Wizard Daily Report and Research - Tuesday, 2 January 2024.
Distance Ranges - age and location
Distance Ranges - Starting Price Favourite performance.
This report looks at the performance of the Starting Price (SP) Favourite when racing over four distinct distance ranges.
For this report the ranges are:
800m 1399m sprint
1400m 1799m middle distance sprint
1800m 2399m middle distance staying
2400m 3200m long distance staying
The results cover the last five years, since 1 January 2019.
The analysis reports on the success rate of the Starting Price Favourite in terms of:
Location - this analysis looks at this success rate:
- Overall all locations
- Metropolitan racing
- Provincial racing
- Country racing
Age - the data is further broken down into three age groups:
- 2yo gallopers
- 3yo gallopers
- 4yo+ gallopers
Table 1 - Distance Ranges - Starting price favourite performance.
| | | 800m | | | 1400m | | | 1800m | | | 2400m | |
| | | 1399m | | | 1799m | | | 2399m | | | 3200m | |
| 2yo | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% |
| Overall | 3812 | 1484 | 38.9% | 371 | 130 | 35.0% | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| Metropolitan | 1323 | 487 | 36.8% | 178 | 55 | 30.9% | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| Provincial | 1477 | 555 | 37.6% | 161 | 65 | 40.4% | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| Country | 1012 | 442 | 43.7% | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 800m | | | 1400m | | | 1800m | | | 2400m | |
| | | 1399m | | | 1799m | | | 2399m | | | 3200m | |
| 3yo | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% |
| Overall | 19544 | 7343 | 37.6% | 8766 | 3158 | 36.0% | 1712 | 601 | 35.1% | 138 | 50 | 36.2% |
| Metropolitan | 3589 | 1259 | 35.1% | 1982 | 676 | 34.1% | 441 | 145 | 32.9% | 77 | 28 | 36.4% |
| Provincial | 7861 | 2987 | 38.0% | 3995 | 1467 | 36.7% | 897 | 306 | 34.1% | 49 | 19 | 38.8% |
| Country | 8094 | 3097 | 38.3% | 2789 | 1015 | 36.4% | 374 | 150 | 40.1% | na | na | na |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 800m | | | 1400m | | | 1800m | | | 2400m | |
| | | 1399m | | | 1799m | | | 2399m | | | 3200m | |
| 4yo+ | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% |
| Overall | 35020 | 11565 | 33.0% | 22314 | 6987 | 31.3% | 8174 | 2695 | 33.0% | 1466 | 494 | 33.7% |
| Metropolitan | 4953 | 1594 | 32.2% | 4256 | 1345 | 31.6% | 2119 | 674 | 31.8% | 637 | 199 | 31.2% |
| Provincial | 8574 | 2889 | 33.7% | 6543 | 2043 | 31.2% | 2747 | 931 | 33.9% | 662 | 239 | 36.1% |
| Country | 21493 | 7082 | 33.0% | 11515 | 3599 | 31.3% | 3308 | 1090 | 33.0% | 167 | 56 | 33.5% |
na - insufficient runners for meaningful result
To provide some further context to these results I have calculated the percentage of distance range sub-sets of the four researched distance ranges.
Table 2 - Distance Range sub-sets
| | 2yo | | | | 3yo | | | | 4yo+ | |
| | 800m | | | | 800m | | | | 800m | |
| | 1399m | | | | 1399m | | | | 1399m | |
| total | 3812 | | | total | 19544 | | | total | 35020 | |
| to 1199m | 2492 | 65% | | to 1199m | 9709 | 50% | | to 1199m | 16490 | 47% |
| 12-1399m | 1320 | 35% | | 12-1399m | 9835 | 50% | | 12-1399m | 18530 | 53% |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| | 2yo | | | | 3yo | | | | 4yo+ | |
| | 1400m | | | | 1400m | | | | 1400m | |
| | 1799m | | | | 1799m | | | | 1799m | |
| total | 371 | | | total | 8766 | | | total | 22314 | |
| 14-1699m | 368 | 100% | | 14-1699m | 8487 | 97% | | 14-1699m | 21145 | 95% |
| 17-1799m | 3 | na | | 17-1799m | 279 | 3% | | 17-1799m | 1169 | 5% |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| | 2yo | | | | 3yo | | | | 4yo+ | |
| | 1800m | | | | 1800m | | | | 1800m | |
| | 2399m | | | | 2399m | | | | 2399m | |
| total | na | | | total | 1712 | | | total | 8174 | |
| | | | | 18-1899m | 548 | 32% | | 18-1899m | 2273 | 28% |
| | | | | 19-2199m | 909 | 53% | | 19-2199m | 4573 | 56% |
| | | | | 22-2399m | 255 | 15% | | 22-2399m | 1328 | 16% |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| | 2yo | | | | 3yo | | | | 4yo+ | |
| | 2400m | | | | 2400m | | | | 2400m | |
| | 3200m | | | | 3200m | | | | 3200m | |
| total | na | | | total | 138 | | | total | 1466 | |
| | | | | 24-2500m | 90 | 65% | | 24-2500m | 783 | 53% |
| | | | | >2500m | 48 | 35% | | >2500m | 683 | 47% |
Note: The relative high percentage for the 4yo+ horses in the >2500m category is due to jumping races being included.
Some take-aways from this analysis:
- For 4yo and older the win strike rates are similar across all locations.
- For 3yo's win strikes rates are higher in provincial and country racing.
- Win strike rates are generally higher for 3yo gallopers compared to those of 4yo+.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com