The Betting Essentials Book on Horse Racing by Warren Block

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Warren Block's Daily Report

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Wizard Facebook Post - Melbourne Cup - Favourite Analysed

BETTING ESSENTIALS - RA says: There is a wealth of information. The statistics and form patterns are most informative.

 

Warren Block's Daily Report - Tuesday, 3 November 2026

  • Wizard Facebook Post - Melbourne Cup - Favourite Analysed
  • "Winningest" jockeys and Winning Jockeys back-on
  • Matrix - day by day analysis of Tuesday and Wednesday racing
  • Wizard Freebie - Wizard Raceday report
  • Wizard Ratings, Raceday, Matrix, and Selectives Results

 

Wizard Facebook Post - Melbourne Cup - Favourite Analysed

Here is the list of jockeys who rode at least a double at any of the Tab meetings last week, along with the trainers for whom they rode the winners. This table is colour coded to highlight the outperformers and it is definitely worth noting these riders and combinations.

WIZARD FORMGUIDE - Be Better Informed

Melbourne Cup Reviewed - 2005 to 2025

Tuesday - 3 November 2026

Saturday - Part 1 - The Jockeys & Trainers

Sunday    - Part 2 - Lead-in-Race Analysis

Monday  - Part 3 - The Market Movements

Today      - Part 4 - The Favourites Analysed

PART 4 - THE FAVOURITES ANALYSED

       How have Melbourne Cup favourites performed? Over the 21 Cups since 2005 there have been 23 favourites, including equal favourites in 2006 and 2017, with two of them winning. In the previous 21 years (1984-2004) there were 6 winning favourites from 24 first or equal-first favourites. Here is every favourite with its Cup finish, market moves over the last 45 minutes, jockey, trainer and lead-in race.

       Between 2005 and 2025 there were 2 winners from 23 favourites (2 races with equal favorites): Makybe Diva (2005) and Fiorente (2013) were the winners. In the previous 21 years (1984-2004) there were 6 winning favourites from 24 first or equal-first favourites.

       Caulfield Cup: 13 favourites came out of the Caulfield Cup over last 21 years and none have won, including all six that had won the Caulfield Cup.

       Cox Plate edge: 2 of the 3 favourites that came out of the Cox Plate won the Melbourne Cup.

       Market moves of favourites: 10 favourites firmed in the final 45 minutes, 4 eased, and 9 remained steady from their 45 minute odds.

       Six of 23 favourites (26%) finished in the top three, and 9 finished 11th or worse

       Late money has not helped: 10 favs firmed in the final 45 minutes and only Fiorente won. Presage Nocturne firmed from $9 to $5.50 in 2025 and finished 19th

 

2025 Presage Nocturne: 19th in Cup. Market: $9.00 $9.00 $5.50. Stephane Pasquier / Alessandro Botti. Lead-in: Caulfield Cup, 4th.

2024 Buckaroo: 9th in Cup. Market: $7.00 $7.00 $6.00. Joao Moreira / Chris Waller. Lead-in: Caulfield Cup, 2nd.

2023 Vauban: 14th in Cup. Market: $5.00 $5.00 $5.50. Ryan Moore / Willie Mullins. Lead-in: Ballyroan Stakes, won.

2022 Deauville Legend: 4th in Cup. Market: $4.20 $4.50 $4.50. Kerrin McEvoy / James Ferguson. Lead-in: Great Voltigeur, won.

2021 Incentivise: 2nd in Cup. Market: $2.90 $2.80 $2.90. Brett Prebble / Peter Moody. Lead-in: Caulfield Cup, won.

2020 Surprise Baby: 13th in Cup. Market: $7.00 $7.50 $6.00. Craig Williams / Paul Preusker. Lead-in: Turnbull Stakes, 9th.

2019 Finche: 7th in Cup. Market: $8.00 $8.00 $8.00. Kerrin McEvoy / Chris Waller. Lead-in: Caulfield Cup, 5th.

2018 Yucatan: 11th in Cup. Market: $6.50 $7.00 $6.00. James McDonald / Aidan O'Brien. Lead-in: Herbert Power, won.

2017 Marmelo: 9th in Cup. Market: $8.00 $8.00 $7.00. Hugh Bowman / Hughie Morrison. Lead-in: Caulfield Cup, 6th.

2017 Almandin: 12th in Cup. Market: $9.00 $9.00 $7.00. Frankie Dettori / Robert Hickmott. Lead-in: Bart Cummings, 4th.

2016 Hartnell: 3rd in Cup. Market: $5.50 $6.00 $5.50. James McDonald / John O'Shea. Lead-in: Cox Plate, 2nd.

2015 Fame Game: 13th in Cup. Market: $5.00 $4.50 $5.00. Zac Purton / Yosh Munakata. Lead-in: Caulfield Cup, 6th.

2014 Admire Rakti: 22nd in Cup. Market: $6.00 $6.00 $5.50. Zac Purton / Tomoyuki Umeda. Lead-in: Caulfield Cup, won.

2013 Fiorente: WON in Cup. Market: $7.50 $7.50 $7.00. Damien Oliver / Gai Waterhouse. Lead-in: Cox Plate, 3rd.

2012 Dunaden: 14th in Cup. Market: $7.00 $7.00 $7.00. Craig Williams / Mikel Delzangles. Lead-in: Caulfield Cup, won.

2011 Americain: 4th in Cup. Market: $5.00 $5.50 $5.00. Gerald Mosse / Alain de Royer-Dupre. Lead-in: MV Drake International Cup, won.

2010 So You Think: 3rd in Cup. Market: $3.00 $3.00 $3.00. Steven Arnold / Bart Cummings. Lead-in: Mackinnon Stakes, won.

2009 Alcopop: 6th in Cup. Market: $5.00 $5.50 $4.80. Dom Tourneur / Jake Stephens. Lead-in: Caulfield Cup, won.

2008 Mad Rush: 7th in Cup. Market: $5.50 $6.00 $5.50. Damien Oliver / Luca Cumani. Lead-in: Caulfield Cup, 4th.

2007 Master O'Reilly: 8th in Cup. Market: $3.50 $3.50 $3.80. Vlad Duric / Danny O'Brien. Lead-in: Caulfield Cup, won.

2006 Pop Rock: 2nd in Cup. Market: $7.00 $7.50 $6.00. Damien Oliver / Katsuhiko Sumii. Lead-in: Caulfield Cup, 7th.

2006 Tawqeet: 19th in Cup. Market: $5.50 $5.50 $6.00. Dwayne Dunn / David Hayes. Lead-in: Caulfield Cup, won.

2005 Makybe Diva: WON in Cup. Market: $4.20 $4.50 $4.50. Glen Boss / Lee Freedman. Lead-in: Cox Plate, won.

Statistics only, not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.

#MelbourneCup #HorseRacing #Flemington #RacingStats #WizardFormguide

 

 "Winningest" jockeys and Winning Jockeys back-on

Here is the list of jockeys who rode at least a double at any of the Tab meetings last week, along with the trainers for whom they rode the winners. This table is colour coded to highlight the outperformers and it is definitely worth noting these riders and combinations.

It is also worth noting when a jockey who has previously won on a horse is replacing a rider who has not done so. Whilst history shows that this is not a prime indicator of likely success, it can be significant in some cases.

The list below shows the winning horses last week that raced with a (previous) winning jockey replacing a rider who had not previously been successful on the horse.

It is also worth noting when a jockey who has previously won on a horse is replacing a rider who has not done so. Whilst history shows that this is not a prime indicator of likely success, it can be significant in some cases.

The list below shows the winning horses last week that raced with a (previous) winning jockey replacing a rider who had not previously been successful on the horse.

 

Matrix - day by day analysis of Tuesday and Wednesday racing

The tables show the results for the past eight weeks for the day on which racing occurred. So, today being Tuesday, this Matrix DOW (Day of Week) report covers the past eight Tuesday and Wednesday results. The day-after results are included so that they are available on race-eve, rather than only on race morning.

(The daily Matrix report aims to assist subscribers contain the number of bets to manageable proportions and improve the strike rate. The report is posted to our website between 10:30am and 10:45am each day with an update at 12 noon.)

 

Wizard Freebie - Wizard Raceday report

The Wizard publishes on this page one of its Wizard reports or special features, either completely or a part thereof, and today the Wizard Freebie is the Wizard Raceday for two meetings. The full Raceday Report and the other Wizard reports for all meetings are now available to subscribers.

The Raceday report is an important component of the Wizard's uniquely successful race-morning MATRIX report whose Selectives consistently outperform traditional rating methodologies

Click here for a full explanation of the Wizard Raceday Report.

 

Wizard Ratings, Raceday, Matrix, and Selectives results

We publish these full results daily so that subscribers can see the results of the Wizard's ratings options, and Report-content, and thereby formulate a selecting and betting strategy that suits them individually. The Wizard ratings should not be seen as "tips", rather as objective assessments that can be used to inform one's own judgement as to the relative chances of the runners in a race.

The full day-by-day results for Wizard (Wrat) top 4 rated runners, the Raceday Qualifier, and the Matrix (MaxR) 100 pointer, the MaxR top-two, the What-IF top-two Filtered, together with the Matrix W1+MaxR100 Selective qualifier, and the Matrix W1+*EO+MaxR100 Selective qualifier. Also included are the overall results for last week and the last four weeks. The 2024-2025 column shows the WRat results for the full racing season.

This results summary is colour coded so that it is easier for readers to track the relative performance of the Top Rated (blue) and Top-Two Rated (green) ratings options on a daily, and longer term, basis. The best overall qualifier (yellow) is highlighted. Also, the single runner options are grouped separately, as are the two-horse and multi-horse options results, again to make comparisons easier.

The following table shows this week's results of alternative options with respect to possible Matrix Selectives combinations, as well as weekly summaries. These combinations are accessible via the Wizard MATRIX report which is posted to our website between 10:30am and 10:45am each day.

(Key: The first of the two columns for each Selective combination shows number of qualifying races and the second column shows the strike rate. Headings: RWM is Raceday,Watch,Magic, RWM 2/3 means two or three qualifying, Rday is Raceday report qualifier, Magic is Magic report qualifier, R/M is Raceday and Magic, WR1 is Wrat 100, MR1 is MaxR 100.)

The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by WRat, WMod, WHcp, and WExpk and was the qualifier in the Wizard Raceday Report. (Note: The Wrat [W] winner results report on both the top rated and top-two rated winners.) The Raceday Report winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there were two qualifiers in a race.

 Header: WMHER = WRat (W), WMod (M), WHcp (H), WExpk (E), Raceday (R).

For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results

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Everyrace Website

Welcome to everyrace.com, the official website for the Wizard Formguide, Superform magazine and Online Handicapping.

The Wizard provides an in-depth, comprehensive coverage (ratings, statistics, reports, and detailed race form) for all Australian and New Zealand meetings covered by Tabcorp.

As well as the Wizard ratings, statistics, reports and detailed form, Wizard users can access the Wizard rewards program, featuring the Wizard archive and Wizard Systems.

Superform subscribers receive the weekly Superform magazine (results for all meetings in Australia and New Zealand), the daily Superfax selections service, the Saturday Morning Mail service, and access to the Superform Daily handicapping system.

The Wizard is an online formguide available every day from this website. It provides form and ratings for all Australian and New Zealand meetings covered by Tabcorp.

The formguide is supplied as downloadable and printable PDF files. Buying the Wizard also gives you access to the Wizard rewards program, featuring the Wizard archive and the ability to generate individualised Wizard Systems.

The Betting Essentials Book on Horse Racing by Warren Block

Wizard

The Wizard is an online formguide available every day from this website. It provides form and ratings for all Australian and New Zealand meetings covered by Tabcorp.

The formguide is supplied as downloadable and printable PDF files. Buying the Wizard also gives you access to the Wizard rewards program, featuring the Wizard archive and the Wizard Systems.

You also have access to the Wizard Race Fields, incredibly detailed form history and statistical content live on our site (which is also optimised for mobiles)

   03/11/2026 : ASCOT(s)
BUNBURY(s)
CANBERRA(s)
DARWIN(s)
DOOMBEN(s)
ECHUCA(s)
ELLERSLIE(s)
FLEMINGTON(s)
GERALDTON(s)
GOLD COAST POLY(s)
HOBART(s)
KEMBLA GRANGE(s)
MORPHETTVILLE(s)
MUSWELLBROOK(s)
RANDWICK(s)
SUNSHINE COAST(s)
SUNSHINE COAST POLY(s)
WANGARATTA(s)
WINGATUI(s)
   04/11/2026 : GRAFTON(nr)
HAWERA(nr)
KYNETON(nr)
PORT LINCOLN(nr)
Meetings being covered by the Wizard
(s) indicates that scratchings have been processed.
(nr) indicates early fields and form without any ratings.

Superform

For decades, Superform has been Australia's premier ratings, results, form analysis and race handicapping service.

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