Wizard Daily Report and Research - Sunday, 3 December 2023.
- Selective Betting - Filters
Selective Betting - Filters
The most relevant definition of a filter, in the context of horse race betting, that I have found states: It is a tool for selecting or removing a particular type of information.
Well, that sums up pretty well what I see a useful filter doing in our endeavours: Helping in the selection of winners and removal of losers.
The Wizard has its own filter.
In the Wizard Plus Essentials report you will find the Wizard Filter. (It is also to be found in other Wizard Plus reports; for example, the Plus Panel, and the Wizard Plus Morning Movers report that I have been discussing over recent days.)
Wizard Filter
The Wizard examines and reports on key positives and negatives facing each runner in the race.
The ten major factors included in this Filter analysis are Wrat, age, form cycle (runs from a spell), consistency, form last 12 months, jockey, trainer, running style, distance, wet track form.
We apply minimum requirements to each of these factors, and when a runner meets or exceeds that standard it earns a positive score, when it fails to meet the standard it earns a negative score.
For example, if a horse met the benchmark standard for 12 factors but failed to meet the standard for 3 other factors, then it would get a Filter score of +9. If, on the other hand it scored negatively on 12 but did score positively on 3, then it would have a score of -9.
In total there are 15 factors that are examined, the 10 listed above, and five other factors judged as being of somewhat lesser importance for this analysis.
Not all horses can be evaluated under all 15 factors, as some factors are not present in the horses form history. It is unusual for a score of more than 11 positives (+11) to be assigned to any individual horse.
Experience has shown that score of +7 and above is meaningful. Any positive score is better than a negative score, but it is worth paying closer attention to those runners with a Filter score of +7 or more.
In the Wizard Essentials report the Filter score and ranking for each runner is shown. In the Wizard Plus Panel only the horses with a filter score of 7+ and ranked number 1 are highlighted. The Wizard Watch Morning Movers shows the filter value for all horses included in the report.
The application of this Wizard Plus filter to the rated runners identified as significant movers in the race morning betting action identified in the Wizard Watch Morning Movers report has been interesting.
Eliminating any runner rated on top on all three current ratings assessments (Wrat, Wmod, Whcp) that is NOT rated 7+ and Ranked 1 on the Filter, delivered the following comparison.
Unfiltered - 88 starts - 41 wins - 46.6% - loss of 1.6% on turnover
Filtered - 21 starts - 13 wins - 61.9% - profit of 33.5% on turnover
As we progress our discussion on specialisation we will continue to look for other opportunities to employ filters, with the aim of increasing the win rate, minimizing the impact of losing runs, and maximizing profit.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com