|Posted: 21 October 2004 at 12:57am | IP Logged
Choosing a base rating, if one chooses to go about the rating / (selection) process this way, is indeed crucial.
I recommend choosing 1 or 2 recent runs where the horse ran at +,- 100m preferrably (max. 200) for distances of 1600m and less, and at +,- 200m preferrably (max.400) for distances greater than 1600m. These runs should be on the same track condition (or +,- 1 track condition maximum) ie; Today Good - runs should come from Fast, Good, or Dead only. So it would be wise to rate for Good tracks usually, and only ever rate for Slow tracks during winter where much of the previous data has eventuated from rain affected tracks (eg; Melbourne).
To look at the finer points of these runs, one should assess the suitability of the circumstances under which which the race was run, ie; distance, track condition, runs since spell, days to start before run, race class, weight allotted, jockey, barrier and distance to first turn at the race distance, makeup of the field with regard to barrier draws and likely positions to be taken up in running and whether the horse had to use up excessive energy in the early part of the race or had an easy beginning which allowed it to retain energy for the final 300m run to the post.
Obviously there are far more points than these, however the above recommendations are those usually of commonly greater importance. Having said this there are races (less common) where these factors are of lesser importance and the final result of the particular race can be found to have it`s greatest bearing of factors outside the commonly regarded "usual square".
Finely developed intuition will often tell us which races to rate and which races may require excessive amounts of time/lateral approaches to successfully solve. However, if one is willing to put in the extra effort, the rewards can be astounding.
Good Luck !
The Prophet of Longshots