Wizard Daily Report and Research - Sunday, 12 November 2023.

• This jockey - I wonder how ??? Country racing.
• Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. NEW

This jockey - I wonder how ??? (continued)

Yesterday we looked at a Group 1 race and asked the question - I wonder how this jockey performs ???

Today, we look at a country meeting in New South Wales and pose the same questions about a jockey, a trainer, and when they partner with a horse.

The meeting is at Warren, the jockey Clayton Gallagher, the trainer Brett Robb, and they are combining with Simply Xtravagant. The race is the Cotton Cup, an open handicap being run over 1600m.

In a wide range of daily reports produced for each meeting metropolitan, provincial, and country - Wizard Plus answers many questions.

There are eight jockey/trainer reports available, covering a multitude of factors: looking at the data overall and, importantly, narrowing it down to when the horse is in the market (when it has started at 10/1 or less) and has been expected to perform.

For example, in the Jockey/Trainer stats for the previous 12 months with odds 10/1 or less report we get the following details about Clayton Gallagher, Brett Robb, and when they combine with a horse. 

             Columns:

            Fav = starting price favourite

           All = all rides/runners

           Region = here country tracks

           Track = the racecourse, here Warren NSW

           Dist +/- = distance of the race +/- 10%

          Good = good track conditions

          Wet = wet track conditions (soft and heavy)

          Horse = the runner in this race

There is much that can be gleaned from these figures.

For example, the stable improves its strike rates with favourites to 37% when Gallagher is riding. Similar improvement can be seen in most other categories.

And there is more.

If you want to see how this jockey/trainer/combo has performed in the context of the betting market there is a report for that as well.

From the Wizard Plus Jockey/Trainer market stats for previous 12 months when 10/1 or less report we get:

                       Columns:

                      Op fav = opening favourite at start of betting (35 minutes before race start)

                      Sp fav = starting price favourite

                      Firmer = firms from opening to starting price

                      Ease = eased from opening to starting price

From the above you can quickly see the importance of market action. Confirming favourite status improves the strike rate from 32% to 37% for the combination. If the horse firms from its opening quote by the close of betting it is twice as likely to win compared to when it eases (this stat refers to all relevant runners up to 10/1).

It only takes a minute or two to access these reports and your question has been answered. Query answered, time to continue with the horse assessment.

Research Trainers Trainers Notebook. NEW

Today the Wizard Trainers Notebook continues with the top 20 trainers on NSW metropolitan tracks in the 2022-2023 racing season. This report covers trainers ranked 12 to 20, with Matthew Dunn included to make up the final 10.

For this notebook presentation I have broken down the overall stats into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform. Also I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise.

The results shown are only those where the trainer had an impact value of 1.3 or better, so a significant performance, and one can say under these conditions the stable has outperformed its expected result.

Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.

                               Wizard - Trainer's Notebook -  Part 2 of NSW metropolitan rankings 2022-2023