolitan tracks = 9 (60% of winners were in Group races)

Number of runners/wins on Melbourne tracks: Flemington (34/6), Caulfield (14/4), Sandown (5/2), Moonee Valley (9/3).

The R&C stable is a force to be reckoned with both in South Australia and when it travels a horse interstate. Let the force be with you.

R&C - Watch and Wait

With some trainers there are indicators that are especially worth noting. It is a matter of watching and waiting for the right conditions occur. It might be that the trainer out-performs with runners having their first start after a spell, or in sprint races rather than over longer distances, or backing up for a repeat win in a given time period. When these 'key metrics' are in play it is worthwhile paying particular attention to the runner.

The following information is based on an analysis of results delivered by runners who started at odds less than $10.00. All "out-performing" results reported below were flat-stakes profitable over the past 5 years and show the win percentage and the impact value.

2YO horses

Distance: up to 1199m: 30.0%, 1.1iv

Distance change: +/- 100m: 35.7%, 1.1iv

General comment:

The 2yo runners have done well when having their second run from first race start or a spell.

3yo horses

Having first race start: 28.8%, 1.2iv

Runs from a spell: 3rd up: 34.1%, 1.4iv

General comment:

The 3yo's have performed below par (19.1%, 0.8iv) when running as last start winners.

4YO and older horses

Days since last win: 8 to 28 days: 27.5%, 1.4iv

Previous winning margin: 0.1 to 3.0 lengths: 27.0%, 1.0iv

General comment:

overall do best when backing up 8 to 28 since last run.
Overall do best when coming off a last start win or 2nd, 3rd placing
Overall do best when distance change is -100m to +300m

Richard and Chantelle Jolly - Jockey combinations

The table below examines the trainer-jockey combinations under three conditions:

When the horse is the Wrat 100 pointer and started at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
When the horse runs as the race favourite at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
When the horse starts at odds between $2.00 and $5.90

From 01/08/2022 To 07/04/2024			100					fav					2-5.9
R & C Jolly with	win%	1st	2nd	3rd	unp	win%	1st	2nd	3rd	unp	win%	1st	2nd	3rd	unp
Alana Kelly	0.00%	0	0	1	0	25.00%	1	1	1	1	16.70%	1	2	2	1
Barend Vorster	33.30%	1	0	0	2	25.00%	1	0	0	3	33.30%	2	0	0	4
Ben Price	33.30%	3	2	0	4	20.00%	1	1	0	3	30.80%	4	2	1	6
Chelsey Reynolds	0.00%	0	0	0	1	50.00%	1	0	0	1	50.00%	1	0	0	1
Callan Murray	0.00%	0	0	0	1	25.00%	1	1	0	2	25.00%	1	1	1	1
Campbell Rawiller	100.00%	1	0	0	0	100.00%	1	0	0	0	100.00%	1	0	0	0
Craig Williams	50.00%	1	1	0	0	50.00%	1	1	0	0	50.00%	1	1	0	0
Jake Toeroek	25.90%	22	13	13	37	42.70%	41	14	9	32	27.80%	50	30	28	72
Jason Benbow	0.00%	0	0	0	2	-	-	-	-	-	20.00%	1	0	1	3
Jason Holder	50.00%	1	0	0	1	50.00%	1	0	0	1	25.00%	1	0	0	3
Kayla Crowther	42.90%	3	2	0	2	40.00%	2	2	0	1	25.00%	6	7	1	10
Sheriden Tomlinson	33.30%	2	3	0	1	33.30%	2	1	0	3	15.80%	3	3	2	11
Teagan Voorham	50.00%	1	0	0	1	50.00%	1	0	0	1	50.00%	1	0	0	1
Todd Pannell	14.30%	1	0	1	5	0.00%	0	0	1	5	8.30%	1	0	3	8

The statistics cover the stable's runners throughout Australia.

The period covered is from 1 August 2022, so last season and the current season. (Older results for trainer-jockey combinations not really relevant.)

Wizard Ratings Report week ending Sunday, April 14

Overall, the result last week for Wrat was 25.0% (84 winners from 337 races.)

From Monday to Sunday the daily results were: (16.5%, 26.5%, 25.0%, 25.0%, 20.0%, 30.0%, 24.5%).

A few of the more notable double-figure top-rated (100 pointer) winners last week were:

Course	Date	Race	Tab	Horse	SP Win	Rating
BENDIGO	13/04/2024	9	13	El Soleado	$15.00	Wrat & Wmod

Course	Date	Race	Tab	Horse	SP Win	Rating
CANBERRA	12/04/2024	5	13	Goofinator	$12.00	Wmod

Course	Date	Race	Tab	Horse	SP Win	Rating
SWAN HILL	9/04/2024	8	13	The Hay Flyer	$41.00	Wexpk
DOOMBEN	13/04/2024	5	18	Northern Decree	$26.00	Wexpk
KYNETON	11/04/2024	8	16	Cleaver	$18.00	Wexpk
DOOMBEN	13/04/2024	7	5	Oceans Of Energy	$18.00	Wexpk
WELLINGTON	14/04/2024	3	11	Invader's Girl	$13.00	Wexpk

The following tables show the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.

Mon 08.04.24		Race 1	Race 2	Race 3	Race 4	Race 5	Race 6	Race 7	Race 8	Race 9	Race 10	meeting
	SOT	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	w m h e
ECHUCA	s5	- - - -	3 2 - 1	- - - -	2 1 1 2.	- - 2 1.	- - 3 -	- - - -	- - - -			0 1 1 2.
LONGREACH	g	- - - 3.	2 1 3. -	- 2 2 2	2 - 1 2	- - - 1	2 1 2 -	- - 3 -				0 2 1 1
TAMWORTH	s6	2 1 2 -	3 - 3 -	1 3 1 1	3 3 - 3	3 3 1. 1	2 - 1. 2	- - - -				1 1 3. 2
WAGGA RIVERSIDE	h8	1 1 1 1	- 3 - 2	1 2 2 2	- 3 - 3.	- 3 - 2	3 - 2 3.	1 1 3. -	1 1 3. -			4 3 1 1

Tue 09.04.24		Race 1	Race 2	Race 3	Race 4	Race 5	Race 6	Race 7	Race 8	Race 9	Race 10	meeting
	SOT	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	w m h e
CAIRNS	s6	1 1 1. 3	3 3 2 1	1 1 1 -	3 1 - 1	2 2 1 2	- 2 2. 2	- - 2. -	- - - 2.			2 3 3. 2
GRAFTON	s7s6	1 1 2 -	3 2 2. -	- - - 2	1 1 2 -	- - 3 3	2 2 1 2	3 2. - -				2 2 1 0
KEMBLA GRANGE	h9h10	1 1 2 3.	3 2 1 1	- - 2. -	3 2 3 3	3 2 2. 3	1 1 2 -	3 3 2 -				2 2 1 1
SWAN HILL	g4g3	- 3 - 3.	2 1 1. 3	- - - -	1 2 3 -	2 2 - -	- - - -	1 2 2 -	- - 2 1			2 1 1. 1

Wed 10.04.24		Race 1	Race 2	Race 3	Race 4	Race 5	Race 6	Race 7	Race 8	Race 9	Race 10	meeting
	SOT	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	w m h e
GAWLER	s5	- - - -	3 3 1 2	3 3 1 2.	- 2 - -	1 - - -	- - 2 -	2 - - -				1 0 2 0
GOSFORD	s7	- 2. 2. 2.	1 2 1 -	- - - 3	- - 1. -	- - 3 -	- - - -	1 1 - 1	3 2 - -			2 1 2. 1
IPSWICH	s5	- - - -	3 3 1 3.	- - - -	1 1 1 -	1 1 2. -	- - 3 -	- - 3. -	3 1 - -	3 - - -		2 3 2 0
LAUNCESTON	s5g4	2 - 2. -	3 1 2. 3.	- - - -	- 3 2. 1	- 3 - -	1 1 - -	2 1 3. 1.	3 2 3 3.			1 3 0 2.
PINJARRA	g4	- - - -	1 - 2 1	- - - -	1 2 2 -	- - - -	1 1 1 -	- - 2 -	1 1 1 2			4 2 2 1
SANDOWN-LAKESIDE	s6	- - - -	1 - - -	- 3. 3. 3.	- - - -	- - - 3	2 2 1 1	1 1 3. -	- - - 3			2 1 1 1

Thu 11.04.24		Race 1	Race 2	Race 3	Race 4	Race 5	Race 6	Race 7	Race 8	Race 9	Race 10	meeting
	SOT	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	w m h e
ALBANY	g4s5	1 1 1 1	- - - 1	3 2. - 2	2 1 1 1	1 1 1. -	2 2 1 1.	- - - -				2 3 4. 4.
KYNETON	s6s5	1 2 1 3	1 1 1 2	2 2 1 3	1 1 1. 3	- 3 2. -	- - - -	- - - -	- - - 1			3 2 4. 1
PAKENHAM	s6s5	- - - -	- - - -	- - - -	- - - -	1 2 - -	- 3 - 3	- - - 3	1 1 - -			2 1 0 0
WYONG	g4	2 - 1 1.	2 2 2 3	- - - -	1 2 2 -	- 3 3 -	2 2 1 1	3 2 - -	3 2 - 2.	- - - -		1 0 2 2.

Fri 12.04.24		Race 1	Race 2	Race 3	Race 4	Race 5	Race 6	Race 7	Race 8	Race 9	Race 10	meeting
	SOT	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	w m h e
CANBERRA	s6	- - - -	- 2 - -	- - - 2.	1 1 1. -	2 1 2 -	- 3 3 -	- - - -	1 1 - -			2 3 1. 0
CRANBOURNE	s5	1 1 2 1	1 1 1 2	- - - -	1 - - -	- - - 3	- - - -	- 2 - -	- 2 3 -			3 2 1 1
DARWIN	g	3 - - -	2 2 - 3.	3 2. - -	- - - 2	1 1 3 -						1 1 0 0
GEELONG	g4g	3 2 1 1	- 2 - -	1 1 - 1	- - - -	2 3 1 -	1 1 - 2	- - 3 -	- - - 3.			2 2 2 2
MACKAY	g4	- 2 - -	- 2 - 2.	- - - -	3 - 2 -	3 3 3 -	1 1 - 3	2 1 3. -				1 2 0 0
SUNSHINE COAST	h8	- - - -	2 2 - -	- - - -	- - 2. 2.	- - 3. -	3 - 3 -	- - 3. -				0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON	s6s5	- - - 3	1 1 3. 2	2 2 - 2	2 2 1 1	- - - -	- - 2. -	- - - 1	3 2 1 -			1 1 2 2

Sat 13.04.24		Race 1	Race 2	Race 3	Race 4	Race 5	Race 6	Race 7	Race 8	Race 9	Race 10	meeting
	SOT	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	w m h e
ARARAT	g4g	1 2. 2 2	- - - -	1 3 2 3	1 1 - 3.	- - - 3.	1 1 1. -	- - - -	- - - -			4 2 1. 0
ASCOT	g4	2 2 1 1	- - 2 3.	2 2 3 1	1 1 1 -	3 3 3 -	3 - 1 2.	- - 1 1	2 1 2. -	3 2 - -		1 2 4 3
BENDIGO	g4g	- 2 1. -	1 1 1 1	- - - -	- - - -	- - 2. -	- - - -	3 - 1 3	- - 3. -	1 1 3 3	1 1 - 1	3 3 3. 2
CASINO	s7	- - 2 3	1 1 2 3.									1 1 0 0
DOOMBEN	g4	1 1 1. 1	1 2. 1 -	- - - 1	- - 3. 3.	- - 2 1	1 1 1. 3	- - - 1	- - - -	- - - -		3 2 3. 4
GOLD COAST POLY	aw	3 3 - -	- - 2 2	2 1 2 3	- 2 2. -	2 2 2. -	2 2 2 -	3 3 2 -				0 1 0 0
KALGOORLIE	s5	2 1 - 1	2 1 1 1	- - - -	1 1 3 -	1 1 2 3	2 - 2 -	- 2 - -				2 4 1 2
MORPHETTVILLE	g4g	2 2 1 3	2 2 1. 1	- - - 2	- - - -	1 - 1 -	1 1 1 1	3 - - -	1 2 2. 3	- 3 2 1		3 1 4. 3
NEWCASTLE	g4	1 1 1 3	- - - -	1 3 1 2	1 1 2 3	- 3. 2. 1.	1 1 - 1	1 1 - -	- - - -	- - - -		5 4 2 2.
RANDWICK	s5g4	1 3 - -	- 3 2 -	- - 2 3	- - 2 1.	1 1 - -	2 2 1. -	1 - - -	3 3 2. 2.	1 2. 2 3.	- - 2 -	4 1 1. 1.
TOOWOOMBA	g4	- - - -	1 2 1 1	3 2 2 1	- - - 3.	1 1. 1 -	- - 3. -	3 - 3 -	- 2 3 -			2 1. 2 2
TOWNSVILLE	g4	- 3 2. 3	- - - -	3 1 - 2	2 2 2 1	2 1 - 1						0 2 0 2

Sun 14.04.24		Race 1	Race 2	Race 3	Race 4	Race 5	Race 6	Race 7	Race 8	Race 9	Race 10	meeting
	SOT	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	w m h e
BORDERTOWN	g4g	- - - -	2 2 2 1	2 1 - 1	- - 2. -	- - 3. -	- - 2 -	2 1 2. -	- - - -			0 2 0 2
GRAFTON	s5	2 2 2 2	1 1 1 -	- - 3 -	2 3 - -	2 1 2. 1	1 1 1 3.	- - 3 3.	- - 3 -			2 3 2 1
NARROGIN	g3	- - 2. -	1 3 3 -	- - - -	- - - -	1 1 1 -	2 - 3 -	1 1 1 1	1 3 2 -			4 2 2 1
PAKENHAM	s5	2 3 2 -	- - - -	3 3 - -	- 3 2 3	- - 3 3	1 1 1 2					1 1 1 0
SUNSHINE COAST	s7s6	- - 3 -	1 1 1. -	1 3 3 -	- - 3. 2.	- - - -	1 1 2 -	3 - 2. 3				3 2 1. 0
TERANG	s5s	- - - -	1 3 3 2	3 2 - 3	1 1 1 3	- 2 - -	- 3 - 3	2 3 3 2.	1 1 3. -			3 2 1 0
WELLINGTON	s5g4	2 2 2 3.	- 3 - 1	- - - 1	- 3 - -	- - - 1	- - 2 -	3 - 1. 1.	- - - -			0 0 1. 4.

Header: w m h e = Wrat (w), Wmod (m), Whcp (h), Wexpk (e)

For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

Trainer & Jockey Combinations - Wizard Ratings Results

Wizard Daily Report and Research Tuesday, 16 April 2024.

Trainer & Jockey Combination (Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott)
Wizard Ratings Results for Monday, April 15

Trainer & Jockey Combination (Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott)

This table examines the trainer-jockey combinations under three conditions:

When the horse is the Wrat 100 pointer and started at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
When the horse runs as the race favourite at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
When the horse starts at odds between $2.00 and $5.90

Wrat 100 pointers SP Favourite Start between $2.00 and $5.90

G Waterhouse & A Bott with	win%	1st	2nd	3rd	unp	win%	1st	2nd	3rd	unp	win%	1st	2nd	3rd	unp
Adam Hyeronimus	26.10%	6	3	5	9	35.70%	10	4	5	9	20.00%	12	11	11	26
Amy McLucas	25.00%	2	3	1	2	22.20%	2	3	0	4	26.90%	7	5	2	12
Blake Shinn	25.00%	1	1	0	2	40.00%	2	1	1	1	60.00%	6	1	0	3
Brett Prebble	33.30%	1	0	1	1	37.50%	3	2	0	3	12.50%	1	1	2	4
Campbell Rawiller	50.00%	1	0	0	1	100.00%	3	0	0	0	42.90%	3	0	1	3
Damien Oliver	0.00%	0	0	0	1	33.30%	1	2	0	0	12.50%	1	4	0	3
Emma Ly	50.00%	1	0	0	1	33.30%	1	1	0	1	33.30%	1	0	0	2
James Innes Jnr	0.00%	0	0	0	1	33.30%	1	1	0	1	16.70%	1	1	0	4
James McDonald	33.30%	1	0	0	2	14.30%	1	1	0	5	20.00%	1	1	0	3
Jean Van Overmeire	33.30%	1	2	0	0	33.30%	1	1	0	1	33.30%	3	3	0	3
Jett Stanley	50.00%	1	0	1	0	50.00%	1	0	1	0	33.30%	1	0	1	1
Joao Moreira	100.00%	1	0	0	0	100.00%	1	0	0	0	100.00%	1	0	0	0
Jordan Childs	26.10%	6	3	2	12	38.70%	12	4	4	11	32.80%	19	11	4	24
Joshua Parr	16.70%	1	1	1	3	33.30%	2	0	1	3	23.10%	3	2	1	7
Jye McNeil	66.70%	2	0	1	0	50.00%	1	1	0	0	50.00%	2	1	1	0
Koby Jennings	33.30%	1	0	0	2	-	-	-	-	-	25.00%	1	0	1	2
Lee Magorrian	100.00%	1	0	0	0	50.00%	1	0	1	0	40.00%	2	0	1	2
Linda Meech	100.00%	1	0	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0	2	40.00%	2	0	0	3
Louis Beuzelin	16.70%	1	2	0	3	50.00%	1	1	0	0	20.00%	2	2	1	5
Nash Rawiller	20.00%	1	1	0	3	37.50%	3	1	2	2	25.00%	4	3	3	6
Rachel King	25.00%	2	0	1	5	42.90%	3	0	1	3	27.30%	6	1	2	13
Regan Bayliss	36.00%	9	3	2	11	41.70%	15	6	3	12	30.50%	18	13	4	24
Ross O'Sullivan	-	-	-	-	-	100.00%	1	0	0	0	100.00%	1	0	0	0
Tim Clark	33.30%	17	10	8	16	29.50%	23	18	8	29	28.00%	35	29	15	46
William Pike	-	-	-	-	-	100.00%	1	0	0	0	100.00%	1	0	0	0
Winona Costin	7.10%	1	3	1	9	19.20%	5	8	2	11	15.80%	6	9	5	18
Zac Lloyd	0.00%	0	0	1	0	50.00%	1	1	0	0	33.30%	1	1	1	0

The statistics cover the stable's runners throughout Australia.

The period covered is from 1 August 2022, so last season and the current season. (Older results for trainer-jockey combinations not really relevant.)

Wizard Ratings Report for the meetings on Monday, April 8

The following table shows the where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.

Mon 15.04.24		Race 1	Race 2	Race 3	Race 4	Race 5	Race 6	Race 7	Race 8	Race 9	Race 10	meeting
	SOT	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	w m h e
ALBURY	g4	3 3 1 -	3 2 2. 2.	- - - 3	- - - -	- - - 3	2 - 2. -	2 - 1. -				0 0 2. 0
ARMIDALE	s5	- - - -	- 3 - 3.	- - - -	1 1 2 3.	- 3. 2. -	1 1 3. -	3 2 2 -				2 2 0 0
BAIRNSDALE	g4	1 1 3 1	- - - -	- - - -	3 - 2 3.	3 3 - -	- - - -	2 3 1 -	1 1 - -			2 2 1 1

Header: w m h e = Wrat (w), Wmod (m), Whcp (h), Wexpk (e)

For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

Wizard Daily Report and Research for today is not yet available.

Wizard Ratings and Track Conditions - Wizard Ratings Report

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Thursday, 11 April 2024.

Wizard Ratings and Track Conditions
Wizard Ratings Report - Wednesday, April 10

Wizard Ratings and the Track Conditions

In the first three days of this week 11 of the 14 meetings rated by the Wizard have been run on a soft or heavy track.

The following table shows how each of the four ratings analyses in the Wizard (Wrat) and Wizard Plus (Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk) have performed under different track conditions.

The track conditions, for the 41,000+ races rated by Wizard since 1 August 2021, are categorized as:

Good 1-4
Soft 5-7
Heavy 8-10

Table - Wizard Ratings and the Track Conditions

Rating	G 1-4	G 1-4	G 1-4	S 5-7	S 5-7	S 5-7	H 8-10	H 8-10	H 8-10
	Races	Wins	Win %	Races	Wins	Win %	Races	Wins	Win %
Wrtat	24,464	6,511	26.6%	12,868	3,340	26.0%	4,300	1,109	25.8%
Wmod	24,364	6,189	25.4%	12,812	3,205	25.0%	4,264	1,052	24.7%
Whcp	21,163	4,543	21.5%	11,147	2,240	20.1%	3,763	831	22.1%
Wexpk	21,514	3,223	15.0%	11,320	1,609	14.2%	3,834	608	15.9%

It is clear from this table that all four ratings methodologies are equally reliable under all track conditions, with a less than 1.0% variation as the underfoot conditions vary from good to heavy, except when comparing Whcp good to soft where the variation is negative 1.4%.

It is interesting to note that the pure weight handicapping approaches of Whcp and Wexpk actually improve the strike rate on heavy tracks. I have no ready explanation for this, but it is a result from a large number of races, so it is unlikely to be a chance result.

Wizard Ratings Report - Wednesday, April 10

Wed 10.04.24		Race 1	Race 2	Race 3	Race 4	Race 5	Race 6	Race 7	Race 8	Race 9	Race 10	meeting
	SOT	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	w m h e
GAWLER	s5	- - - -	3 3 1 2	3 3 1 2.	- 2 - -	1 - - -	- - 2 -	2 - - -				1 0 2 0
GOSFORD	s7	- 2. 2. 2.	1 2 1 -	- - - 3	- - 1. -	- - 3 -	- - - -	1 1 - 1	3 2 - -			2 1 2. 1
IPSWICH	s5	- - - -	3 3 1 3.	- - - -	1 1 1 -	1 1 2. -	- - 3 -	- - 3. -	3 1 - -	3 - - -		2 3 2 0
LAUNCESTON	s5g4	2 - 2. -	3 1 2. 3.	- - - -	- 3 2. 1	- 3 - -	1 1 - -	2 1 3. 1.	3 2 3 3.			1 3 0 2.
PINJARRA	g4	- - - -	1 - 2 1	- - - -	1 2 2 -	- - - -	1 1 1 -	- - 2 -	1 1 1 2			4 2 2 1
SANDOWN-LAKESIDE	s6	- - - -	1 - - -	- 3. 3. 3.	- - - -	- - - 3	2 2 1 1	1 1 3. -	- - - 3			2 1 1 1

Header: w m h e = Wrat (w), Wmod (m), Whcp (h), Wexpk (e)

For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

Wizard Ratings and Track Conditions (continued) - Wizard Ratings Report

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Friday, 12 April 2024.

Wizard Ratings and Track Conditions - Location
Wizard Ratings Report - Thursday, April 11

Wizard Ratings and the Track Conditions - Metropolitan, Provincial, Country

In the first four days of this week 14 of the 18 meetings rated by the Wizard have been run on a soft or heavy track.

The following table shows how the Wizard Rating (Wrat) has performed under different track conditions across metropolitan, provincial, and country tracks.

The track conditions, for these 41,000+ races rated by Wizard since 1 August 2021, are categorized as:

Good 1-4
Soft 5-7
Heavy 8-10

Table - Wizard Ratings and the Track Conditions by Location

Wizard Rating	G 1-4	G 1-4	G 1-4	S 5-7	S 5-7	S 5-7	H 8-10	H 8-10	H 8-10
Wrat	Races	Wins	Win %	Races	Wins	Win %	Races	Wins	Win %
Metropolitan	5,887	1,519	25.8%	2,927	744	25.4%	855	216	25.3%
Provincial	8,006	2,160	27.0%	4,595	1,170	25.5%	1,719	453	26.4%
Country	10,571	2,832	26.8%	5,346	1,426	26.7%	1,726	440	25.5%

The figures show that Wrat performs in a similar manner under all track conditions, with a maximum 1.5% variation being for provincial soft going as compared to good going.

It is interesting to note that this analysis confirms what other Wizard Reports have shown in the past: Results on provincial and country tracks mostly outperform those achieved at metropolitan tracks. I believe there are a number of factors contributing to this result, with the key factors being:

Provincial and country races often lack the depth of quality across the field compared to those in the city; therefore, they tend to be less competitive.
The better trainers on the outside circuit are as competent as the majority of their city counterparts and their horses are well prepared and well placed.
The best regional jockeys are fully capable and ride as well and as consistently, relative to their local opposition, as do the best of their city counterparts
Wizard devotes as much time analysing and after-race Q-rating provincial and country race meetings as it does city races; they are not treated as if they are of lesser importance.

(Note: Yesterday's Daily Report showed how each of the four ratings analyses in the Wizard (Wrat) and Wizard Plus (Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk) have performed under different track conditions.)

Wizard Ratings Report - Wednesday, April 11

Thu 11.04.24		Race 1	Race 2	Race 3	Race 4	Race 5	Race 6	Race 7	Race 8	Race 9	Race 10	meeting
	SOT	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	w m h e
ALBANY	g4s5	1 1 1 1	- - - 1	3 2. - 2	2 1 1 1	1 1 1. -	2 2 1 1.	- - - -				2 3 4. 4.
KYNETON	s6s5	1 2 1 3	1 1 1 2	2 2 1 3	1 1 1. 3	- 3 2. -	- - - -	- - - -	- - - 1			3 2 4. 1
PAKENHAM	s6s5	- - - -	- - - -	- - - -	- - - -	1 2 - -	- 3 - 3	- - - 3	1 1 - -			2 1 0 0
WYONG	g4	2 - 1 1.	2 2 2 3	- - - -	1 2 2 -	- 3 3 -	2 2 1 1	3 2 - -	3 2 - 2.	- - - -		1 0 2 2.

Header: w m h e = Wrat (w), Wmod (m), Whcp (h), Wexpk (e)

For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

Race Favourite / Running Style and Track Conditions - Wizard Ratings Report

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Saturday, 13 April 2024.

Race Favourite and Track Conditions - Running Style
Wizard Ratings Report Friday, April 12

Race Favourite / Running Style and the Track Conditions

In the first five days of this week 18 of the 25 meetings rated by the Wizard have been run on a soft or heavy track.

The following table shows how the Starting Price Race Favourite has performed under different track conditions, categorised by its running style.

The track conditions are categorized as:

Good 1-4
Soft 5-7
Heavy 8-10

The running styles are categorised as:

Front-runner
On-pace
Midfield
Backmarker

Table - Race Favourite /Running Style and the Track Condition

Starting Price	G 1-4	G 1-4	G 1-4	S 5-7	S 5-7	S 5-7	H 8-10	H 8-10	H 8-10
Favourite	Races	Wins	Win %	Races	Wins	Win %	Races	Wins	Win %
Front-runner	2,350	910	38.7%	1,103	395	35.8%	346	126	36.4%
On-pace	9,959	3,527	35.4%	5,152	1,824	35.4%	1,679	596	35.5%
Midfield	7,923	2,732	34.5%	4,253	1,426	33.5%	1,430	471	32.9%
Backmarker	3,346	1,168	34.9%	1,830	593	32.4%	624	203	32.5%

The figures show that there is some minor disadvantage suffered by a race favourite if it runs as a backmarker. The favourite who is a frontrunner is best placed when the tracks is rated "good", 1-4.

Wizard Ratings Report Friday, April 12

Fri 12.04.24		Race 1	Race 2	Race 3	Race 4	Race 5	Race 6	Race 7	Race 8	Race 9	Race 10	meeting
	SOT	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	wmhe	w m h e
CANBERRA	s6	- - - -	- 2 - -	- - - 2.	1 1 1. -	2 1 2 -	- 3 3 -	- - - -	1 1 - -			2 3 1. 0
CRANBOURNE	s5	1 1 2 1	1 1 1 2	- - - -	1 - - -	- - - 3	- - - -	- 2 - -	- 2 3 -			3 2 1 1
DARWIN	g	3 - - -	2 2 - 3.	3 2. - -	- - - 2	1 1 3 -						1 1 0 0
GEELONG	g4g	3 2 1 1	- 2 - -	1 1 - 1	- - - -	2 3 1 -	1 1 - 2	- - 3 -	- - - 3.			2 2 2 2
MACKAY	g4	- 2 - -	- 2 - 2.	- - - -	3 - 2 -	3 3 3 -	1 1 - 3	2 1 3. -				1 2 0 0
SUNSHINE COAST	h8	- - - -	2 2 - -	- - - -	- - 2. 2.	- - 3. -	3 - 3 -	- - 3. -				0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON	s6s5	- - - 3	1 1 3. 2	2 2 - 2	2 2 1 1	- - - -	- - 2. -	- - - 1	3 2 1 -			1 1 2 2

Header: w m h e = Wrat (w), Wmod (m), Whcp (h), Wexpk (e)

For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

Everyrace Website

Welcome to everyrace.com, the official website for the Wizard Formguide, Superform magazine and Online Handicapping.

The Wizard provides an in-depth, comprehensive coverage (ratings, statistics, reports, and detailed race form) for all Australian and New Zealand meetings covered by Tabcorp.

As well as the Wizard ratings, statistics, reports and detailed form, Wizard users can access the Wizard rewards program, featuring free daily Wizard Quick Form selections, the Wizard archive and generate their own Wizard Systems.

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The Wizard is an online formguide available every day from this website. It provides form and ratings for all Australian and New Zealand meetings covered by Tabcorp.

The formguide is supplied as downloadable and printable PDF files. Buying the Wizard also gives you access to the Wizard rewards program, featuring the Wizard archive and the ability to generate individualised Wizard Systems.

Wizard

The Wizard is an online formguide available every day from this website. It provides form and ratings for all Australian and New Zealand meetings covered by Tabcorp.

The formguide is supplied as downloadable and printable PDF files. Buying the Wizard also gives you access to trhe Wizard rewards program, featuring the Wizard archive and the Wizard Systems.

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17/04/2024 : A PARK

BALAKLAVA

CANTERBURY

CAULFIELD HEATH

DOOMBEN

GERALDTON

LAUNCESTON

18/04/2024 : HAWKESBURY(nr)

PAKENHAM(nr)

PINJARRA(nr)

ROCKHAMPTON(nr)

TUNCURRY(nr)

WAVERLEY(nr)

Meetings being covered by the Wizard
(s) indicates that scratchings have been processed.
(nr) indicates early fields and form without any ratings.

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For decades, Superform has been Australia's premier ratings, results, form analysis and race handicapping service.

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