Wizard Daily Report and Research  - Friday, 1 December 2023.

• Wizard Watch Morning Movers - November report.

Wizard Watch Morning Movers

On Monday, November 6, I posted the results from the first week of Wizard Watch Morning Movers (MM), a feature of the Wizard Plus service.

Now that one month has passed, we can look at the first full month of operations.

First, a description of what Wizard Watch Morning Movers is all about.

Whilst the corporates are shaping their early markets, the Wizard monitors race morning price changes and betting volume trends over the first 3 hours of race day betting to determine which horses are anticipated to run above earlier pre-post expectations and which horses have had their higher probabilities confirmed. We have developed algorithms that identify those horses that are likely to run-to or exceed early expectations.

Given the significance of this early/informed market action, the odds about the Wizard Watch Morning Movers will naturally skew towards the shorter odds, but this should be compensated by the strike rate. Double figure odds about successful Market Movers are rare, but each-way odds winners are backable.

In the November 6 post, I observed that backing all Wizard Watch Morning Movers is not sensible, nor is it recommended. There can be too much market action and too many horses flagged as significant morning movers. Any sensible approach to wagering is knowing what to bet and when to bet.

When introducing Morning Movers it was apparent that some filters needed to be used. That is why the Wizard Watch MM report included the Wizard Plus ratings assessments and other form related information.

My view on November 6 was that the best options would be to concentrate on the Wizard Plus ratings (Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk) and the Wizard Filter. Specifically, three options were suggested: consider a MM if it is:

• a 100 pointer on all 4 Wizard ratings (Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk)
• a 100 pointer on the 3 ratings Wrat-Wmod-Whcp only (these concentrate the handicapping process on current form)
• the Wizard Filter when it is ranked Number 1 and rated 7 or higher.

The results for last month pretty much confirm that approach, with one exception.

Rated 4 columns - First, the 4 Wizard Plus ratings option seems well founded. This option includes multi-factor ratings (Wrat, Wmod), a pure weight ratings based rating with recency at its core (Whcp), and another pure weight based rating that brings into the analysis older peak form (Wexpk).

In November, this option reduced the total of 708 movers to 38 qualifiers:

• 22 wins, 8 seconds, 3 thirds, and 5 unplaced (57.9% win strike rate)
• a flat stakes profit of +18% on turnover

Rated 3 columns This option concentrated on current form. Its performance over the month was fair, with a good strike rate, and essentially a break even result, but could not match the 4 ratings option in terms of performance.

In November, this option reduced the total of 708 movers to 83 qualifiers:                                                                                                                                                                                                            

• 38 wins, 17 seconds, 11 thirds, and 17 unplaced (45.8% win strike rate)
• a flat stakes loss of -2.5% on turnover

Filter - This option makes use of the Wizard Filter rankings (from the Wizard Essentials Report). Focusing on those filter horses that have at least 7 points and are number 1 in the rankings for the race. This option was not successful last month.

In November, this option reduced the total of 708 movers to 76 qualifiers:                                                                                                                                                                                                            

• 28 wins, 17 seconds, 16 thirds, and 15 unplaced (36.8% win strike rate)
• a flat stakes loss of -18.4% on turnover

Reflecting on this it is apparent that using the Filter only is to rely exclusively on qualitative analysis; no ratings, no current or best form quantification (that is, no Wizard ratings assessment). So, even with the race morning betting action being used as an anchor, the lack of reliable quantitative assessment is a definite negative.

However, when combining the Filter option with the 3 ratings option (Wrat, Wmod, Whcp), a synergistic relationship emerges; so having an option that requires the two factors to be present to qualify as a possible bet seems worth pursuing.

Rated 3 columns (Wrat, Wmod, Whcp)  AND  Filter (minimum 7 points and ranked 1) in November reduced the total of 708 movers to 21 qualifiers:                                                                                                                                           

• 13 wins, 3 seconds, 1 thirds, and 4 unplaced (61.9% win strike rate)
• a flat stakes profit of +33.5% on turnover

The Wizard Watch Morning Movers approach described above is but one of the specialised betting options Wizard plans to make available to Wizard Plus users over the next three to four months. It takes time to do the programming etc for these enhancements and that is the reason for the staggered introduction.

In the meantime, we will be suggesting ways these Wizard Plus MM qualifiers can be used as anchors and banker bets by those who favour exotic bets over straight win wagering.

Finally, whilst reflecting on recent times, in November the Wizard rated 1436 races for a Wizard 100 pointer win strike rate 25.3%, a touch under the 26-27% longer term average. Among the shorter odds winners there were some good priced 100 pointer winners, with just yesterday delivering Song Story ($11.00, Betfair SP $14.60) and Another Balconyboy ($26.00, Betfair SP $54.00)

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com