Wizard Daily Report and Research - Saturday, 18 November 2023.

• Better betting - Specialise - Group racing, deeper dive.
• Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook.

Better betting - Specialise - Group racing, dive deeper.

In this  series of articles I am dealing with the issue of the amount of horse racing on offer, and how we might find a way to focus on certain special circumstances where we can exploit a general lack of information.

In the first of these articles I will be providing you with some basic information that I hope will help you find the areas of form analysis on which you might wish to concentrate.

Today, details of the class/type of races run on the Brisbane metropolitan tracks.

                              Race classes and types Brisbane Metropolitan 2022-2023 racing season

Brisbane runs 40 all age Group races which can be added to the 86 in Sydney and the 112 in Melbourne, making a total of 238 Group opportunities, with more to be added when I cover other states in coming days.

A focus on Group racing is just one area of specialisation that you can exploit. Others are: geographical (local and preferred/limited interstate), level (metropolitan, provincial, country), trainers (but not individual jockeys), trainer/jockey combinations, types and classes of races, various form factors (specialising on horses with proven form cycles, distance specialists, speed mappers, etc), market movers (matching with form/ratings), switchers (distance, class, location). The list of possibilities is extensive. (And you can specialise in more than one area, of course.)

To assist you in specialisation, Wizard Plus already provides relevant information.

Yesterday, I provided some examples from Wizard Plus, under its Stats and Facts menu option. (Note only an extract is shown as the tables and race details are extensive.)

Today, I will show you how you can drill deeper into the details of these key statistics. 

First, the Group stats for the runners in the race.

Group Stats

On the above Wizard Plus stats summary there is an i-button next to the number of starts for each horse. Click on the i-button and a snapshot of the relevant form details are provided.

 Below we can see the details of the three Group 1 races contested by Skew Wiff.

Group 1 Form for Skew Wiff.

Group 1 Stats : 1 Wins, 2 Places, 3 Starts, 33.3 Winning %, 100.0 In the Money %, 3.0 Runs per Win, (Meeting Jockey : CRAIG WILLIAMS)
 

If you want to see the detailed record of a particular jockey in the race, first go to the Jockey Group Stats (Last 12 Months) option. 

Jockey Group Stats (Last 12 Months)

To get details for a particular jockey, click on the relevant i-button. Below are the (abridged) detailed Group 1 results for Damien Oliver.

Jockey Last 15 Group 1 Starts, then previous 5 wins for Damien Oliver.

Jockey Group1 Stats (last 12 Months) : 2 Wins, 5 Places, 28 Starts, 7.1 Winning %, 25.0 In the Money %, 14.0 Runs per Win, (Riding : VILANA)
 

The same investigation can be done for trainers. 

From the Wizard Plus Stats and Facts options for the race, choose the Trainer Group Stats (Last 12 Months) option. 

Trainer Group Stats (Last 12 Months)

Once you have this screen, simply click on the i-button against the number of starts relevant to your query; here the record of James Cummings in Group 1 races is provided.

Trainer Last 15 Group 1 starts, then previous 5 wins for James Cummings

Trainer Group1 Stats (last 12 Months) : 7 Wins, 10 Places, 45 Starts, 15.6 Winning %, 37.8 In the Money %, 6.4 Runs per Win, (Meeting Horse : VILANA)
 

As you can see there is a wealth of relevant information in these Wizard Plus reports. In addition to these reports, early in the new year we plan to make available Wizard Plus reports that identify horses that are favoured under many areas of Specialisation on a meeting by meeting basis, covering metropolitan, provincial, and country racing, seven days a week.

Wiz-Ed

Research Trainers Trainers Notebook.

Today the Wizard Trainers Notebook examines trainers ranked 11 to 20 on the South Australian metropolitan tracks in the 2022-2023 racing season.

For this notebook presentation I have broken down the overall stats into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform. Also, I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise.

The results shown are only those where the trainer had an impact value of 1.3 or better, so a significant performance, and one can say under these conditions the stable has outperformed its expected result.

Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.

Because the data is drawn from the Wizards national database, the form factors will be the same for trainers when they appear in the top trainer list in more than one state.

Wiz-Ed

Wizard - Trainer's Notebook - Trainers ranked 11 to 20 in the South Australian 2022-2023 metropolitan premiership table.