Wizard Daily Report and Research - Monday, 15 April 2024.

• Trainer Profile - Richard and Chantelle Jolly
• Wizard Ratings Results for week ending April 14

Trainer Profile - Richard and Chantelle Jolly

Richard Jolly was born into a racing family. His father, Peter Jolly, owned a horse agistment property and trained thoroughbreds on a part-time basis. From a very early age, Richard's was a world of horses. Despite some parental misgivings Richard embarked on a career as a jockey as a young teenager. There followed a successful 14 years in the saddle with Group 1 glory and more than 800 wins.

Increasing weight caused Richard to transition from jockey to trainer, and in August 2000 he commenced his training career, first operating out of his father's stable and later purchasing his own stables, also at Morphettville. Richard's ability as a trainer was soon established with a steady flow of winners, and in the years that followed there was Group race success (the first G1 winner was Kushadasi in the 2014 South Australian Derby).

Richard's daughter Chantelle was destined to follow in Richard's footsteps. She had been a constant presence in the stable since she was five years old, and her love of horses and the racing industry saw her acquire a trainer's licence in 2015. 

In 2018, Chantelle joined Richard and so was established the Richard and Chantelle Jolly training partnership (hereafter referred to as R&C).

Success has followed the establishment of this R&C training partnership, with S.A. Trainer Metropolitan Premiership wins in 2021-2022 and 2022-2023, and it is leading again in the current season. The stable currently has 46 boxes on site and has an "overflow" capacity which allows for up to 60 horses to be in work at any one time.

The stable is successful on both metropolitan and provincial tracks and has enjoyed success in Group races, interstate as well as locally.

It is worth noting the success the stable has enjoyed in Melbourne since mid-2019.

Number of runners on Melbourne metropolitan tracks = 62

Number of winners on Melbourne metropolitan tracks = 15 (strike rate = 24%)

Number of Group Race winners on Melbourne metropolitan tracks = 9 (60% of winners were in Group races)

Number of runners/wins on Melbourne tracks: Flemington (34/6), Caulfield (14/4), Sandown (5/2), Moonee Valley (9/3).

The R&C stable is a force to be reckoned with both in South Australia and when it travels a horse interstate. Let the force be with you.

R&C - Watch and Wait

With some trainers there are indicators that are especially worth noting. It is a matter of watching and waiting for the right conditions occur. It might be that the trainer out-performs with runners having their first start after a spell, or in sprint races rather than over longer distances, or backing up for a repeat win in a given time period. When these 'key metrics' are in play it is worthwhile paying particular attention to the runner.

The following information is based on an analysis of results delivered by runners who started at odds less than $10.00. All "out-performing" results reported below were flat-stakes profitable over the past 5 years and show the win percentage and the impact value.

2YO horses

Distance: up to 1199m: 30.0%, 1.1iv

Distance change: +/- 100m: 35.7%, 1.1iv

General comment:

• The 2yo runners have done well when having their second run from first race start or a spell.

3yo horses

Having first race start: 28.8%, 1.2iv

Runs from a spell: 3rd up: 34.1%, 1.4iv

General comment: 

• The 3yo's have performed below par (19.1%, 0.8iv) when running as last start winners.

4YO and older horses

Days since last win: 8 to 28 days: 27.5%, 1.4iv

Previous winning margin: 0.1 to 3.0 lengths: 27.0%, 1.0iv

General comment:

• overall do best when backing up 8 to 28 since last run.
• Overall do best when coming off a last start win or 2nd, 3rd placing
• Overall do best when distance change is -100m to +300m

Richard and Chantelle Jolly - Jockey combinations

The table below examines the trainer-jockey combinations under three conditions:

• When the horse is the Wrat 100 pointer and started at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
• When the horse runs as the race favourite at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
• When the horse starts at odds between $2.00 and $5.90

The statistics cover the stable's runners throughout Australia. 

The period covered is from 1 August 2022, so last season and the current season. (Older results for trainer-jockey combinations not really relevant.)

Wizard Ratings Report week ending Sunday, April 14

Overall, the result last week for Wrat was 25.0% (84 winners from 337 races.) 

From Monday to Sunday the daily results were: (16.5%, 26.5%, 25.0%, 25.0%, 20.0%, 30.0%, 24.5%).

A few of the more notable double-figure top-rated (100 pointer) winners last week were:

The following tables show the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.

Header: w m h e =  Wrat (w), Wmod (m), Whcp (h), Wexpk (e)

For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results

Warren - Wiz-Ed

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Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com