Wizard Daily Report and Research  - Saturday, 2 December 2023.

• Wizard Ratings and Wizard Watch

Wizard Ratings and Wizard Watch

Yesterday, I reported on the results of Wizard Watch Morning Movers for its first month of operations.

Central to the use of this report on race morning betting action is the application of filters that help focus on the days better chances.

One of these filters involves the four Wizard Plus ratings assessments: Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk.

What follows is some background information about these Wizard ratings, then a repost of the Wizard Watch results.

The Wizard Ratings

After every meeting run in Australia and New Zealand each race is re-analysed and re-rated to calculate a rating for each horse which reflects the quality of its performance in that race.

The ratings for every horse in the Wizard database are run-specific ratings, not a free-handicap rating that is varied up or down depending on recent race performances. This allows for a more detailed picture of a horses ratings record over time, and importantly, under different race conditions.

The Wizard formguide includes these base run and weight for age adjusted ratings for each horse's last eight starts, its previous winning runs, and in its Peak Ratings.

Wizard Plus goes further, and in its Performance Graphs feature, the chart for each horse gives the full ratings history (base, and WFA adjusted) of each runner and, by charting these runs, clearly shows the form cycles of each horse.

It is these base run and WFA-adjusted base run ratings which are used to produce Wizards predictive ratings assessments Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk.

Wrat (Wizard Rating)

Wizard Wrat ratings are based on a handicapping assessment which focuses on relative weight advantage/disadvantage. The final relative weight assessment is then adjusted for the following factors: the quality of current form, barrier position, form cycle, recency, distance ability, consistency, jockey, and trainer.

In the Wizard, the top-rated runner in the race has a rating of 100, normally referred to as the 100-pointer. A runner having its first race start has no Wrat score.

In the 2022-23 race season The Wizard rated 17,199 races in Australia that were covered by Tabs and the corporate bookmakers,

In this 2022-23 season the Wrat 100 pointer (the top rated runner in the race) was successful in 26% of those races, at odds ranging from odds-on to longer than 20/1 (some 17% of those 100 pointers had a starting price between 6/1 and 20/1).

The two highest rated Wrat horses won 44% of those 17,199 races between them.

The long-term history of the Wrat shows that, on a seasonal 12 months basis, it can be expected to have an annual strike rate between 25% and 27%.

Wmod (Wizard Model Rating)

The Wizard Wmod assessment is based on a regression analysis of race results covering a 10-year period of racing In Australia and New Zealand.

The main factors feeding into this assessment were relative weight advantage, age, sex, consistency, earnings, current form, best form in past 12 months, distance ability, barrier position, form cycle, jockey, and trainer.

The top-rated runner in the race has a rating of 100. With Wmod there can be more than one 100-pointer in a race.

In the 2022-23 season the Wmod 100-pointer (the top-rated runner in the race) was successful in 24.7% of those races, at odds ranging from odds-on to longer than 20/1 (some 22% of those 100 pointers had a starting price between 6/1 and 20/1).

Whcp (Wizard Relative Weight Handicap Rating)

The Wizard Whcp assessment is an almost pure relative weight assessment with minimal input from other factors. The only adjustments to the base ratings analysis involve bonuses or penalties for form cycle (expected improvement, deterioration), consistency, barrier position, and jockey ability.

One thing to note about this Whcp assessment is that equal top rated runners can occur. That is, you can have more than one 100-pointer in a race. With this traditional relative weight handicapping analysis we do not employ a supplementary adjustment to ensure that there is only one 100 point (top rated) runner in a race as we do for Wrat.

Because there are sometimes equal top-rated runners in the Whcp category the overall strike rate for these 100 pointers is lower. In the 2022-23 season the win strike rate was 20%. The odds range of Whcp winners was larger, with the longest priced 100 pointer winner starting at 50/1.

Wexpk (Wizard Expected Peak Rating)

The Wexpk (expected peak) analysis assesses each horse on its best (weight for age adjusted) rating from its previous preparation as well as its current preparation. It is looking for the horse that can win if it runs to its proven best form over this particular period.

As with Whcp, the Wexpk assessment can return equal top-rated runners, that is, more than one 100-pointer in a race.

Also, as with Whcp, the Wexpk assessment is an almost pure relative weight assessment with minimal input from other factors. The only adjustments to the WFA adjusted base ratings analysis involve bonuses or penalties for consistency, barrier position, and jockey ability.

Given the nature of this assessment, and the possibility of finding top rated runners off older form, and therefore not currently in the public eye, it is no surprise to see the overall win strike rate lower than that of the other assessments which concentrate on current form.

In the 2022-23 season the win strike rate for Wexpk was 14.7%%. The odds range of Whcp winners was skewed to longer odds, with the longest priced 100 pointer winner paying $83.00.

Wizard Watch Morning Movers

On Monday, November 6, I posted the results from the first week of Wizard Watch Morning Movers (MM), a feature of the Wizard Plus service.

Now that one month has passed, we can look at the first full month of operations.

First, a description of what Wizard Watch Morning Movers is all about.

Whilst the corporates are shaping their early markets, the Wizard monitors race morning price changes and betting volume trends over the first 3 hours of race day betting to determine which horses are anticipated to run above earlier pre-post expectations and which horses have had their higher probabilities confirmed. We have developed algorithms that identify those horses that are likely to run-to or exceed early expectations.

Given the significance of this early/informed market action, the odds about the Wizard Watch Morning Movers will naturally skew towards the shorter odds, but this should be compensated by the strike rate. Double figure odds about successful Market Movers are rare, but each-way odds winners are backable.

In the November 6 post, I observed that backing all Wizard Watch Morning Movers is not sensible, nor is it recommended. There can be too much market action and too many horses flagged as significant morning movers. Any sensible approach to wagering is knowing what to bet and when to bet.

When introducing Morning Movers it was apparent that some filters needed to be used. That is why the Wizard Watch MM report included the Wizard Plus ratings assessments and other form related information.

My view on November 6 was that the best options would be to concentrate on the Wizard Plus ratings (Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk) and the Wizard Filter. Specifically, three options were suggested: consider a MM if it is:

• a 100 pointer on all 4 Wizard ratings (Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk)
• a 100 pointer on the 3 ratings Wrat-Wmod-Whcp only (these concentrate the handicapping process on current form)
• the Wizard Filter when it is ranked Number 1 and rated 7 or higher.

The results for last month pretty much confirm that approach, with one exception.

Rated 4 columns - First, the 4 Wizard Plus ratings option seems well founded. This option includes multi-factor ratings (Wrat, Wmod), a pure weight ratings based rating with recency at its core (Whcp), and another pure weight based rating that brings into the analysis older peak form (Wexpk).

In November, this option reduced the total of 708 movers to 38 qualifiers:

• 22 wins, 8 seconds, 3 thirds, and 5 unplaced (57.9% win strike rate)
• a flat stakes profit of +18% on turnover

Rated 3 columns This option concentrated on current form. Its performance over the month was fair, with a good strike rate, and essentially a break even result, but could not match the 4 ratings option in terms of performance.

In November, this option reduced the total of 708 movers to 83 qualifiers:                                                                                                                                                                                                            

• 38 wins, 17 seconds, 11 thirds, and 17 unplaced (45.8% win strike rate)
• a flat stakes loss of -2.5% on turnover

Filter - This option makes use of the Wizard Filter rankings (from the Wizard Essentials Report). Focusing on those filter horses that have at least 7 points and are number 1 in the rankings for the race. This option was not successful last month.

In November, this option reduced the total of 708 movers to 76 qualifiers:                                                                                                                                                                                                            

• 28 wins, 17 seconds, 16 thirds, and 15 unplaced (36.8% win strike rate)
• a flat stakes loss of -18.4% on turnover

Reflecting on this it is apparent that using the Filter only is to rely exclusively on qualitative analysis; no ratings, no current or best form quantification (that is, no Wizard ratings assessment). So, even with the race morning betting action being used as an anchor, the lack of reliable quantitative assessment is a definite negative.

However, when combining the Filter option with the 3 ratings option (Wrat, Wmod, Whcp), a synergistic relationship emerges; so having an option that requires the two factors to be present to qualify as a possible bet seems worth pursuing.

Rated 3 columns (Wrat, Wmod, Whcp)  AND  Filter (minimum 7 points and ranked 1) in November reduced the total of 708 movers to 21 qualifiers:                                                                                                                                           

• 13 wins, 3 seconds, 1 thirds, and 4 unplaced (61.9% win strike rate)
• a flat stakes profit of +33.5% on turnover

The Wizard Watch Morning Movers approach described above is but one of the specialised betting options Wizard plans to make available to Wizard Plus users over the next three to four months. It takes time to do the programming etc for these enhancements and that is the reason for the staggered introduction.

In the meantime, we will be suggesting ways these Wizard Plus MM qualifiers can be used as anchors and banker bets by those who favour exotic bets over straight win wagering.

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com