Wizard Daily Report and Research - Saturday, 13 January 2024.
NEW - Wizard Plus enhancement - Wizard Performance Chart
Wizard Plus users, don't forget to check out the new direct link to our individual horse Performance Charts.
When viewing a race field, as well showing the current icons to access a horse's form details and adding a note, there is now a Graph icon that will take you straight to the horse's Wizard Plus Performance Graph.
Not only is there a graphical representation of the horse's form history, clearly showing form cycles, but by hovering over the relevant marker you get access to extensive details concerning that run.
Track Conditions (State of Track) - Results analysis
In this Daily Report, we look at the performance of the Starting Price (SP) Favourite and its success rate when racing on different track conditions.
The are four groupings:
- 1-2 firm going
- 3-4 good going
- 5-7 soft track
- 8-10 heavy track
The results cover two full racing seasons, 2021-2022 and 2022-2023.
The analysis reports on the success rate of the Starting Price Favourite in terms of:
Location - this analysis looks at this success rate:
- Overall all locations
- Metropolitan racing
- Provincial racing
- Country racing
Age - the data is further broken down into three age groups:
- 2yo gallopers
- 3yo gallopers
- 4yo+ gallopers
Table - SP favourite performance and Track Conditions (state of track)
| 2yo | Fm 1-2 | Win | win% | Gd 3-4 | Win | win% | Sf 5-7 | Win | win% | Hy 8-10 | Win | win% |
| Overall | *0 | 0 | 0.0% | 621 | 247 | 39.8% | 563 | 224 | 39.8% | 220 | 91 | 41.4% |
| Metropolitan | na | | | 281 | 106 | 37.7% | 184 | 70 | 38.0% | *78 | 27 | 34.6% |
| Provincial | na | | | 206 | 86 | 41.7% | 217 | 73 | 33.6% | *93 | 42 | 45.2% |
| Country | na | | | 134 | 55 | 41.0% | 162 | 81 | 50.0% | *49 | 22 | 44.9% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 3yo | Fm 1-2 | Win | win% | Gd 3-4 | Win | win% | Sf 5-7 | Win | win% | Hy 8-10 | Win | win% |
| Overall | *10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5411 | 2122 | 39.2% | 3628 | 1341 | 37.0% | 1351 | 492 | 36.4% |
| Metropolitan | na | | | 1349 | 479 | 35.5% | 747 | 248 | 33.2% | 280 | 89 | 31.8% |
| Provincial | na | | | 2222 | 865 | 38.9% | 1509 | 561 | 37.2% | 590 | 220 | 37.3% |
| Country | na | | | 1840 | 778 | 42.3% | 1372 | 532 | 38.8% | 481 | 183 | 38.0% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 4yo+ | Fm 1-2 | Win | win% | Gd 3-4 | Win | win% | Sf 5-7 | Win | win% | Hy 8-10 | Win | win% |
| Overall | *61 | 25 | 41.0% | 11747 | 4021 | 34.2% | 6538 | 2170 | 33.2% | 2332 | 774 | 33.2% |
| Metropolitan | na | | | 2646 | 925 | 35.0% | 1456 | 447 | 30.7% | 455 | 141 | 31.0% |
| Provincial | na | | | 3402 | 1134 | 33.3% | 2120 | 689 | 32.5% | 882 | 298 | 33.8% |
| Country | na | | | 5699 | 1962 | 34.4% | 2962 | 1034 | 34.9% | 995 | 335 | 33.7% |
* - insufficient runners for meaningful result
na - insufficient runners for meaningful result
Some take-aways from this analysis:
- 3yo gallopers on the provincial and country tracks outperform the metropolitan 3yo's.
- For 3yo gallopers there is a very marginal difference across the track conditions.
- The 3yo's outperform the 4yo+ gallopers across all of the bands.
- For 4yo+ gallopers, the strike rates are similar from good 3-4 to heavy 8-10.
- With 4yo's, on wet tracks the provincial and country results shade the metrop result.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com