Wizard Daily Report and Research - Saturday, 30 December 2023.
Betting Markets - SP favourite (part 11)
Betting Markets - Starting Price Favourite - Metro, Prov, Country.
The following analysis reports on the success rate of the Starting Price Favourite in two ways; irrespective of its support in the betting market, and when it has firmed in the latter stages of betting.
In terms of location, this analysis looks at this success rate:
- Overall all locations
- Metropolitan racing
- Provincial racing
- Country racing
In addition to the location sub-division of the data, it is further broken down into three age groups:
- 2yo gallopers
- 3yo gallopers
- 4yo+ gallopers
The fluctuation used here for comparison purposes is the mid-point odds reported by AAP/Mediality and the horse is categorised as a firmer if the SP is shorter than the mid-point price.
The period covered is the 2022-2023 racing season.
Table - Performance of all SP favourites and when firming.
| | | All Favourites | | | | | Firming Favourites | | | |
| All Ages | Horses | Win | win% | Av Div | | All Ages | Horses | Win | win% | Av Div |
| Overall | 16834 | 5965 | 35.4% | 2.55 | | Overall | 9592 | 3501 | 36.5% | 2.50 |
| Metropolitan | 3602 | 1204 | 33.4% | 2.70 | | Metropolitan | 1869 | 640 | 34.2% | 2.65 |
| Provincial | 6206 | 2203 | 35.5% | 2.50 | | Provincial | 3529 | 1294 | 36.7% | 2.40 |
| Country | 7026 | 2558 | 36.4% | 2.50 | | Country | 4194 | 1567 | 37.4% | 2.45 |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| 2yo | Horses | Win | win% | Av Div | | 2yo | Horses | Win | win% | Av Div |
| Overall | 712 | 277 | 38.9% | 2.20 | | Overall | 399 | 164 | 41.1% | 2.05 |
| Metropolitan | 258 | 97 | 37.6% | 2.40 | | Metropolitan | 128 | 49 | 38.3% | 2.30 |
| Provincial | 281 | 102 | 36.3% | 2.15 | | Provincial | 158 | 59 | 37.3% | 2.00 |
| Country | 173 | 78 | 45.1% | 2.00 | | Country | 113 | 56 | 49.6% | 1.90 |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| 3yo | Horses | Win | win% | Av Div | | 3yo | Horses | Win | win% | Av Div |
| Overall | 5322 | 2058 | 38.7% | 2.40 | | Overall | 2832 | 1143 | 40.4% | 2.30 |
| Metropolitan | 1156 | 404 | 34.9% | 2.55 | | Metropolitan | 562 | 212 | 37.7% | 2.45 |
| Provincial | 2359 | 914 | 38.7% | 2.40 | | Provincial | 1276 | 493 | 38.6% | 2.30 |
| Country | 1807 | 740 | 41.0% | 2.35 | | Country | 994 | 438 | 44.1% | 2.20 |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| 4yo+ | Horses | Win | win% | Av Div | | 4yo+ | Horses | Win | win% | Av Div |
| Overall | 11033 | 3679 | 33.3% | 2.70 | | Overall | 6399 | 2199 | 34.4% | 2.60 |
| Metropolitan | 2240 | 711 | 31.7% | 2.85 | | Metropolitan | 1187 | 380 | 32.0% | 2.80 |
| Provincial | 3685 | 1211 | 32.9% | 2.60 | | Provincial | 2117 | 744 | 35.1% | 2.55 |
| Country | 7348 | 2468 | 33.6% | 2.70 | | Country | 3095 | 1075 | 34.7% | 2.55 |
There are a number of take-aways from this analysis:
- The win strike rate is higher if a firmer, but usually this is a marginal improvement.
- Win strikes rates are higher in provincial and country racing.
- Win strike rates are higher for 2yo and 3yo gallopers, compared to those 4yo and older.
- No category shows a flat stake profit but some do manage a 0.90-0.95 return.
(to be continued)
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com