Last start winners - First four favourites

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Sunday, 7 January 2024.

Last start winners - First four favourites

This report looks at the performance of the first four Starting Price (SP) favourites when they ran as a last-start winner.

The results cover two full racing seasons, 2021-2022 and 2022-2023.

The analysis reports on the success rate of the first four last-start-winning favourites in terms of:

Location - this analysis looks at this success rate:

  • Overall all locations
  • Metropolitan racing
  • Provincial racing
  • Country racing

Age - the data is further broken down into three age groups:

  • 2yo gallopers
  • 3yo gallopers
  • 4yo+ gallopers

(Note: A further condition has been applied in this analysis - the horse must have raced within the last 1 to 59 days; that is, we are excluding horses resuming from a spell.)

 

Table  1 - Last start winner - First four SP favourites (2021-2023 seasons)

2yo1st favWinwin%2nd favWinwin%3rd favWinwin%4th favWinwin%
Overall25711645.1%1744123.6%1171311.1%*9133.3%
Metropolitan1677343.7%1052725.7%*76911.8%*6723.0%
Provincial*451942.2%*38821.1%*2528.0%*900.0%
Country*452453.5%*31619.4%*16212.5%*1516.7%
             
3yo1st favWinwin%2nd favWinwin%3rd favWinwin%4th favWinwin%
Overall191969436.2%128925719.9%98113313.6%7908811.1%
Metropolitan76423831.9%53711922.2%4285813.6%323319.6%
Provincial65725038.1%4276815.9%3294614.0%2783211.5%
Country51620639.9%3257021.5%2242912.9%1892513.2%
             
4yo+1st favWinwin%2nd favWinwin%3rd favWinwin%4th favWinwin%
Overall4565162235.5%344170720.5%287638113.2%25462509.8%
Metropolitan144649534.2%104919318.4%83411413.7%797678.4%
Provincial125643734.8%97922022.5%83911013.1%783769.7%
Country186369037.0%141329420.8%120315713.1%96610711.1%

* insufficient runners for meaningful result

 

To provide a frame of reference the following table summarises the win strike rate for the first four favourites, over the last 5 years. Here there are no conditions applied, so the data covers all SP first favourites, just broken down by age and location.

The data is presented in two ways:

  • Grouped by age
  • Grouped by favouritism

 

                                                                  Table 2 - Win strike rates of the first four SP favourites (5 years)

 2yo2yo2yo2yo3yo3yo3yo3yo4yo+4yo+4yo+4yo+
 1st fav2nd fav3rd fav4th fav1st fav2nd fav3rd fav4th fav1st fav2nd fav3rd fav4th fav
Overall38.6%20.4%12.8%9.2%37.0%20.2%13.3%9.7%32.5%19.5%13.6%9.9%
Metrop36.2%21.8%11.7%8.9%34.6%19.9%13.7%9.7%31.9%18.6%12.8%9.8%
Prov37.9%18.5%14.8%9.8%37.3%20.6%13.3%9.2%33.0%19.6%13.8%9.5%
Country43.3%21.6%11.3%8.8%37.9%19.8%13.1%10.1%32.4%19.7%13.8%10.1%
             
             
 2yo3yo4yo+2yo3yo4yo+2yo3yo4yo+2yo3yo4yo+
 1st fav1st fav1st fav2nd fav2nd fav2nd fav3rd fav3rd fav3rd fav4th fav4th fav4th fav
Overall38.6%37.0%32.5%20.4%20.2%19.5%12.8%13.3%13.6%9.2%9.7%9.9%
Metrop36.2%34.6%31.9%21.8%19.9%18.6%11.7%13.7%12.8%8.9%9.7%9.8%
Prov37.9%37.3%33.0%18.5%20.6%19.6%14.8%13.3%13.8%9.8%9.2%9.5%
Country43.3%37.9%32.4%21.6%19.8%19.7%11.3%13.1%13.8%8.8%10.1%10.1%

 

Some take-aways about the presence of last-start winning form:

  • For 4yo+ gallopers, positive impact with 1st and 2nd favourites; mixed with 3rd and 4th.
  • For 3yo's, generally positive with the 1st and 4th favourites; mixed with 2nd and 3rd favourites.
  • Win strike rates are generally higher for 3yo gallopers compared to 4yo+.

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com



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