Trainer's Notebook - NEW

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Saturday, 11 November 2023 - R&R posted during the afternoon.

  • This jockey - I wonder how .. ??? (continued)
  • Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. NEW

This jockey - I wonder how ??? (continued)

How often when analysing a race have you asked the question - I wonder how this jockey performs .. ???

Wizard Plus answers many questions you might have about a jockey, as well as about the trainer of the horse being ridden, and the horse itself, in the wide range of daily reports produced for each meeting covered metropolitan, provincial, and country.

From eight of the dedicated jockey/trainer reports available you can get information covering a multitude of factors, look at the data overall and, importantly, narrow it down to when the horse is in the market (when it has started at 10/1 or less) and has been expected to perform.

Again, looking at the Group 1 Champions Stakes at Flemington today and jockey Jamie Kah.

In the Jockey/Trainer stats for the previous 12 months with odds 10/1 or less Report we get the following details about Jamie Kah.

 startswin%place%
Riding favourite1222961
All rides2811949
Flemington502454
Metropolitan2321948
Distance +/-10%271541
Good track2252048
Wet track561354
On this horse250 

 

And from the Horse/Jockey/Trainer stats summary Report we get the following for Jamie.

 startswin%place%
Favourite - last year1222961
Favourite - previous year2143673
Favourite - two years back1793970
Favourite - Flemington223264
Favourite - Metropolitan992961
Favourite - distance113683
Favourite - good913262
Favourite - soft311958
Favourite - heavy000
Favourite - horse333100

 

It should also be noted that the same range of information about the trainer, and the jockey/trainer combination, is included in the report.

It only takes a minute or two to access these reports and your question has been answered. Query answered, time to continue with the horse assessment.

 

Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. NEW

Over the last three days I have been providing a statistical analysis of the top twenty trainers on Sydney metropolitan tracks. Various form factors have been covered, with win percentages and impact values published.

Rather than continue to provide this raw data I have decided to produce a notebook style report on the trainers of interest.

The same type of form factors have been analysed for each trainer, with a couple of extra added.

However, for this notebook presentation I have broken the overall stats down into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform.

Also I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise, and only included results where I had at least 50 observations.

The results shown are only those where the trainer had an impact value of 1.3 or better, so a significant performance, and one can say under these conditions the stable has outperformed its expected result.

Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.

 

                                                       Wizard  - Trainer's Notebook - Sydney metropolitan - top 10 trainers

 2yo3yo4yo and older
Chris Wallerdays since last run 30-179finish last start: 1stdays since last run 1-7
 runs from a spell: 1st upprevious win margin 3.1L plusdays since last win 8-21
 Field Strength +3.0 and higherdist change: up 301-500mField Strength +5.0 and higher
 finish last start: 1st finish last start: 1st
   previous win margin 3.1-5.0
    
Gai Waterhouse, A Bottdays since last run 8-14days since last run 22-28days since last run 1-7
 days since last win 8-21runs from a spell: 4th upruns from a spell: 3rd up
 previous win margin 3.1L plusweight change: up 3-4.5Kgdays since last win 8-21
 dist change: up 101-300mField Strength -0.5 to +0.5Field Strength +5.0 and higher
  previous win margin 3.1-5.0finish last start: 1st
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rdprevious win margin 3.1-5.0
   dist change: up 301-500m
    
James Cummingsdays since last win 30-60days since last run 180-365days since last run 180-365
 Field Strength -5.5 or moreprevious win margin 3.1-5.0days since last win 15-28
  dist change: up 301-500mfinish last start: 1st
   runs from a spell: 3rd up
    
C Maher, D Eustacedays since last run 15-21days since last run 180-365days since last win 8-28
 days since last win 15-21days since last win 8-21Field Strength -5.5 or more
 Field Strength -2.5 to -1dist change: up 301-500mfinish last start: 2nd or 3rd
 Field Strength +1 to +2.5 previous win margin 3.1L plus
 runs from a spell: 2nd up  
 runs from a spell: 4th up  
 dist change:  -100 to +100  
    
Bjorn Bakerdays since last run 15-21days since last run 1-7days since last win 8-21
 finish last start: 1stField Strength -5.5 or moreField Strength -3.0 or more
 finish last start: 2nd or 3rdweight change: +3.0 to -4.5kgfinish last start: 1st
 previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0dist change:  -300 to -101weight change: +3.0 or more
 runs from a spell: 3rd up  
 weight change: -3.0 to -0.5kg  
    
Annabel Neashamdays since last run 8-21days since last win 8-14days since last run 15-21
 finish last start: 1stdays since last win 180-365days since last win 15-21
 finish last start: 2nd or 3rdField Strength -5.0 to -1.0days since last win 30-60
 runs from a spell: 3rd upruns from a spell: 1st upfinish last start: 2nd or 3rd
 weight change: 0.0 to +2.5kg runs from a spell: 4th up
 dist change:  -100 to +100 dist change:  +301 to +500
    
Joseph Prideinsufficient datadays since last win 8-14days since last run 61-365
  Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5days since last win 8-21
  Field Strength +3.0 to +5.0days since last win 30-60
  finish last start: 1struns from a spell: 1st up
  runs from a spell: 4th upweight change: +5.0 or more
    
M, W, J HawkesField Strength +1.0 to +2.5days since last win 15-21days since last run 1-7
 runs from a spell: 1st upfinish last start: 2nd or 3rddays since last run 30-60
 finish last start: 2nd or 3rddist change:  -300 to -101days since last run 180-365
   days since last win 8-21
   finish last start: 1st
   runs from a spell: 1st up
    
G Ryan, S Alexiouinsufficient datadays since last run 15-28days since last win 8-14
  days since last win 15-21days since last win 15-21
  Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5Field Strength +1 to +2.5
  runs from a spell: 2nd upfinish last start: 1st
  runs from a spell: 4th up 
    
John O'Sheadays since last run 15-21days since last run 30-60days since last run 8-14
 Field Strength -2.5 to -1.0days since last run 180-365days since last win 8-21
  days since last win 8-28Field Strength +3.0 to +5.0
  previous win margin 3.1-5.0finish last start: 1st
  dist change:  -300 to -101dist change:  +301 to +500


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