Wizard Daily Report and Research - Wednesday, 17 January 2024.
First Four Favourites - Days last run, since last win.
Continuing the Daily Reports that are now focusing on the first four Starting Price (SP) favourites.
The two factors reported on today are:
- Days since last run
- Days since last win
Additionally, the analysis reports on the success rate of the first four Starting Price Favourites in terms of:
Location:
- Metropolitan venues
- Provincial meetings
- Country meetings
The days ranges:
- 1 7 days
- 8 - 14
- 15 - 21
- 22 - 28
- 29 - 59
- 60 - 179
- 180 - 365
- Over 365 days
The period covered is the last five years.
Table 1 - First four favourites - metropolitan, provincial, country - days since last run.
| metropolitan | 1st fav | 2nd fav | 3rd fav | 4th fav |
| 1 - 7 days | 32.4% | 19.0% | 13.2% | 10.1% |
| 8 - 14 | 34.0% | 19.1% | 13.1% | 9.9% |
| 15 - 21 | 32.2% | 19.6% | 13.0% | 9.5% |
| 22 - 28 | 31.0% | 18.1% | 11.9% | 10.4% |
| 29 - 59 | 31.0% | 17.4% | 13.6% | 9.3% |
| 60 - 179 | 34.1% | 19.4% | 12.4% | 9.9% |
| 180-365 | 33.3% | 20.3% | 12.2% | na |
| over 365 | na | na | na | na |
| | | | | |
| | | | | |
| provincial | 1st fav | 2nd fav | 3rd fav | 4th fav |
| 1 - 7 days | 31.6% | 20.2% | 14.5% | 9.2% |
| 8 - 14 | 35.2% | 19.7% | 13.5% | 9.2% |
| 15 - 21 | 35.1% | 20.0% | 13.4% | 9.6% |
| 22 - 28 | 33.6% | 21.0% | 13.5% | 9.4% |
| 29 - 59 | 33.5% | 18.6% | 13.5% | 9.2% |
| 60 - 179 | 36.4% | 19.1% | 14.0% | 9.8% |
| 180-365 | 35.8% | 20.7% | 14.4% | 9.5% |
| over 365 | na | na | na | na |
| | | | | |
| country | 1st fav | 2nd fav | 3rd fav | 4th fav |
| 1 - 7 days | 33.0% | 21.0% | 14.7% | 11.5% |
| 8 - 14 | 33.5% | 20.0% | 13.7% | 10.3% |
| 15 - 21 | 34.1% | 19.1% | 13.4% | 10.2% |
| 22 - 28 | 33.5% | 19.6% | 13.5% | 9.8% |
| 29 - 59 | 33.1% | 20.6% | 14.5% | 10.2% |
| 60 - 179 | 35.4% | 19.8% | 13.9% | 9.0% |
| 180-365 | 35.6% | 18.4% | 12.3% | 8.7% |
| over 365 | na | na | na | na |
Table 2 - First four favourites - metropolitan, provincial, country - days since last win.
| metropolitan | 1st fav | 2nd fav | 3rd fav | 4th fav |
| 1 - 7 days | na | na | na | na |
| 8 - 14 | 36.6% | 19.8% | 12.9% | 9.6% |
| 15 - 21 | 34.1% | 20.6% | 13.3% | na |
| 22 - 28 | 32.2% | 18.0% | 13.0% | 10.9% |
| 29 - 59 | 31.5% | 17.8% | 13.2% | 10.4% |
| 60 - 179 | 30.9% | 17.8% | 12.4% | 10.4% |
| 180-365 | 32.0% | 19.4% | 12.6% | 9.6% |
| over 365 | 27.9% | 18.9% | 13.6% | 10.0% |
| | | | | |
| provincial | 1st fav | 2nd fav | 3rd fav | 4th fav |
| 1 - 7 days | na | na | na | na |
| 8 - 14 | 36.3% | 20.4% | 12.0% | na |
| 15 - 21 | 36.5% | 21.3% | 13.4% | 9.1% |
| 22 - 28 | 36.0% | 21.4% | 14.7% | 10.0% |
| 29 - 59 | 33.5% | 20.4% | 13.9% | 10.4% |
| 60 - 179 | 32.1% | 18.4% | 13.8% | 9.3% |
| 180-365 | 30.9% | 19.5% | 13.4% | 10.1% |
| over 365 | 30.3% | 18.3% | 14.8% | 9.9% |
| | | | | |
| country | 1st fav | 2nd fav | 3rd fav | 4th fav |
| 1 - 7 days | 38.2% | 22.9% | na | na |
| 8 - 14 | 36.8% | 21.2% | 12.5% | 10.2% |
| 15 - 21 | 35.5% | 18.8% | 13.7% | 11.9% |
| 22 - 28 | 32.7% | 20.9% | 13.6% | 11.3% |
| 29 - 59 | 33.8% | 20.6% | 14.7% | 10.8% |
| 60 - 179 | 31.9% | 19.3% | 14.6% | 9.7% |
| 180-365 | 30.4% | 19.2% | 13.6% | 10.3% |
| over 365 | 29.7% | 19.3% | 13.7% | 9.5% |
* - insufficient runners for meaningful result
na - insufficient runners for meaningful result
Some take-aways from this analysis:
- 1st and 2nd fav days last run horses back in 1-21 days slightly outperform on metro and provincial tracks.
- 1st fav fresh horses (back after 60 or more days) do well; equal or better when compared to other categories.
- The results for 3rd and 4th favourites similar across all categories.
- Generally preferable to have a last start winner returning within 28 days for 1st and 2nd favourites.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com