Wizard Daily Report and Research - Friday, 5 April 2024.

• Trainer Profile - Annabel Neasham
• Wizard Ratings Results for Thursday, April 4

Trainer Profile of Annabel Neasham

It is fair to say that Annabel Neasham has attracted more than her fair share of attention since she took out her training licence in 2020 and for all the good reasons.

Annabel was born and grew up in the UK, and moved to Australia for a working holiday in 2016. Initially she planned to stay for 12 months and then go to the USA for another 12 months before heading back to the UK with the intention of seeking a career in the horse industry. But fate intervened.

First, Annabel secured a position with the Gai Waterhouse stable, and then six months later, relocated to Melbourne to join the Ciaron Maher David Eustace stable. Initially on the more administrative side of the operations her ability with the horses was recognized and she soon began to play an active part in the training side of the operations. So successful and dedicated was she in the new role that she was given the responsibility of establishing and managing the satellite Sydney stable set up by the Maher/Eustace partnership.

Success followed quickly in Sydney. Annabel did so well in building the Sydney operation from a mere 5 boxes to a top 20 position in the Sydney Metropolitan Premiership that Ciaron and David offered to bring her into the Maher/Eustace training partnership. Again, fate intervened. Backing for Annabel to take out her own licence had emerged, and so Annabel started her rise-and-rise in her own name in 2020.

Not only has Annabel outperformed on the racetrack with 9 Group 1 wins in the last five years, and 19 Group and Listed wins in the last 12 months alone, including the G1 win by Lady Laguna in the Canterbury Stakes on March 9, she has greatly expanded her training footprint.

As well retaining her original 36 boxes at Warwick Farm, Annabel has taken up another 20 at Rosehill, a further 20 at Pakenham in Victoria, and now she has relocated her Queensland base to Eagle Farm into another 30 boxes.

Annabel is enjoying success in all geographical areas, but it might just be having an impact on her relative position in the NSW trainers' ranks. It is understandable that there will be some movement, and perhaps levelling of ability, between stables.

Looking at her position in the NSW metropolitan and provincial tables since her initial 20-21 season we see her ranking were and are:

Season             Metro   Prov

20-21                 21        30

21-22                 14         8

22-23                   6        13

23-24*               11        31

The 2023-2024* season still has a few months to go so her position could improve, but the movement is worth noting.

One feature of her rise to prominence is the number of imported gallopers that are finding their way into her stables. In years past, it was Chris Waller, Darren Weir, Ciaron Maher, and Gai Waterhouse that dominated in this area. Now, Annabel is right up with them in this area as well, and the results achieved by her imports shows that her client's faith in her ability to get the imports to acclimatise and perform has not been misplaced.

But it is not only at the top level that Annabel's horses perform. Her stable will travel to wherever the horse is likely to be successful and is a frequent, and successful, participant on provincial and country tracks.

Given her obvious ability and the backing of substantial clients, including Coolmore, Annabel Neasham is set to be a major force in Australian thoroughbred racing for years to come.

Annabel Neasham Watch and Wait

With some trainers there are indicators that are especially worth noting. It is a matter of watching and waiting for the right conditions occur. It might be that the trainer out-performs with runners having their first start after a spell, or in sprint races rather than over longer distances, or backing up for a repeat win in a given time period. When these 'key metrics' are in play it is worthwhile paying particular attention to the runner.

Some key metrics for Annabel Neasham follow. When positive, the results listed were profitable on flat stakes and show the win percentage and the impact value for two odds ranges.

Finish position last start all ages total (negative)

There is a negative figure in the $2.00-$5.90 odds range that is worth noting.

Won last start: 14.4% 0.9iv with 25 winners from 174 last start winners.

For 2yo only racing (positive)

Days since last run: 8-14 days: 24.5% 1.4iv (odds range to $9.90)

Days since last win: 8-14 days: 27.3% 1.5iv (odds range to $9.90)

Days since last win: 15-21 days: 25.0% 1.4iv (odds range to $9.90)

For 4yo+ only racing (positive)

Distance: 1900m 2199m: 32.1% 1.6iv (odds range to $9.90)

For races run over 2000m or more (positive)

Days since last run: 15-21 days: 31.8% 1.2iv (odds range to $9.90)

Runs from a spell: 2nd up: 33.3% 1.2iv (odds range to $9.90)

Runs from a spell: 3rd up: 36.0% 1.3iv (odds range to $9.90)

Distance change: up 301-500m: 35.3% 1.3iv (odds range to $9.90)

The 33%+ results above are significant given they were delivered by horses in an extended odds range.

Stats Summary ($2.00-$5.90)

The overall stats for Annabel Neasham in the $2.00 to $5.90 odds range for the last and current seasons:

• When the Wizard Rating (Wrat) is 100 = 23.5%
• When the Starting Price Favourite = 29.9%
• All runners in the $2.00-$5.90 odds range = 20.8%

Annabel Neasham Jockey combinations

The table examines the trainer-jockey combinations under three conditions:

• When the horse is the Wrat 100 pointer and started at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
• When the horse runs as the race favourite at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
• When the horse starts at odds between $2.00 and $5.90

The results cover the stable's runners throughout Australia. 

The period covered is from 1 August 2022, so last season and the current season. (Older results for trainer-jockey combinations not really relevant.)

Wizard Ratings Report Thursday, April 4

The following table shows the where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.

The table shows the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat (w), Wmod (m), Whcp (h), and Wexpk (e) in that order. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.

For example, a cell entry of 1 2. 3 would read as:

.. 1 .. rated 1st (100 pointer) on Wrat

.. - .. not rated in the top three on Wmod

.. 2. .. rated equal 2nd on Whcp (the full stop after the numeric indicates it was rated equal 2nd)

.. 3 .. rated 3rd on Wexpk

As well as the results for individual races there a summary for each meeting which shows the number of winners for each of the Wizard and Wizard Plus ratings. An entry showing '4 3 0 2.' would be read as follows:

.. 4 .. 4 of the winners were rated 1st on Wrat

.. 3 .. 3 of the winners were rated 1st on Wmod

.. 0 .. no winner was rated 1st on Whcp

.. 2. .. 2 winners were rated 1st on Wexpk but at least one of these was an equal top-rater

With respect to equal-rated runners: This does not happen with Wrat as we have an algorithm that separates runners by adjusting the base ratings by career-record and form-related factors. The same procedure is applied with the Wmod, but not as extensively, and occasionally equal-rated horses could appear, but infrequently.

Where equal-rated runners are more common is in the ratings analysis that is basically pure weight handicapping, the Whcp and Wexpk analyses.

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

The period covered is from 1 August 2022, so last season and the current season. (Older results for trainer-jockey combinations not really relevant.)