The Wizard Plus Performance Chart provides a detailed overview of the racing pattern and performance levels of a horse.

The Wizard Plus Performance Graphs can be accessed from the Wizard Plus home screen, then by clicking on the Wizard Plus Performance Graphs button.  Once on the graph screen, select the meeting, then the race, and then the horse whose chart you which to examine. You will be presented with the appropriate chart, headed by the jockey silks, the horse name, horse age/sex, weight, barrier, trainer, and jockey. You can use the scroll bar to move up and down as required.

With WPC you can choose to view the ratings history of a horse using the base run ratings returned at each run, or the weight for age adjusted version of these base ratings. Just tick the WFA Ratings box to adjust the base ratings. Using WFA adjusted ratings can provide a greater insight into the ratings potential of each runner by adjusting older ratings for the improvement that is possible under the WFA Scale.

Assuming the WFA Ratings adjustment is activated, results profile shows the rating returned for each past run (and its WFA adjusted variant) and an abridged rider name. This data is colour coded … red for a win, green when second placed, and purple when placed 3rd.

You can see more information about each past run by hovering your cursor over the ratings summary. A pop-up display will provide you with this additional information:

• Track name, date & state of track
• Distance and class of race
• Finish position, number of starters, winning or beaten margin
• Race time run by the horse (not winner’s time)
• Weight carried and barrier position
• In-running positions
• Odds fluctuations
• Winner or second placegetters name
• Jockey
• Trainer
• Weight rating in kilograms – actual and WFA adjusted
• Stewards and after race reports

Below the WPC there is a repeat of some race details and a graphical, colour coded, representation of race details.

Above each vertical bar for each race is the horse’s starting price, its finish position, and its beaten margin.

Below each vertical bar is a two character course code, and the race date… day, month, year, reading downwards.

The colour coding in the bar visually highlights the location in which the race took place … metropolitan (dark blue), or provincial/ country (light blue). Also, the colour coding in the bar highlights the track conditions … firm/good (light green), soft//heavy (dark green)

Superimposed over the track location part of the bar are two numbers. The upper of the two numbers refers to the run from a spell (so, a 3 would mean the race was the horse’s third run since resuming from a 63 days spell). The lower number refers to the number of days since the horse’s previous run.

On the right hand side of the chart in the top section you will see a ratings scale (kilograms) and in the lower section is shown distance (metres).

Using the WPC will make the identification of form patterns/cycles more obvious and highlight the rating consistency, or inconsistency, of each runner.

Wizard Plus provides a snapshot overview of the superior (and inferior) performers in a race under a number of form factors using icons to highlight the best and worst performers.

The form factors highlighted, reading from left to right on the display, are:

• Overall strike rate (reflecting overall consistency)
• Distance range (including races at +/- 10% of this distance)
• Racetrack (the racecourse itself)
• Track and distance
• Jockey (record with the jockey engaged for this race)
• Runs from spell (record at this point in previous preparations)
• Rain affected tracks (includes soft and heavy going)

Three colours are used to reflect the level of past performance by each horse under these seven form factors and the success rate need to be included in this Performance display are:

• Green (minimum 33% win strike rate)
• Yellow (25% to 32% win strike rate)
• Red (less than 10% win strike rate)

Note: When you hover your cursor over an icon it will show you the actual win strike rate for the horse under that form factor.

(green) The 33% win rate was chosen to identify runners whose history to date under the form factor is as good as the win strike rate of race favourites overall.

(yellow) To lower the bar a little and show those horses that might not have reached the 33% level of performance a second benchmark has been included … 25% to 32%. Historically, some 20% of races are won by the second favourite and so we have chosen to raise that bar and highlight those runners than have outperformed the second favourite benchmark of 20% and we have set a requirement of 25% - 32% to get a yellow jersey.

Note that for the green and yellow categories there is no minimum number of runs required… a horse can qualify for inclusion with a record of 1 from 1 (green), or 8 from 24 (green), or 1 from 4 (yellow) or 6 from 24 (yellow). That changes when we consider the negative (red) category.

(red) If a horse has a win strike rate of less than 10%, and has 11 or more runs under that form factor, it will be highlighted using a red icon.

This means that horses with a form factor win record of between 10% and 24% will not have an icon in the Performance display. Essentially, they are given a ‘neutral’ performance rating.

Again, the purpose of this snapshot Performance presentation is to quicky and easily highlight the superior and inferior runners in a race.

Finally, from this Performance screen you can quickly drill down further by clicking on the horse’s Form icon, on the left hand side of the race field.

Wizard Panel The Wizard Panel shows the four top rated runners in each race. As well as showing the Wizard (Wrat) top weight-rated runners, and those on adjusted times (Wtime), it also highlights those that figure best on a number of form factors, as well as a Consensus (best overall) summary. There is also a ‘points poll’ that shows the numerical advantage that each runner enjoys, based on their ranking in each of the panels.

Wizard Weight Rating (Wizard)
This assessment takes into account relative weight advantage, the current form pattern of the horse, its record of consistency, etc.

Wizard Time Rating (Wtime)
This assessment is based on the times the horses have recorded over the last 12 months, with special attention paid to those races run at a similar distance to that of the forthcoming race. If no races have been run within 10% of the coming race then a projected time rating is calculated from the quickest (adjusted) time in the closest distance range. The actual recorded times are adjusted for track conditions, weight carried, and class of race.

The four form factors highlighted are:

Best form 12 months (previous preparation, current preparation)
These are the four horses which have produced the best weight ratings in their current or prior preparation, adjusted for Weight for Age improvement. This assessment does not discriminate between past races run over varying distances, in different classes, on different courses etc. These ratings can throw up lucrative longshot winners.

Recent Form
This assessment concentrates on a horse’s last three runs and penalises a horse which is resuming from a spell. The key here is ‘recency’.

Distance
This assessment focuses on the last three runs each horse has had over a distance that is within 10% of the distance of the forthcoming race. If a horse has not raced over such a distance the Wizard makes an estimate of its likely distance ability.

Class
This analysis concentrates on those past races which are similar in quality to the forthcoming race. Where a horse has insufficient starts in similar quality races the Wizard makes its own assessment of the horse’s likely ‘class-ability’ rating.

Consensus
This panel summarises the overall chances of the better rated horses, as recorded in the other six panels. Each top rated horse in the other panels is allocated 4 points, each second best rated horse 3 points, and each third rates gets 2 points, and the fourth rated gets 1 point. These points are totalled and the horses with the highest number of points are classified as the ‘best overall’ runners. (Note: The full listing of the rated horses and their points is to be found in the ‘Poll’.)

Display Race Form

By clicking the left hand side icon you will gain access to the Wizard form history details for the horse. As well as detailed information on past runs there is also statistical information with respect to jockey, trainer, winning distances, form cycle (runs from spell), and win and place stats for career, current and previous season, betting history, company performance.

(Note: Other key stats – state of track stats, for example – are to be found in the Wizard Header.

Notes

You can add notes on any runner and these notes will be available to you when the horse is entered in forthcoming events, as well as the race currently under examination.

Tab Number

The racebook/Tab number for each runner.

Horse Name

The name of the runner.

Age and Sex

The age and sex of the horse.

Wrat (Wizard Rating)

This Wrat ratings assessment takes into account relative weight handicapping advantage and is adjusted (weighted) for the following factors: the quality of current form, barrier position, form cycle, recency, distance ability, consistency, jockey, and trainer.

In the 2022-23 race season The Wizard rated 17,199 races in Australia that were covered by Tabs and the corporate bookmakers.

In this 2022-23 season the Wrat 100 pointer (the top rated runner in the race) was successful in 26% of those races, at odds ranging from odds-on to longer than 20/1 (some 17% of those 100 pointers had a starting price between 6/1 and 20/1).

The two highest rated Wrat horses won 44% of those 17,199 races between them.

The long term history of the Wrat shows that, on a seasonal 12 months basis, it can be expected to have an annual strike rate between 25% and 27%.

Each ratings point can be considered equal to one third (1/3) of a length. Therefore, a horse rated 97 can be seen as rating one length worse than the 100 pointer.

Wmod

The Wizard Wmod assessment is based on a regression analysis of race results over a 10 year period.

The main factors feeding into this assessment were relative weight advantage, age, sex, consistency, earnings, current form, best form in past 12 months, distance ability, barrier position, form cycle, jockey, and trainer. There can be equal top rated in the Wmod assessment, though this is not normally the case.

In the 2022-23 season the Wmod 100 pointer (the top rated runner in the race) was successful in 24.7% of those races, at odds ranging from odds-on to longer than 20/1 (some 22% of those 100 pointers had a starting price between 6/1 and 20/1).

Each ratings point can be considered equal to one third (1/3) of a length. Therefore, a horse rated 97 can be seen as rating one length worse than the 100 pointer.

Whcp

The Wizard Whcp assessment is an almost pure relative weight assessment with minimal input from other factors. The only adjustments to the base ratings analysis involve bonuses or penalties for form cycle (expected improvement, deterioration), consistency, barrier position, and jockey ability.

One thing to note about this Whcp assessment is that equal top rated runners can occur. That is, you can have more than one 100 pointer in a race. With this traditional relative weight handicapping analysis we do not employ a ‘supplementary adjustment’ to ensure that there is only one 100 point (top rated) runner in a race as we do for Wrat.

Because there are sometimes equal top rated runners in the Whcp category the overall strike rate for these 100 pointers is lower. In the 2022-23 season the win strike rate was 20%. The odds range of Whcp winners was larger, with the longest priced 100 pointer winner starting at 50/1.

Each ratings point can be considered equal to one third (1/3) of a length. Therefore, a horse rated 97 can be seen as rating one length worse than the 100 pointer.

Wexpk

The Wexpk analysis assesses the horse on its best (weight for age adjusted) rating from its previous preparation as well as its current preparation. It is looking for the horse that can prevail if it runs to its proven best form.

As with Whcp, the Wexpk assessment can return equal top rated runners, that is, more than one 100 pointer in a race.

Also, as with Whcp, the Wexpk assessment is an almost pure relative weight assessment with minimal input from other factors. The only adjustments to the WFA adjusted base ratings analysis involve bonuses or penalties for consistency, barrier position, and jockey ability.

Given the nature of this assessment, and the possibility of finding top rated runners off older form, and therefore not currently in the public eye, it is no surprise to see the overall win strike rate lower than that of the other assessments which concentrate on current form. In the 2022-23 season the win strike rate for Wexpk was 14.7%%. The odds range of Whcp winners was skewed to longer odds, with the longest priced 100 pointer winner paying $83.00.

Each ratings point can be considered equal to one third (1/3) of a length. Therefore, a horse rated 97 can be seen as rating one length worse than the 100 pointer.

Wjktr

As well as providing a ratings based analysis of a race via Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk, the Wizard also provides a jockey/trainer assessment.

This assessment is designed to reflect the ‘current’ level of success enjoyed by each of the jockey/trainer combinations.

The key components in the Wjktr evaluation are… recency (assessment is weighted towards more recent results), frequency (the more observations the higher the efficacy rating), performance vs price (weighted to favour results which outperform price expectation ).

When a combination’s level of performance exceeds our jockey/trainer benchmark the runner will have an asterisk placed in the Wjktr column. If more than one combination in the race meets or exceeds the Wizard benchmark then each will earn an asterisk.

As with, for example, Whcp, because there is sometimes more than one qualifier in the Wjktr category the overall strike rate is lower than the more restrictive Wrat single ‘top rater’. In the 2022-23 season the win strike rate was a 20%. The odds range of Wjktr winners was larger, with the longest priced winner paying $63.00.

Wfilt

The Wizard also examines and reports on some key positives and negatives facing each runner in the race.

The ten major factors covered in this FILTER analysis are Wrat, age, form cycle (runs from a spell), consistency, form last 12 months, jockey, trainer, running style, distance, wet track form. We apply minimum requirements to each of these factors, and when a runner meets or exceeds that standard it earns a positive score, when it fails to meet the standard it earns a negative score.

For example, if a horse met the benchmark standard for 12 factors, but failed to meet the standard for 3 other factors, then it would get a Wfilt score of +9. If, on the other hand it scored negatively on 12 but did score positively on 3, then it would have a score of -9.

In total there are 15 factors that are examined, the 10 listed above, and five other factors judged as being of somewhat lesser importance for this analysis. Not all horses can be evaluated under all 15 factors, as some factors are not present in the horse’s form history. It is unusual for a score of more than 11 positives (+11) to be assigned to any individual horse.

Experience has shown that score of +7 and above is meaningful. Any positive score is better than a negative score, but it is worth paying closer attention to those runners with a Wfilt score of +7 or more.

As with, for example, Whcp, because there is sometimes more than one qualifier in the Wfilt category the overall strike rate is lower than the more restrictive Wrat single ‘top rater’. Even so, in the 2022-23 season the win strike rate was a solid 20%. Also, the odds range of Wfilt winners was larger, with the longest priced winner paying $88.00.

Wneg

The Wizard (Wneg) analysis of negative factors facing each runner is similar in concept to the Wizard filter analysis (Wfilt), but is more demanding.

With Wneg it is a binary decision, either the factor is negative, or it is not.

There are 10 factors considered… age, form cycle (run from spell), jockey, trainer, Wrat ranking, consistency, quality of form in last 12 months, distance, running style, and class change.

What is highlighted in the Wizard Plus Panel are any runners that have zero negatives for this race.

Again, because there is sometimes more than one qualifier in the Wneg category the overall strike rate is lower than the more restrictive Wrat single ‘top rater’. In the 2022-23 season the win strike rate was 18.5%. As to the odds range of Wneg winners, the longest priced winner paid $45.00.

Aodds

The odds in this column are the Wizard’s assessed odds for each runner based primarily on the Wrat rating, but also incorporating a contribution from the Wtime rating.

The Wizard market is set to 100% and is therefore more open than the typical pre-post market which can be 130% or more, and the final starting price odds market which is usually close to 120%.

Rstyle

The running style of a horse is often an important factor in deciding the final outcome of a race, with history showing that horses that race in or near to the lead, especially by the home turn, enjoy an advantage over backmarkers. (Check of the Wizard track profiles to confirm this observation.)

The coding used in the Rstyle column is as follows: F (frontrunner), O (on pace), M (midfield and off pace), B (backmarker).

The numeric following the alpha code is the possible in-running position of the horse given its more recent race history.

Trainer

The name of the trainer or the training partnership.

As well as providing Wizard Plus users with an unrivalled insight into the ratings and form history details of every runner, Wizard Plus also provides a unique insight into significant betting market action each race morning via a Wizard Watch Morning Movers report which is made available on the Wizard Plus website around 11:30am each race day.

You get the Wizard Watch Morning Movers file by…

First clicking on WIZARD PLUS FILES dd/mm/yy in the right hand panel of the Wizard Plus screen.

Wizard Watch Morning Movers appear under the ALL MEETINGS option, not an individual race meeting.

The single file covering all meetings is there … Wizard Watch Morning Movers (date of the meeting). This file is a pdf file and can be viewed on the screen or printed for easy reference during the afternoon.

Now, some more about these Wizard Watch Morning Movers…

Whilst most attention is paid to betting action and price changes in the last half our of betting on a race, there is good reason to believe that movements in the market on race morning can be of significance. Well, Wizard research indicates that this is the case.

Accordingly, the Wizard monitors race morning price changes and betting volume trends over the first 3 hours of race day betting to determine which horses are ‘anticipated’ to run above earlier pre-post expectations and which horses have had their higher probabilities confirmed.

The Wizard has developed algorithms that identify those horses that are likely to run-to or exceed early expectations and through Wizard Watch Morning Movers makes this information available exclusively to Wizard Plus users. This information can be used in conjunction with traditional ratings analysis, or those horses identified as the significant Morning Movers can be supported on their own merits.

Supplementing traditional form analysis with the Morning Movers price/volume race morning action has the potential to significantly improve the accuracy of race assessment.

The Wizard Watch Morning Movers report does not just give the name and number of the horses it also includes on the report some key details from other Wizard Plus pages … the name of the trainer and jockey, the four key Wizard ratings (Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk) and also from the Wizard Plus panel there are the Wjktr, Wfilt and Wneg indicators. Finally, the race distance and class of race is included.

Given the significance of this early/informed market action, the odds about the Wizard Watch Morning Movers will naturally skew towards the shorter odds, but this is compensated by the strike rate. Double figure odds about successful Market Movers are rare, but good each-way odds winners are backable.

Wizard Essentials Report

Reading from left to right …

Filter

The Wizard examines and reports on some key positives and negatives facing each runner in the race.

The ten major factors covered in this FILTER analysis are Wrat, age, form cycle (runs from a spell), consistency, form last 12 months, jockey, trainer, running style, distance, wet track form. We apply minimum requirements to each of these factors, and when a runner meets or exceeds that standard it earns a positive score, when it fails to meet the standard it earns a negative score.

For example, if a horse met the benchmark standard for 12 factors, but failed to meet the standard for 3 other factors, then it would get a Filter score of +9. If, on the other hand it scored negatively on 12 but did score positively on 3, then it would have a score of -9.

In total there are 15 factors that are examined, the 10 listed above, and five other factors judged as being of somewhat lesser importance for this analysis. Not all horses can be evaluated under all 15 factors, as some factors are not present in the horse’s form history. It is unusual for a score of more than 11 positives (+11) to be assigned to any individual horse.

Experience has shown that score of +7 and above is meaningful. Any positive score is better than a negative score, but it is worth paying closer attention to those runners with a Filter score of +7 or more.

In this Wizard Essentials report the Filter score and ranking for each runner is shown. In the Wizard Plus Panel only the horses with a filter score of 7+ and ranked number 1 are highlighted.

Horse Name

Name of the horse

Neg (Negatives)

The Wizard analysis of negative factors facing each runner is similar in concept to the Wizard filter analysis, but is more demanding.

With negatives it is a binary decision, either the factor is negative, or it is not.

There are 10 factors considered… age, form cycle (run from spell), jockey, trainer, Wrat ranking, consistency, quality of form in last 12 months, distance, running style, and class change.

Obviously, the lower the number of negatives, the better suited the horse should be in the race.

In the Wizard Essentials Report the Negatives score for each runner is shown. In the Wizard Plus Panel only the horses with zero negatives are highlighted.

Age / Sex

The age of the horse (years) and sex of the horse (c = 2yo or 3yo male, g = 4yo+ male gelding, h = 4yo+ male stallion, f = 2yo or 3yo female, m = 4yo+ female).

Form

The finishing positions of the horse in its last four starts.

The latest run is the number on the right hand side of the sequence, the second last run is to its left, the run three starts back is the number third from the right hand side, and the number on the left hand side of the sequence is the run four starts back.

Where there has been a break of 63 days or more since the horse’s previous start an ‘x’ indicates a spell has occurred.

Where a horse has finished 10th or worse a ‘0’ (zero) is used to indicate that fact.

RFS (Runs From Spell)

If the horse is resuming, or having its first ever race start, the number shown will be ‘1’. That is, this run is the horse’s first start this preparation.

A figure ‘2’ would indicate the horse is racing second-up from a spell, or having its second career start. And so on.

With respect to ‘runs from a spell’ it is often very useful to know if there is any pattern of success for the horse at this stage of its previous preparations. We limit this analysis to its previous campaigns where it has had as many starts from a spell as it will be having in this race. 

If the horse is resuming after a spell, and has won at least once at this same stage of a previous preparation an ‘F’ will be used to indicate this fact and a figure 1 will be used to indicate to which preparation it refers. (Note we look back for three preparations that have a suitable number of runs. If a horse has a preparation with insufficient runs for a match, we continue searching earlier preps to find one that does, until we have three preps – assuming, of course, that a horse has that many preps.)

Examples:

Fxx1 = won first-up in its last prep but was unplaced (x) in its two previous preps

Fo1x = unplaced (x) first-up last prep, won first-up (1) two preps back, placed (o) first-up three preps back

If the horse is racing second-up, or further into its preparation, and has won at least once at this same stage in three previous campaigns a ‘P’ will be used. The number preceding the P-code is the number of runs from a spell this start is coming into this race.

Example:

3 Pxo1 = third-up … won third-up last prep, placed third-up two preps back, unplaced third-up three preps back.

EOdds (Prepost market)

The Wizard Essentials prepost market is different to other prepost markets in that it is a composite, created by combining a number of different sources into one market. Some of these sources are publicly available markets but others are private tissues, the latter long used by bookmakers, professional punters, and other market makers.

There is another difference between the normally available prepost markets and the Wizard prepost market. Other prepost markets typically add up to 127% to 135% after totalling the percentage/price assessment of each runner. The Wizard prepost market is always set to 120% (can vary a little due to rounding) as this 120% better reflects the final starting price market percentage.

In the Essentials prepost market column you will find the prepost odds for each runner and the rankings.

Note: The Wizard prepost market should not be confused with the Wizard assessed odds. The prepost market is designed to reflect the likely shape of the market during actual betting, whereas the Wizard assessed odds is the Wizard’s pricing of the field based on the Wrat and Wtime ratings.

Wrat

This Wrat ratings assessment takes into account relative weight handicapping advantage and is adjusted (weighted) for the following factors: the quality of current form, barrier position, form cycle, recency, distance ability, consistency, jockey, and trainer.

The top rated runner in the race has a rating of 100. A runner having its first race start has no Wrat score.

Each ratings point can be considered equal to one third (1/3) of a length. Therefore, a horse rated 97 can be seen as rating one length worse than the 100 pointer.

As well as showing the ratings score, the ranking of each runner is also included.

In the 2022-23 race season The Wizard rated 17,199 races in Australia that were covered by Tabs and the corporate bookmakers,

In this 2022-23 season the Wrat 100 pointer (the top rated runner in the race) was successful in 26% of those races, at odds ranging from odds-on to longer than 20/1 (some 17% of those 100 pointers had a starting price between 6/1 and 20/1).

The two highest rated Wrat horses won 44% of those 17,199 races between them.

The long term history of the Wrat shows that, on a seasonal 12 months basis, it can be expected to have an annual strike rate between 25% and 27%.

Wmod

The Wizard Wmod assessment is based on a regression analysis of race results over a 10 year period.

The main factors feeding into this assessment were relative weight advantage, age, sex, consistency, earnings, current form, best form in past 12 months, distance ability, barrier position, form cycle, jockey, and trainer.

The top rated runner in the race has a rating of 100. With Wmod there can be more than one 100 pointer in a race.

Each ratings point can be considered equal to one third (1/3) of a length. Therefore, a horse rated 97 can be seen as rating one length worse than the 100 pointer.

As well as showing the ratings score, the ranking of each runner is also included.

In the 2022-23 season the Wmod 100 pointer (the top rated runner in the race) was successful in 24.7% of those races, at odds ranging from odds-on to longer than 20/1 (some 22% of those 100 pointers had a starting price between 6/1 and 20/1).

Whcp

The Wizard Whcp assessment is an almost pure relative weight assessment with minimal input from other factors. The only adjustments to the base ratings analysis involve bonuses or penalties for form cycle (expected improvement, deterioration), consistency, barrier position, and jockey ability.

One thing to note about this Whcp assessment is that equal top rated runners can occur. That is, you can have more than one 100 pointer in a race. With this traditional relative weight handicapping analysis we do not employ a ‘supplementary adjustment’ to ensure that there is only one 100 point (top rated) runner in a race as we do for Wrat and Wmod.

The top rated runners in the race will all have a rating of 100. A runner having its first race start has no Whcp score.

Each ratings point can be considered equal to one third (1/3) of a length. Therefore, a horse rated 97 can be seen as rating one length worse than the 100 pointer.

As well as showing the ratings score, the ranking of each runner is also included.

Because there are sometimes equal top rated runners in the Whcp category the overall strike rate for these 100 pointers is lower. In the 2022-23 season the win strike rate was 20%. The odds range of Whcp winners was larger, with the longest priced 100 pointer winner starting at 50/1.

Wexpk (expected peak)

The Wexpk (expected peak) analysis assesses the horse on its best (weight for age adjusted) rating from its previous preparation as well as its current preparation. It is looking for the horse that can win if it runs to its proven best form.

As with Whcp, the Wexpk assessment can return equal top rated runners, that is, more than one 100 pointer in a race.

The top rated runners in the race will all have a rating of 100. A runner having its first race start has no Whcp score.

Each ratings point can be considered equal to one third (1/3) of a length. Therefore, a horse rated 97 can be seen as rating one length worse than the 100 pointer.

As well as showing the ratings score, the ranking of each runner is also included.

Also, as with Whcp, the Wexpk assessment is an almost pure relative weight assessment with minimal input from other factors. The only adjustments to the WFA adjusted base ratings analysis involve bonuses or penalties for consistency, barrier position, and jockey ability.

Given the nature of this assessment, and the possibility of finding top rated runners off older form, and therefore not currently in the public eye, it is no surprise to see the overall win strike rate lower than that of the other assessments which concentrate on current form. In the 2022-23 season the win strike rate for Wexpk was 14.7%%. The odds range of Whcp winners was skewed to longer odds, with the longest priced 100 pointer winner paying $83.00.

ExPk Date Prep

The ExpectedPeak rating can be drawn from either the current preparation or the previous preparation.

To make it easier to see where the horse has recorded its past peak rating this Essentials column shows the date of that run and whether it was run in its last preparation or the current campaign.

For example:

011221 = 1 December 2021 was when the horse recorded its peak (weight for age adjusted) rating.

1-5 = peak rating recorded last preparation and this start will be five runs since that start and so it is having its 6th run since that expected peak was recorded.

C-2 = peak rating recorded in current preparation and this start will be its second run since that expected peak was recorded.

CarW% (career win percentage)

In this column Essentials shows the number of career wins and the current win percentage. Horses without a win (maidens) will have no details recorded in this column.

For example:

2  10.5 = 2 wins and a win percentage of 10.5%

5  40.0 = 5 wins and a win percentage of 40%.

WPS LY (wins-places-starts in last year)

In this column Essentials shows the number of wins and minor places (2nd and 3rd) and the number of starts recorded by the horse in the past 12 months.

For example:

2.4.10 = 2 wins, 4 places (either 2nd or 3rd), from 10 starts over the past 12 months

0.3.12 = zero wins, 3 places, from 12 starts over the past 12 months.

TCDW (track, class, distance, wet going)

This Essentials column has a quick reference guide as to how a runner has performed under four key conditions … racetrack, class, distance, going.

The key to these abbreviations is as follows.

Jockey

Name of the jockey engaged to ride the horse.

Joc/Hor (jockey/horse)

This Essentials column shows the record of the jockey when riding this horse.

For example:

2-0-2 = two wins from two rides

0-5-9 = zero wins, 5 placings (2nd or 3rd) from 9 rides

1-7-13 = 1 win, 7 minor places, from 13 rides

Trainer

The name of the trainer or training partnership.

J 12m (jockey, last 12 months)

In this Essentials column we show the jockey’s win percentage over the past 12 months when riding the race favourite.

By concentrating on the win percentage of race favourites we achieve a more equitable way of comparing jockeys. If one was to include all rides over the past 12 months there will be ‘lesser light’ jockeys who ride a preponderance of longer priced horses and are therefore disadvantaged on that head-to-head comparison with higher profile jockeys riding many more shorter priced runners.

Where a jockey had ridden fewer than 10 race favourites in the past 12 months a minus sign (-) follows the win percentage.

Examples:

38 = 38% win strike rate on race favourite in the last year

22- = 22% win percentage on race favourites, but has had fewer than 10 rides

0 = zero wins on a race favourite in the past 12 months.

Where there is 0- it means the jockey has been unsuccessful on the race favourites ridden in the past 12 months, and there have been fewer than 10 such rides.

Given that 30% to 33% of race favourites win their race (the actual percentage depends on various circumstances) this statistic provides a quick insight into jockey ability when the playing field is (relatively) level.

T 12m (trainer, last 12 months)

In this Essentials column we show the trainer’s win percentage over the past 12 months when training the race favourite.

By concentrating on the win percentage of race favourites we achieve a more equitable way of comparing trainers. If one was to include all the trainer’s runner over the past 12 months there will be trainers with small and less well credentialled teams who train a preponderance of longer priced horses and are therefore disadvantaged on that head-to-head comparison with the bigger and better resourced stables that can produce many more shorter priced runners, and therefore achieve a higher overall win strike rate.

Where a trainer has had fewer than 10 race favourites in the past 12 months a minus sign (-) follows the win percentage.

Examples:

38 = 38% win strike rate with the race favourite in the last year

22- = 22% win percentage with the race favourite, but has had fewer than 10 runners

0 = zero wins with a race favourite in the past 12 months.

Where there is 0- it means the trainer has been unsuccessful with the race favourites in the past 12 months, and there have been fewer than 10 such runners.

Given that 30% to 33% of race favourites win their race (the actual percentage depends on various circumstances) this statistic provides a quick insight into jockey ability when the playing field is (relatively) level.

J-T 12m (jockey/trainer combination in last 12 months)

In this Essentials column we show how well the jockey/trainer combination has performed with the race favourite over the past 12 months.

Where a jockey/trainer have combined with fewer than 10 race favourites in the past 12 months a minus sign (-) follows the win percentage.

Examples:

38 = the combination has a 38% win strike rate with the race favourites in the last year

22- = a 22% win percentage with the race favourite, but has had fewer than 10 runners

0 = zero wins with a race favourite in the past 12 months.

Where there is 0- it means the jockey/trainer combination has been unsuccessful with race favourites in the past 12 months, but there have been fewer than 10 such runners.

BP (barrier position)

The barrier position.

RS (running style)

The running style of a horse is often an important factor in deciding the final outcome of a race, with history showing that horses that race in or near to the lead, especially by the home turn, enjoy an advantage over backmarkers. (Check of the Wizard track profiles to confirm this observation.)

The coding used in the Rstyle column is as follows: F (frontrunner), O (on pace), M (midfield and off pace), B (backmarker).

The numeric following the alpha code is the possible in-running position of the horse given its more recent race history.

FldStr (Field Strength)

The Field Strength (FS) figure measures the difference between the quality of the field against which the horse raced last start and will confront in the forthcoming race. 

Bear in mind that races of exactly the same class can vary in strength.

This means the level of competition the horse is meeting in a Weight For Age Group 2 tomorrow could be 1.5kg “tougher” than the WFA Group 2 field it raced at its last start and so on.

In the FS column +1.5 means tomorrow’s field is 1.5kg stronger than the horse met last start. On the other hand, -2.0 means tomorrow’s race is 2kg “weaker” than its last start, thereby making the task of the horse easier than might be expected given that it is racing in the “same” class.

Course (racetrack)

Shown here is the win – minor placings – starts record of each horse at todays racetrack.

Dist (distance)

Shown here is the win – minor placings – starts record of each horse at this distance, or over a distance within 10% of the distance of the forthcoming race.

Crse+Dst (course and distance)

Shown here is the Win – minor placings – starts record of the horse at this course and the distance, or within 10% of the distance of the forthcoming race.