Wizard Daily Report and Research - Friday, 17 November 2023.

• Better betting - Specialise - Group racing.
• Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook.

Better betting - Specialise - a practical approach.

Yesterday, I commenced a series of articles I plan to write dealing with the issue of the amount of horse racing on offer, and how we might find a way to focus on certain special circumstances where we can exploit a general lack of information.

In these first articles I will be providing you with some basic information that I hope will help you find the areas of form analysis on which you might wish to concentrate.

First cab off the rank was a breakdown of the types/classes of races run on Sydney metropolitan tracks. Today, the Melbourne breakdown.

                           Race classes and types Melbourne Metropolitan 2022-2023 racing season

Melbourne runs 112 all age Group races which can be added to the 86 in Sydney, making a total of 198 Group opportunities, with more to be added when I cover the other states in coming days.

A focus on Group racing is just one area of specialisation that you can exploit. Others are: geographical (local and preferred/limited interstate), level (metropolitan, provincial, country), trainers (but not individual jockeys), trainer/jockey combinations, types and classes of races, various form factors (specialising on horses with proven form cycles, distance specialists, speed mappers, etc), market movers (matching with form/ratings), switchers (distance, class, location). The list of possibilities is extensive. (And you can specialise in more than one area, of course.)

To assist you in specialisation Wizard Plus already provides relevant information.

For example, with respect to Group racing Wizard Plus, under its Stats and Facts menu option has the following: (Note only an extract is shown here as the tables are extensive.)

Group Stats

Jockey Group Stats (Last 12 Months)

Jockey Trainer/Runner/Metro/Group 1 for Last 15 Years Stats

Trainer Group Stats (Last 12 Months)

Trainer Jockey/Metro/Group 1 for Last 15 Years Stats

Sire Stats - Track Conditions / Trainer / Group

Sire Stats - Group by Age

As you can see there is a wealth of relevant information in these Wizard Plus reports. In addition to these reports, early in the new year we plan to make available Wizard Plus reports that identify horses that are favoured under many areas of Specialisation on a meeting by meeting basis, covering metropolitan, provincial, and country racing, seven days a week.

Wiz-Ed

Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook.

Today the Wizard Trainers Notebook examines the top 10 trainers on South Australian metropolitan tracks in the 2022-2023 racing season.

For this notebook presentation I have broken down the overall stats into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform. Also, I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise.

The results shown are only those where the trainer had an impact value of 1.3 or better, so a significant performance, and one can say under these conditions the stable has outperformed its expected result.

Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.

Because the data is drawn from the Wizards national database, the form factors will be the same for trainers when they appear in the top trainer list in more than one state.

Wiz-Ed

                        Wizard - Trainer's Notebook -  The top ten trainers in the South Australian 2022-2023 metropolitan premiership table