Wizard Daily Report and Research - Wednesday, 27 March 2024.
- Wizard Ratings Results for Tuesday, March 26
- Wizard Plus Rating (Wmod) discussion
Wizard Ratings Report - Tuesday, March 26
The following table shows the where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
| Tue 26.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| GEELONG | g4 | 3 3 3 3 | 1 1 1 2 | 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 1 1 | 2 1 1 1 | - - - 1. | 3 - 1. 3. | - - - - | | | 3 4 5. 4. |
| ROCKHAMPTON | s7h8 | 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 3 1 | 1 1 3 - | 3 2 3. - | 3 1 2 3 | 1 2 3. 1 | - - - 1. | | | | 4 4 1 4. |
| TAREE | h8 | 3 2 - - | 2 2 1 - | 2 2 2. - | 1 1 1 - | 3 2 1 - | 2 - 1 2. | 2 1 - - | - - 3. 3 | | | 1 2 4 0 |
The table shows the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk in that order. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
For example, a cell entry of 1 2. 3 would read as:
.. 1 .. rated 1st (100 pointer) on Wrat
.. - .. not rated in the top three on Wmod
.. 2. .. rated equal 2nd on Whcp (the full stop after the numeric indicates it was rated equal 2nd)
.. 3 .. rated 3rd on Wexpk
As well as the results for individual races there a summary for each meeting which shows the number of winners for each of the Wizard and Wizard Plus ratings. An entry showing '4 3 0 2.' would be read as follows:
.. 4 .. 4 of the winners were rated 1st on Wrat
.. 3 .. 3 of the winners were rated 1st on Wmod
.. 0 .. no winner was rated 1st on Whcp
.. 2. .. 2 winners were rated 1st on Wexpk but at least one of these was an equal top-rater
With respect to equal-rated runners: This does not happen with Wrat as we have an algorithm that separates runners by adjusting the base ratings by career-record and form-related factors. The same procedure is applied with the Wmod, but not as extensively, and occasionally equal-rated horses could appear, but infrequently.
Where equal-rated runners are more common is in the ratings analysis that is basically pure weight handicapping, the Whcp and Wexpk analyses.
Wmod - available in Wizard Plus
The Wizard Plus Wmod assessment is based on a regression analysis of race results over a 10-year period. The main factors feeding into this assessment were relative weight advantage, age, sex, consistency, earnings, current form, best form in past 12 months, distance ability, barrier position, form cycle, jockey, and trainer.
Over the past two racing seasons and the current season the Wizard Plus Wmod has returned the following results.
- Season 2021-22 - 16,658 runners - 4,318 winners - 25.9%
- Season 2022-23 - 17,140 runners - 4,249 winners - 24.8%
- Season 2023-24 - 11,046 runners - 2,758 winners - 25.0% (to 25 March 2024)
I am currently processing the data for these three seasons and examining the synergistic relationships that might exist between Wrat and the other three rating algorithms we publish in Wizard Plus (Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk). The report will be available this coming Friday.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com