Wizard Daily Report and Research - Thursday, 4 January 2024.
Days since last run (part 2)
Days since last run - fresher and first-up
This report looks at the performance of the Starting Price (SP) Favourite when returning to the racetrack after an absence of 29 days or more.
For this report the ranges are:
29 - 60 days
61 - 180 days
180 - 365 days
More than 365 days
The results cover two full racing seasons, 2021-2022 and 2022-2023.
The analysis reports on the success rate of the Starting Price Favourite in terms of:
Location - this analysis looks at this success rate:
- Overall - all locations
- Metropolitan racing
- Provincial racing
- Country racing
Age - the data is further broken down into three age groups:
- 2yo gallopers
- 3yo gallopers
- 4yo+ gallopers
Table - Days since last run - fresher and first-up - age and location.
| | | Days | | | Days | | | Days | | | Days | |
| | | 29-60 | | | 61-180 | | | 181-365 | | | >365 | |
| 2yo | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% |
| Overall | *80 | 30 | 37.5% | 183 | 71 | 38.8% | *14 | 8 | 57.1 | na | na | na |
| Metropolitan | na | na | na | *63 | 22 | 34.9% | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| Provincial | na | na | na | *75 | 29 | 38.7% | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| Country | na | na | na | *45 | 20 | 44.4% | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 29-60 | | | 61-180 | | | 181-365 | | | >365 | |
| 3yo | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% |
| Overall | 675 | 245 | 36.3% | 1591 | 593 | 37.3% | 397 | 145 | 36.5% | *16 | 8 | 50.0% |
| Metropolitan | 126 | 37 | *29.4% | 357 | 118 | 33.1% | *66 | 21 | 31.8% | na | na | na |
| Provincial | 259 | 100 | 38.6% | 724 | 275 | 38.0% | 197 | 69 | 35.0% | na | na | na |
| Country | 290 | 108 | 37.2% | 510 | 200 | 39.2% | 134 | 55 | 41.0% | na | na | na |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 29-60 | | | 61-180 | | | 181-365 | | | >365 | |
| 4yo+ | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% |
| Overall | 1751 | 527 | 30.1% | 1809 | 634 | 35.0% | 780 | 268 | 34.4% | *97 | 33 | 34.0% |
| Metropolitan | 303 | 87 | 28.7% | 433 | 154 | 35.6% | 137 | 45 | 32.8% | *21 | 4 | 19.0% |
| Provincial | 523 | 148 | 28.3% | 614 | 215 | 35.0% | 322 | 109 | 33.9% | *38 | 15 | 39.5% |
| Country | 925 | 292 | 31.6% | 762 | 265 | 34.5% | 321 | 114 | 35.5% | *38 | 14 | 36.8% |
na - insufficient runners for meaningful result
Some take-aways from this analysis:
- For 4yo and older the win strike rates are significantly lower in the 29-60 days range.
- For 3yo's win strikes rates are similar across the board, unlike over the shorter breaks.
- Where a number is asterisked the figure should be treated with caution; either an outlier or too low a number.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com