Wizard Daily Report and Research - Friday, 29 December 2023.
Betting Markets (part 10)
Betting Markets - Firmed, Steady, Eased - Meetings summary.
Today, summing up the analysis of betting market moves of the meetings covered on Saturday, December 16.
First, a reposting of the summary table posted a few days back of the aggregated data from the five days covered, showing the percentages appropriate to each situation.
Table - Aggregated market movements at 15m and 5m before race start - firming, steady, easing.
| at 15m from 30m | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Starters | Firmed | Firmed | Steady | Eased | Steady | Firmed | Steady | Eased | Eased | Firmed | Steady | Eased |
| | | at 15m | at sp | at sp | at sp | at 15m | at sp | at sp | at sp | at 15m | at sp | at sp | at sp |
| | | fr 30m | fr 15m | fr 15m | fr 15m | fr 30m | fr 15m | fr 15m | fr 15m | fr 30m | fr 15m | fr 15m | fr 15m |
| 16.12.23 | 1146 | 14% | 38% | 13% | 49% | 65% | 27% | 14% | 59% | 21% | 29% | 15% | 56% |
| 17.12.23 | 658 | 13% | 36% | 9% | 55% | 71% | 27% | 12% | 61% | 15% | 22% | 12% | 66% |
| 18.12.23 | 128 | 11% | 43% | 22% | 36% | 64% | 24% | 10% | 66% | 25% | 31% | 9% | 59% |
| 19.12.23 | 153 | 17% | 31% | 15% | 54% | 58% | 30% | 24% | 47% | 25% | 36% | 13% | 51% |
| 20.12.23 | 452 | 18% | 42% | 14% | 44% | 58% | 27% | 16% | 57% | 25% | 21% | 14% | 65% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Total | 2537 | 15% | 38% | 13% | 49% | 65% | 27% | 14% | 59% | 20% | 27% | 14% | 59% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| at 5m from 15m | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Starters | Firmed | Firmed | Steady | Eased | Steady | Firmed | Steady | Eased | Eased | Firmed | Steady | Eased |
| | | at 5m | at sp | at sp | at sp | at 5m | at sp | at sp | at sp | at 5m | at sp | at sp | at sp |
| | | fr 15m | fr 5m | fr 5m | fr 5m | fr 15m | fr 5m | fr 5m | fr 5m | fr 15m | fr 5m | fr 5m | fr 5m |
| 16.12.23 | 1146 | 23% | 39% | 17% | 44% | 33% | 28% | 21% | 51% | 43% | 24% | 17% | 59% |
| 17.12.23 | 658 | 20% | 44% | 20% | 36% | 37% | 27% | 18% | 55% | 43% | 19% | 13% | 68% |
| 18.12.23 | 128 | 22% | 43% | 7% | 50% | 33% | 26% | 19% | 55% | 45% | 17% | 10% | 72% |
| 19.12.23 | 153 | 24% | 39% | 17% | 44% | 35% | 34% | 38% | 28% | 42% | 25% | 9% | 66% |
| 20.12.23 | 452 | 24% | 44% | 16% | 40% | 29% | 24% | 31% | 45% | 47% | 20% | 22% | 58% |
| Total | 2537 | 22% | 41% | 17% | 42% | 34% | 27% | 23% | 50% | 44% | 22% | 16% | 62% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Total | 2085 | 22% | 41% | 17% | 42% | 35% | 28% | 21% | 51% | 43% | 22% | 15% | 63% |
Now, taking a closer look at the SP favourite, categorised by its final status - firmer, steady, easer - across the five days, December 16 to December 20.
Here it is important to note that this is very unlikely to be a representative sample of betting movements over the last 30 minutes of wagering.
Table - SP favourite - firmer, steady, easer - December 16 to December 20
| | 15m | 5m | SP | starters | win | 2nd | 3rd | unp |
| overall | fse | fse | firm | 73 | 27 37% | 15 21% | 4 5% | 27 37% |
| overall | fse | fse | steady | 14 | 7 50% | 4 29% | 1 7% | 2 14% |
| overall | fse | fse | ease | 40 | 13 33% | 8 20% | 6 15% | 13 33% |
fse = any of firm, steady, ease
Despite the short-term nature of this recent study, the data itself has proved interesting, and has encouraged me to research a longer period of betting fluctuations. Accordingly, I will commence a study of the full 2022-2023 racing season in the next article in this series.
(to be continued)
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com