Wizard Daily Report and Research - Thursday, 28 March 2024.
*** Tomorrow *** - Improving the win strike rate with Wizard Ratings
- Wizard Ratings Results for Wednesday, March 27
- Wizard Plus Ratings - (Whcp, Wexpk) discussion
Wizard Ratings Report - Wednesday, March 27
The following table shows the where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
| Wed 27.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | R9 | R10 | meeting |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | | | w m h e |
| GERALDTON | g3 | 1 1 1 2. | - 3 3. - | 2 - 1 2 | 1 1 1 1 | 1 2 1. - | 1 1 1. 2. | 3 3 2 - | | | | 4 3 5. 1 |
| PIONEER PARK | g | 3 3 1 1 | 2 1 - - | 2 2 1 - | - - - - | 3 3 2 1 | 2 3 1 1 | - - - - | | | | 0 1 3 3 |
| RANDWICK INS | g4 | 3 3 3 3 | - - - 1 | - - - - | 3 - - - | 2 1 3 - | 2 1 - - | - - 3. - | 2 2 1 - | | | 0 2 1 1 |
| SANDOWN-LAKESIDE | g4 | - 3. 3. 3. | 1 2. - - | 2 1 3 - | 1 1 1 - | - 3 3. 2 | - - 3 - | 1 1 1 2. | 1 2 - - | | | 4 3 2 0 |
| STRATHALBYN | g4 | 3 - 3 - | - - - - | 1 1 2 1 | - - 3 1 | - - - - | 1 1 1. - | 1 1 1 - | | | | 3 3 2. 2 |
The table shows the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk in that order. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
For example, a cell entry of 1 2. 3 would read as:
.. 1 .. rated 1st (100 pointer) on Wrat
.. - .. not rated in the top three on Wmod
.. 2. .. rated equal 2nd on Whcp (the full stop after the numeric indicates it was rated equal 2nd)
.. 3 .. rated 3rd on Wexpk
As well as the results for individual races there a summary for each meeting which shows the number of winners for each of the Wizard and Wizard Plus ratings. An entry showing '4 3 0 2.' would be read as follows:
.. 4 .. 4 of the winners were rated 1st on Wrat
.. 3 .. 3 of the winners were rated 1st on Wmod
.. 0 .. no winner was rated 1st on Whcp
.. 2. .. 2 winners were rated 1st on Wexpk but at least one of these was an equal top-rater
With respect to equal-rated runners: This does not happen with Wrat as we have an algorithm that separates runners by adjusting the base ratings by career-record and form-related factors. The same procedure is applied with the Wmod, but not as extensively, and occasionally equal-rated horses could appear, but infrequently.
Where equal-rated runners are more common is in the ratings analysis that is basically pure weight handicapping, the Whcp and Wexpk analyses.
Whcp and Wexpk - available in Wizard Plus
The Wizard Plus Whcp assessment is an almost pure relative weight assessment with minimal input from other factors. The only adjustments to the base ratings analysis involve bonuses or penalties for form cycle (expected improvement, deterioration), consistency, barrier position, and jockey ability.
Over the past two racing seasons and the current season the Wizard Plus Whcp has returned the following results.
- Season 2021-22 - 14,586 runners - 3,127 winners - 21.4%
- Season 2022-23 - 14,951 runners - 3,159 winners - 21.1%
- Season 2023-24 - 9,567 runners - 1,973 winners - 20.6% (to 25 March 2024)
The Wizard Plus Wexpk analysis assesses the horse on its best (weight for age adjusted) rating from its previous preparation as well as its current preparation. It is looking for the horse that can prevail if it runs to its proven best form.
As with Whcp the Wexpk assessment is an almost pure relative weight assessment with minimal input from other factors. The only adjustments to the WFA adjusted base ratings analysis involve bonuses or penalties for consistency, barrier position, and jockey ability.
Over the past two racing seasons and the current season the Wizard Plus Wexpk has returned the following results.
- Season 2021-22 - 14,765 runners - 2,171 winners - 14.7%
- Season 2022-23 - 15,166 runners - 2,280 winners - 15.0%
- Season 2023-24 - 9,772 runners - 1,451 winners - 14.8% (to 25 March 2024)
Note: The analyses for Whcp and Wexpk above are confined to those races where there is only one clear first selection after scratchings. Races where there are equal first selections, which can happen with Whcp and Wexpk, have been excluded.
*** I am currently processing the data for these three seasons and examining the synergistic relationships that might exist between Wrat and the other three rating algorithms we publish in Wizard Plus (Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk). The report will be available tomorrow.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com