Wizard Daily Report and Research - Monday, 8 January 2024.
Last start form - First four favourites - Wizard Rating
These reports look at the performance of the Starting Price (SP) Favourite in relation to (1) its last start form and (2) its position in the market, and integrates the Wizard Rating (Wrat) into the analysis.
The results cover two full racing seasons, 2021-2022 and 2022-2023.
The analysis reports on the overall success rate of the Starting Price Favourite and how these runners performed when they ran as the Wizard 100 pointer.
The analysis reports on three age groups:
- 2yo gallopers
- 3yo gallopers
- 4yo+ gallopers
In table-1 the last start finish position ranges are:
- 1st only (LS win)
- 2nd - 3rd place (LS 2/3)
- 4th - 6th place (LS 4/6)
- 7th - 10th place (LS 7/10)
Table 1 - Last start form - Overall and Wizard Rated.
| 2yo | LS win | Win | win% | LS 2/3 | Win | win% | LS 4/6 | Win | win% | LS 7/10 | Win | win% |
| Overall | 257 | 116 | 45.1% | 382 | 160 | 41.9% | 159 | 59 | 37.1% | *41 | 17 | 41.5% |
| Wizard Wrat | 183 | 85 | 46.4% | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 3yo | LS win | Win | win% | LS 2/3 | Win | win% | LS 4/6 | Win | win% | LS 7/10 | Win | win% |
| Overall | 1919 | 694 | 36.2% | 3743 | 1462 | 39.1% | 1870 | 691 | 37.0% | 624 | 225 | 36.1% |
| Wizard Wrat | 1282 | 496 | 38.7% | 2394 | 990 | 41.4% | 742 | 299 | 40.3% | 146 | 59 | 40.4% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 4yo+ | LS win | Win | win% | LS 2/3 | Win | win% | LS 4/6 | Win | win% | LS 7/10 | Win | win% |
| Overall | 4565 | 1622 | 35.5% | 7905 | 2677 | 33.9% | 4814 | 1494 | 31.0% | 2011 | 598 | 29.7% |
| Wizard Wrat | 3013 | 1136 | 37.7% | 4085 | 1493 | 36.5% | 1606 | 536 | 33.4% | 448 | 156 | 34.8% |
* insufficient runners for meaningful result
na - insufficient runners for meaningful result
Table 2 - First four favourites - Overall and Wizard Rated
| 2yo | 1st fav | Win | win% | 2nd fav | Win | win% | 3rd fav | Win | win% | 4th fav | Win | win% |
| Overall | 257 | 116 | 45.1% | 174 | 41 | 23.6% | 117 | 13 | 11.1% | *91 | 3 | 3.3% |
| Wizard Wrat | 183 | 85 | 46.4% | *63 | 15 | 23.8% | *30 | 5 | 16.7% | *12 | 1 | 8.3% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 3yo | 1st fav | Win | win% | 2nd fav | Win | win% | 3rd fav | Win | win% | 4th fav | Win | win% |
| Overall | 1919 | 694 | 36.2% | 1289 | 257 | 19.9% | 981 | 133 | 13.6% | 790 | 88 | 11.1% |
| Wizard Wrat | 1282 | 486 | 37.9% | 526 | 111 | 21.1% | 250 | 38 | 15.2% | 166 | 20 | 12.0% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 4yo+ | 1st fav | Win | win% | 2nd fav | Win | win% | 3rd fav | Win | win% | 4th fav | Win | win% |
| Overall | 4565 | 1622 | 35.5% | 3441 | 707 | 20.5% | 2876 | 381 | 13.2% | 2546 | 250 | 9.8% |
| Wizard Wrat | 3013 | 1112 | 36.9% | 1361 | 291 | 21.4% | 756 | 107 | 14.1% | 482 | 51 | 10.6% |
* insufficient runners for meaningful result
na - insufficient runners for meaningful result
Again, these results show that there is an uplift factor in play when the SP favourite is rated 100 by the Wizard under these different criteria.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com