Wizard Daily Report and Research - Monday, 13 November 2023.

• Location change - Not a level playing field.
• Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. NEW

Location change - Not a level playing field.

In our Wizard database we classify the racetracks in Australia on 5 levels:

Level 1 Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan tracks

Level 2 Metropolitan tracks in Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth

Level 3 NSW and Victorian provincial tracks Gosford, Hawkesbury, Ballarat, Mornington etc

Level 4 NSW and Victorian country track and other states provincials, and Tasmania main tracks

Level 5 Country tracks in states other than NSW and Victoria

Picnic meetings and some very out of the way tracks are in a separate category (essentially Level 6).

When this categorisation is taken into account it is possible to see the quality difference between classes run on the various tracks.

A simple example is all age maiden races.

On average, we find that a Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan maiden (Level 1) is one length stronger than the same class of race on a level 2 track. If we say that the Sydney and Melbourne all age maiden is zero, then the average difference looks like this.

Level 1 = zero

Level 2 = 1 length weaker

Level 3 = 1.5 lengths weaker

Level 4 = 3 lengths weaker

Level 5 = 5 lengths weaker

Given this, it would seem reasonable to conclude that stables should be able to improve their maidens prospects if they drop them a level or two. Say, try a city standard maiden at a provincial track. Also, it would seem reasonable to believe that moving a level 3 maiden to a level 2 track could mean a tougher test for the horse, which should be reflected in the results. And this would not only apply to maidens, of course, but to all classes.

A quick look at the top ten stables in Sydney would seem to confirm this hypothesis.

Again using impact values to show relative performance.

          Performance levels at different track locations

As can be seen, there is a definite pattern of results.

When a horse is relocated to a lower level track the impact value improves, and when a higher level track is chosen the impact value declines.

So, it does seem worth paying closer attention to these track location changes; but bear in mind that the horses dropping to a lower level track can be poor value, and under the odds bets are not what we are seeking.

Research Trainers - Trainers Notebook. NEW

Today, the Wizard Trainers Notebook examines the top 10 trainers on Victorian metropolitan tracks in the 2022-2023 racing season.

For this notebook presentation I have broken down the overall stats into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform. Also I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise.

The results shown are only those where the trainer had an impact value of 1.3 or better, so a significant performance, and one can say under these conditions the stable has outperformed its expected result.

Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.

Because the data is drawn from the Wizards national database, the form factors will be the same for trainers when they appear in the top trainer list in more than one state.

                                                                       Wizard - Trainer's Notebook - Top 10 trainers on Victorian metropolitan tracks