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Simon Johnson
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Posted: 24 July 2007 at 12:19pm | IP Logged Quote Simon Johnson

Hi Warren!

I understand how you come to a figure for the condition penalties of a horse in an upcoming race but how do you assess the figures for Form and Consistency? What does +/- 1 mean? Does this mean +/- 1kg OR +/- 1 length?  Is there a table on Superform Online we can find these or is it just personal judgement?

Cheers Budgee



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warrenblock
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Posted: 24 July 2007 at 12:30pm | IP Logged Quote warrenblock

G'day Budgee,

The +/- changes are in kilograms. So +1.5 would be a 'bonus' of 1.5kg, which would be added to the Base Rating of the horse to arrive at the Final Rating. The opposite would apply for a negative adjustment.

The adjustments were based on the tables published in Don Scott's books which we incorporated into the ratings process a very long time ago when Don was associated with Superform, with some minor modifications.

Cheers

Warren

 

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Simon Johnson
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Posted: 24 July 2007 at 2:39pm | IP Logged Quote Simon Johnson

Hi Warren!

Thankyou for the quick reply! I do have access to Don Scott's books and will check them out.

One quick question. I often see horses that have only had a small number of starts and have quite a bit of ability but don't seem to have a Rating or WFA rating to match. If you do your analysis of the race you have them at such a high price yet the bookmakers have them short and they do win according to the price the bookies have them. There must be some sort of rule for bonuses that you can give these horses? The same sort of question can apply to the following, if you have been told that "your horse" has improved 3 lengths on its last run how can you factor this in to your pricing?

Cheers Budgee



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warrenblock
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Posted: 24 July 2007 at 4:04pm | IP Logged Quote warrenblock

G'day Budgee,

The type of 'improver' to which you are referring is extremely difficult to rate. There is no formula that can really be applied across the board. There is simply too little information/form and the 'tried and true' ratings techniques are not of much use in this situation.

I do try to allow for the likely improvement in these horses when I rate a race for the Superform selection service and you will quite often see a horse priced shorter than its available ratings would predict should be the case. This is especially true of lightly raced horses from the better stables; these horses, in particular, can improve 4 to 6kg very quickly - even between starts - and no accross-the-board ratings approach can allow for this ... otherwise one's past ratings data base would be all over the place.

As I said, there is no 'rule of thumb', just watch out for these young, lightly raced horses, trained by talented mentors, and give them an additional length or two or three (1.5 to 4.5kg) when appropriate. If the horse does not deliver then you can always treat them more conservatively next time.

Cheers

Warren

 

 

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