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Subject Topic: Wizard Peak Ratings - new data Post ReplyPost New Topic
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warrenblock
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Joined: 31 July 2003
Location: Australia
Posts: 267
Posted: 31 July 2003 at 4:46pm | IP Logged Quote warrenblock

PEAK RATINGS

  • Current Peak Rating
  • Last Preparation Peak Rating
  • Previous Preparation Peak Rating
  • Distance Peak Rating
  • Wet Track Peak Rating

The Wizard formguide has made another vital addition to its ratings information.. the inclusion of key Peak Ratings for all runners.

The reason recorded peak ratings are so important to the keen race handicapper is that they place in context the horse’s current form.

For example, a horse is having its fourth run from a spell and last start rated 57kg. The vital question confronting the rater is whether or not there is any evidence in the horse’s past form that it can improve on this rating.

Now, if we know that the horse ran a weight for age adjusted peak rating last preparation of 60kg then there is every reason to believe that the horse could improve on its current 57kg.

On the other hand, if the best wfa adjusted rating from its last prep was 55kg and the peak before that was 54kg, then there must be an element of doubt surrounding its ability to improve on the 57kg.

These peak rating "flesh out" the ratings history of the runner being examined, and can help to raise your understanding of a horse’s capabilites and potential to a new level.

Current Peak Rating

The Current Peak rating is the horse’s best rating recorded in the current preparation, adjusted for weight for age improvement.

Younger horses, 2yo and 3yo gallopers, can make natural wfa improvement amounting to several kilograms during a single preparation so it’s worth noting their potential by looking not only at the actual ratings run this prep but also at the potential figure that could be recorded if the effort was repeated in the coming race, with the predicted natural wfa improvement also taking place.

Last (preparation) Peak Rating

Once a horse has returned from a break of 63 days or more, we then have a "last preparation" with which to work, and from this we can calculate a Last Peak rating, often referred to as the Expected Peak rating.

To determine the Last Peak rating we take each of the race ratings run last preparation and to each we add the appropriate wfa adjustment. The highest gross figure becomes the horse’s Last Peak rating for this current campaign.

Previous (preparation) Peak Rating

If the horse is in its third preparation, then we have two past preparations that have the potential, the very real potential, to throw light on the horse’s prospects in the current campaign.

The Previous Peak rating is the highest gross rating (base race rating + wfa improvement) that was recorded by the horse two preps ago.

Race form from two preparations ago should not be ignored. Even with younger horses, the ratings earned some time ago can predict with remarkable accuracy the ratings that horses are capable of producing in the current campaign

Distance Peak Rating

This Distance Peak rating is calculated in the same manner as the above peaks, but in this case only those ratings earned in a race within 10% of the distance of the forthcoming race, and from the current and two previous preps, are taken into account.

Distance ability is a key factor determining the outcome of many races, and it is very useful indeed if you have an insight into the rating that a horse might be able to produce, on its best form, in the distance range of the coming race.

Wet Track Peak Rating

The Wet Track Peak rating is also based on a three preparation time horizon and is calculated in the same manner as all of the other peak ratings. Only form on slow and heavy tracks is taken into account when calculating this peak rating.

Warren Block, Publisher

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