Active TopicsActive Topics  Display List of Forum MembersMemberlist  Search The ForumSearch  HelpHelp
  RegisterRegister  LoginLogin
Selection Strategies
 Wizard Forum : Selection Strategies
Subject Topic: Choosing a base ratingb Post ReplyPost New Topic
Author
Message << Prev Topic | Next Topic >>
galloper
Newbie
Newbie
Avatar

Joined: 03 August 2003
Location: Australia
Posts: 5
Posted: 03 August 2003 at 8:51pm | IP Logged Quote galloper

Hi. As an ardent Don Scott fan, I have always been fascinated by base ratings, as they are the most crucial element to producing future ratings. I bet only on certain types of races - of which a crucial factor is that all runners in a race have had 3 runs in this campaign. This eliminates weak races with doubtful data and trying to predict future ratings on horses 1st or 2nd up - who may return ratings far different from the ones attributed to them. To derive my base rating, I sum the last three runs, divide by 3 and therefore have an average figure - then apply bonuses and penalties. If there is an obvious bad rating and excuses are there (ie jockey fell off, pulled up lame etc) I average the two other figures and divide by two to gain the base rating. My question therefore is: Is it better to choose the best figure of the last 3 (a lah Don Scott) or average them out to obtain a base rating?
Back to Top View galloper's Profile Search for other posts by galloper Send Private Message Add to Buddy List
 
everychance
Groupie
Groupie


Joined: 31 July 2003
Posts: 19
Posted: 03 August 2003 at 10:59pm | IP Logged Quote everychance

Hi galloper,

I know what you mean re: the difficulty in coming up with a base rating. What I do is emphasis best recent form. If a horses last run is its best from its last 3 starts I use that as a base. For all other cases it is a bit trickier. Things like varying track conditions ie failed on wet last 2 starts and back to good or drew a nightmare barrier and was 5 wide all the way etc are reasons I have used to ignore failures. I have a set of values I use to adjust the horses last start up by a max amount depending on on if it is improving/declining and how it is rating compared to expected and current peaks. If the adjusted last start is greater than its best rating from the last 3 I take the best rating returned. If it is less than the best rating I take the adjusted last start rating.

 eg Missile Stks - Scottish Pride LS 54 best 63 which is less than its expected peak of 64. Under my method the max expected improvement for a 7yo under these conditions is 6.5kg making 60.5 the best rating I could possibly give the horse as a base. BY way of comparison Academe's LS rating of 60 was equal to its best this prep and last 3 starts so used it as a base. This is just something I have come up with after reading some other research. I would like to know of other methods. Especially pertaining to 1st-up/2nd-up runners as they can be quite tricky to assess.

everychance



__________________
"Analysing the present with a view to the past to predict the future."
Back to Top View everychance's Profile Search for other posts by everychance Send Private Message Add to Buddy List
 
freelance
Newbie
Newbie
Avatar

Joined: 19 October 2004
Location: Australia
Posts: 7
Posted: 21 October 2004 at 12:57am | IP Logged Quote freelance

Choosing a base rating, if one chooses to go about the rating / (selection) process this way, is indeed crucial.

I recommend choosing 1 or 2 recent runs where the horse ran at +,- 100m preferrably (max. 200) for distances of 1600m and less, and at +,- 200m preferrably (max.400) for distances greater than 1600m. These runs should be on the same track condition (or +,- 1 track condition maximum) ie; Today Good - runs should come from Fast, Good, or Dead only. So it would be wise to rate for Good tracks usually, and only ever rate for Slow tracks during winter where much of the previous data has eventuated from rain affected tracks (eg; Melbourne). 

To look at the finer points of these runs, one should assess the suitability of the circumstances under which which the race was run, ie; distance, track condition, runs since spell, days to start before run, race class, weight allotted, jockey, barrier and distance to first turn at the race distance, makeup of the field with regard to barrier draws and likely positions to be taken up in running and whether the horse had to use up excessive energy in the early part of the race or had an easy beginning which allowed it to retain energy for the final 300m run to the post.

Obviously there are far more points than these, however the above recommendations are those usually of commonly greater importance. Having said this there are races (less common) where these factors are of lesser importance and the final result of the particular race can be found to have it`s greatest bearing of factors outside the commonly regarded "usual square".    

Finely developed intuition will often tell us which races to rate and which races may require excessive amounts of time/lateral approaches to successfully solve. However, if one is willing to put in the extra effort, the rewards can be astounding.    

Good Luck !

 

 



__________________
The Prophet of Longshots
Back to Top View freelance's Profile Search for other posts by freelance Send Private Message Add to Buddy List
 
stickastars
Newbie
Newbie
Avatar

Joined: 19 January 2006
Posts: -2
Posted: 10 April 2009 at 9:14pm | IP Logged Quote stickastars

Hi All

 

Was wondering if anyone over time have come up with a more accurate method or improved rules on consistantly finding an accurate base rating

 

Ant

Back to Top View stickastars's Profile Search for other posts by stickastars Send Private Message Add to Buddy List
 

If you wish to post a reply to this topic you must first login
If you are not already registered you must first register

  Post ReplyPost New Topic
Printable version Printable version

Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot create polls in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum