Wizard Daily Report and Research - Monday, 1 April 2024.
- Wizard Ratings Results for week ending March 31
- Trainer and Jockey Statistics Report - Bjorn Baker
Wizard Ratings Report week ending Sunday, March 31
The following tables show the where the winner of each race run last week was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
| Mon 25.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| BEAUMONT | s7s5 | 3 3 2 - | - - 3 - | 3 3 3. 3 | - - - - | - - - - | 1 - 1 3. | - - - 3. | | | | 1 0 1 0 |
| GRAFTON | s5 | 1 1 - - | 3 3 3. 2 | 2 2 1 - | 1 1 1. - | - - - 2. | 1 1 - - | 1 1 2 2 | | | | 4 4 2. 0 |
| WARRNAMBOOL | s5g4 | - 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 - | | - - - 2 | | 1 1 3 - | 3 1 - 3. | - 1 - - | 3 3 3 - | | 1 3 0 0 |
| Tue 26.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| GEELONG | g4 | 3 3 3 3 | 1 1 1 2 | 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 1 1 | 2 1 1 1 | - - - 1. | 3 - 1. 3. | - - - - | | | 3 4 5. 4. |
| ROCKHAMPTON | s7h8 | 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 3 1 | 1 1 3 - | 3 2 3. - | 3 1 2 3 | 1 2 3. 1 | - - - 1. | | | | 4 4 1 4. |
| TAREE | h8 | 3 2 - - | 2 2 1 - | 2 2 2. - | 1 1 1 - | 3 2 1 - | 2 - 1 2. | 2 1 - - | - - 3. 3 | | | 1 2 4 0 |
| Wed 27.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| GERALDTON | g3 | 1 1 1 2. | - 3 3. - | 2 - 1 2 | 1 1 1 1 | 1 2 1. - | 1 1 1. 2. | 3 3 2 - | | | | 4 3 5. 1 |
| PIONEER PARK | g | 3 3 1 1 | 2 1 - - | 2 2 1 - | - - - - | 3 3 2 1 | 2 3 1 1 | - - - - | | | | 0 1 3 3 |
| RANDWICK INS | g4 | 3 3 3 3 | - - - 1 | - - - - | 3 - - - | 2 1 3 - | 2 1 - - | - - 3. - | 2 2 1 - | | | 0 2 1 1 |
| SANDOWN-LAKESIDE | g4 | - 3. 3. 3. | 1 2. - - | 2 1 3 - | 1 1 1 - | - 3 3. 2 | - - 3 - | 1 1 1 2. | 1 2 - - | | | 4 3 2 0 |
| STRATHALBYN | g4 | 3 - 3 - | - - - - | 1 1 2 1 | - - 3 1 | - - - - | 1 1 1. - | 1 1 1 - | | | | 3 3 2. 2 |
| Thu 28.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | R9 | R10 | meeting |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | | | w m h e |
| HAWKESBURY | g4 | - - 3 - | - - - 3. | - - 3. 2 | - - - - | - - - - | 2 2 1 3. | 1 1 3 - | 1 1 - - | | | 2 2 1 0 |
| PAKENHAM | g4 | 1 1 1 3. | 2 2 2 2. | 2 1 2. 2 | 2 2 3. 2. | 1 - 2 - | 2 1 2 - | - - 3 2. | | | | 2 3 1 0 |
| TOOWOOMBA | h8s6 | 2 1 2. - | - 3 - - | 2 - 1 3 | 1 3 - - | 1 1 2 3. | - 3 - 2 | 1 3 1 - | | | | 3 2 2 0 |
| WAGGA | g4 | - 3 - 2. | 2 1 1. 3. | 1 3 - 1 | 1 1 - 3 | 1 2 2 - | 2 1 - 1 | - - 3 - | | | | 3 3 1. 2 |
| Fri 29.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| ASCOT | g4 | - - - 1 | 3 - 2 - | - - - - | - - - - | 2 1 2. - | - - - 1 | - - - - | 2 1 3. - | | | 0 2 0 2 |
| CANBERRA | g4 | 1 1 2 1 | 2 1. 1. 3 | 1 2 - 3. | 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 2 2 | 1 1 1 2 | - - - - | - - - - | - - - 1 | | 5 5. 3. 3 |
| CRANBOURNE | g4g3 | 1 1 1 1 | - - - - | 1 3 - 3 | - 3 3. - | 2 1 2 2 | - - - 2 | 3 - 1 1 | 3 - - - | | | 2 2 2 2 |
| KALGOORLIE | g4 | 1 1 3 2. | 3 2 1 2 | 2 3 1 1 | - - - - | 3 2 1 1 | 3 2 2 3 | 2 2 1. 3 | | | | 1 1 4. 2 |
| LAUNCESTON | s5g4 | 3 3. 1. 3 | - 2 2 - | 2 3 1 1 | - - - 3 | - - 3. - | 1 2 - 1. | 2 - 1 - | - - 3 1 | | | 1 0 3. 3. |
| YARRA VALLEY | g4g3 | - 2 - - | 1 3 - - | 1 1 1. 1 | - 2 1. 1 | 1 3 - - | 1 1 3 - | - - 2 - | 1 1 - - | | | 5 3 2. 2 |
| Sat 30.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| ASCOT | g4 | 2 1 3 2 | - - - - | 1 2. 1. - | - - - 1 | 1 1 - - | 2 3 - - | 2 2. - - | 1 1 1 1 | 3 - 1. - | | 3 3 3. 2 |
| BEAUDESERT | h10 | - - - - | - - - 2 | - 2 - 1 | 1 1 1 1. | 2 1 - 3 | - - - - | | | | | 1 2 1 2. |
| CLARE | g4 | 3 3 - - | 1 1 1 1. | 1 3 1 2 | 3 - - - | 1 1 1. - | - - - - | 1 1 2. - | | | | 4 3 3. 1. |
| FLEMINGTON | g4g3 | - - 3 - | 1 3. 3. - | 1 3 3. 3. | 2 3 1 1 | 2 1 3. - | - 3 - - | 1 1 - - | - - - - | - - - - | 2 - - 3. | 3 2 1 1 |
| GATTON | s7 | 1 1 2 1 | 3 2 2. 1 | 1 2 1 2. | 2 1 - - | 1 1 2 - | - - 2 - | 3 2 - 3 | | | | 3 3 1 2 |
| KERANG | g4g3 | 2 3 - 2. | - - 2 - | - - - - | 3 - 1. - | - 2. - - | 1 1 - - | - - - 1 | - 2 - - | | | 1 1 1. 1 |
| MORUYA | s5g4 | 3 - 3 - | - - - 1 | 1 1 - - | - 2 - - | 1 - - - | 1 1 3 - | | | | | 3 2 0 1 |
| OAKBANK | s5 | 1 1 1 - | 2 1 2. 2 | 1 3 1 2. | 2 3 1 3. | - 2 - - | 2 - 1. - | - - - - | - 3 - - | - 2. - - | | 2 2 4. 0 |
| PIONEER PARK | g | 3 3 - - | - - 2. - | 3 3 3 3 | 1 1 2 - | 2 2 - 2 | 2 - 1 - | - - - - | - 3. - - | | | 1 1 1 0 |
| ROSEHILL | s5g4 | - - 2 1 | 1 1 2. 3 | 1 - - - | 1 1 1 - | - 3 3. 3 | - - - - | 1 1 1 2 | - - - - | 1 1 - - | 2 1 - 2 | 5 5 2 1 |
| WARRACKNABEAL | g4g3 | 2 2 3 - | 1 1 2 1 | - - - - | - - - - | 1 2 2. 2. | - - 3 2. | 2 2 1 1. | - - - - | | | 2 1 1 2. |
| WYONG | g4 | 1 - - - | 1 1 2 - | 2 2 1. 3 | 3 - 1 1 | - - - - | 2 3. 1. 1 | 3 - 2. 2. | 1 1 - - | | | 3 2 3. 2 |
| Sun 31.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| ALBANY | g4 | 3 - 2 - | - 2. - 2 | 2 - 1 2 | - 3 - - | - 3. - 2 | 3 - 1 2. | 3 3 - - | - - - - | | | 0 0 2 0 |
| MORNINGTON | g4 | 2 2 2 1 | 2 2 3. 2. | 1 1 1 2 | - - - 2. | 2 1 - - | 3 3 - 1. | - - - - | | | | 1 2 1 2. |
| MUDGEE | g4 | 2 2 2 2 | 1 1 2. - | 1 2 1 2 | 3 3 1 2. | - - - - | - 2 - 2 | 1 1 - - | | | | 3 2 2 0 |
| NOWRA | s6 | 3 2 - 2 | 1 1 3. - | - - - - | 3 3 3 - | 2 - - - | 1 - - - | | | | | 2 1 0 0 |
| PENOLA | g4 | - - 3. 1 | - - - 3 | - 3 - - | 3 - - - | - - - - | - - - - | 3 2 - - | 1 1 2 - | | | 1 1 0 1 |
| STAWELL | g4g3 | 3 3 2 3. | 1 1 1 1 | - - - - | - 3 1 - | - - - - | 3 3 - - | 3 3 - - | 2 - - - | | | 1 1 2 1 |
| SUNSHINE COAST POLY | aw | 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 - - | 2 - 1 2 | 3 2 2 - | - 3 2 3. | 3 2 3 1 | 1 2 3 - | 1 1 - 1 | | | 4 3 2 3 |
Header w m h e = Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk
Overall, the result last week for Wrat was 30.0% (92 winners from 306 races.)
From Monday to Sunday the daily results were: (28.5%, 35.0%, 30.0%, 34.5%, 29.0%, 32.5%, 23.0%).
A few of the more notable double-figure top-rated (100 pointer) winners last week were:
| Course | Date | Horse | SP Win | |
| OAKBANK | 30/03/2024 | Apache Gunship | $14.00 | Wrat & Whcp |
| ASCOT | 30/03/2024 | Exceltrain | $26.00 | Whcp |
| GRAFTON | 25/03/2024 | Ardonaugh | $13.00 | Whcp |
| CANBERRA | 29/03/2024 | Starliv | $27.00 | Wexpk |
| PENOLA | 31/03/2024 | Don't Matta Me | $13.00 | Wexpk |
The day by day tables show the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk in that order. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
For example, a cell entry of 1 2. 3 would read as:
.. 1 .. rated 1st (100 pointer) on Wrat
.. - .. not rated in the top three on Wmod
.. 2. .. rated equal 2nd on Whcp (the full stop after the numeric indicates it was rated equal 2nd)
.. 3 .. rated 3rd on Wexpk
As well as the results for individual races there a summary for each meeting which shows the number of winners for each of the Wizard and Wizard Plus ratings. An entry showing '4 3 0 2.' would be read as follows:
.. 4 .. 4 of the winners were rated 1st on Wrat
.. 3 .. 3 of the winners were rated 1st on Wmod
.. 0 .. no winner was rated 1st on Whcp
.. 2. .. 2 winners were rated 1st on Wexpk but at least one of these was an equal top-rater
With respect to equal-rated runners: This does not happen with Wrat as we have an algorithm that separates runners by adjusting the base ratings by career-record and form-related factors. The same procedure is applied with the Wmod, but not as extensively, and occasionally equal-rated horses could appear, but infrequently.
Where equal-rated runners are more common is in the ratings analysis that is basically pure weight handicapping, the Whcp and Wexpk analyses.
Trainers and Jockey Report - Record with 100 pointer, fav, $2.00-$5.90 - Bjorn Baker
This series of articles examines trainer-jockey combinations under three conditions:
- When the horse is the Wrat 100 pointer and started at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
- When the horse runs as the race favourite at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
- When the horse starts at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
Today's trainer is Bjorn Baker.
The overall stats for Bjorn Baker in this $2.00 to $5.90 odds range:
- When the Wizard Rating (Wrat) is 100 = 28.8%
- When the Starting Price Favourite = 31.6%
- All runners in the odds range = 22.4%
The statistics cover the stable's runners throughout Australia.
The time covered is 1 August 2022 to 30 March 2024, so last season and the current season. (Older results for trainer-jockey combinations not really relevant.)
| 1.8.22 to 31.3.24 | | 100 | | | | | fav | | | | | 2-5.9 | | | |
| Bjorn Baker with | win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp | win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp | Win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp |
| Adam Hyeronimus | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | - | - | | 28.5% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Andrew Calder (A J) | 20.0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 20.0% | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 18.0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| Alysha Collett | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 16.5% | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Amy McLucas | 33.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Angus Villiers | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33.0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Anna Roper | 0.0% | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 33.0% | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25.0% | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Ashley Morgan | 12.5% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 19.0% | 5 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| Brandon Lerena | 50.0% | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 43.0% | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 21.0% | 4 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
| Brad Rawiller | 20.0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 33.0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22.0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Dylan Gibbons | 40.0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 36.0% | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 29.0% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| Joshua Parr | 14.5% | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 22.0% | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 21.5% | 6 | 6 | 7 | 9 |
| Jason Collett | 40.0% | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.0% | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 35.5% | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| James McDonald | 33.0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20.0% | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9.0% | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| James Orman | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 66.0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 33.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jett Stanley | 50.0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23.0% | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Kayla Nisbet | 100.0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40.0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Louise Day | 25.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Mitchell Bell | 15.5% | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 25.0% | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 18.5% | 5 | 4 | 6 | 12 |
| Mathew Cahill | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | 33.0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Robbie Downey | 18.0% | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 30.0% | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14.5% | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 |
| Rachel King | 33.0% | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 36.0% | 9 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 22.5% | 13 | 9 | 8 | 28 |
| Tommy Berry | - | - | - | - | - | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 60.0% | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyler Schiller | - | - | - | - | - | 50.0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 33.0% | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Winona Costin | 33.0% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 33.0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 33.0% | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| Zac Lloyd | 33.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 28.5% | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com