The Betting Essentials Book on Horse Racing by Warren Block

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Warren Block's Daily Report

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BETTING ESSENTIALS - BJ says - "Working my way through it. It is a helluva book, very detailed."

BETTING ESSENTIALS - BJ says - "Working my way through it. It is a helluva book, very detailed." 

 

Warren Block's Daily Report - Thursday, 29 January 2026

  • BETTING ESSENTIALS - Extract from the Wagering Essentials Chapter - The Contrarians
  • Matrix day-by-day results for Thursday and Friday racing
  • Wizard Ratings, Raceday, Matrix, and Selectives Results

 

BETTING ESSENTIALS - Extract from the Wagering Essentials Chapter - The Contrarians

  Whilst most professionals are conservative and consciously avoid excessively risky betting situations, there are some that will act in a contrary manner, on occasions. This is especially true when it comes to the exotics.

Because they believe there is an increased likelihood that these situations will produce results that pay excessive dividends they seek out opportunities that most professionals avoid, playing in large fields that contain poorly or moderately performed runners,

  The races that come under this category are maidens, benchmark handicaps up to BM58, and other low class restricted races.

  These contrarians still look for suitably qualified runners to include in their chances, and it is the type of race that differs most from usual practice. They also strictly control their bet structure and wagering.

  To succeed in this form of exotics wagering requires a deep understanding of the race types on which the wagers are made.

  The following is one example of the type of knowledge required to even attempt to follow in the footsteps of the contrarians.

   For example, backing a top-rated runner against first time starters in a maiden class race is generally a relatively low risk wager. A Wizard analysis of five seasons showed first-time starters in maidens won between 9% and 10% of the time, depending on the age classification of the race. That may be considered an acceptable risk to a contrarian.

  However, if a first-time starter in a maiden happens to be the race favourite it wins between 37% and 40% of the time, again depending on the age classification of the race. The degree of risk is therefore greater when wagering against this race favourite than there is where all horses have revealed race form and have been rated accordingly. Avoiding races with this scenario is one situation where the contrarian will most likely err on the side of caution and not proceed.

 

Matrix day-by-day results for Thursday and Friday racing

The tables show the results for the past eight weeks for the day on which racing occurred. So, today being Thursday, this Matrix DOW (Day of Week) report covers the past eight Thursday and Friday results. The day-after results are included so that they are available on race-eve, rather than only on race morning.

(The daily Matrix report aims to assist subscribers contain the number of bets to manageable proportions and improve the strike rate. The report is posted to our website between 10:30am and 10:45am each day with an update at 12 noon.)

 

Wizard Ratings, Raceday, Matrix, and Selectives results

We publish these full results daily so that subscribers can see the results of the Wizard's ratings options, and Report-content, and thereby formulate a selecting and betting strategy that suits them individually. The Wizard ratings should not be seen as "tips", rather as objective assessments that can be used to inform one's own judgement as to the relative chances of the runners in a race.

The full day-by-day results for Wizard (Wrat) top 4 rated runners, the Raceday Qualifier, and the Matrix (MaxR) 100 pointer, the MaxR top-two, the Matrix W1+MaxR100 qualifier, and the Matrix W1+*EO+MaxR100 qualifier. Also included are the overall results for last week and the last four weeks. The 2023-2024 column shows the WRat results for the full 2023-2024 racing season. This results summary is colour coded so that it is easier for readers to track the relative performance of the Top Rated (blue) and Top-Two Rated (green) ratings options on a daily, and longer term, basis. The best overall qualifier (yellow) is also highlighted.

The following table shows this week's results of alternative options with respect to possible Matrix Selectives combinations, as well as weekly summaries. These combinations are accessible via the Wizard MATRIX report which is posted to our website between 10:30am and 10:45am each day.

(Key: The first of the two columns for each Selective combination shows number of qualifying races and the second column shows the strike rate. Headings: RWM is Raceday,Watch,Magic,  RWM 2/3 means two or three qualifying, Rday is Raceday report qualifier , Magic is Magic report qualifier, R/M is Raceday and Magic, WR1 is Wrat 100, MR1 is MaxR 100.)

The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by WRat, WMod, WHcp, and WExpk and was the qualifier in the Wizard Raceday Report. (Note: The Wrat [W] winner results report on both the top rated and top-two rated winners.) The Raceday Report winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there were two qualifiers in a race.

Header: WMHER = WRat (W), WMod (M), WHcp (H), WExpk (E), Raceday (R).

For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results

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The Betting Essentials Book on Horse Racing by Warren Block

Wizard

The Wizard is an online formguide available every day from this website. It provides form and ratings for all Australian and New Zealand meetings covered by Tabcorp.

The formguide is supplied as downloadable and printable PDF files. Buying the Wizard also gives you access to the Wizard rewards program, featuring the Wizard archive and the Wizard Systems.

You also have access to the Wizard Race Fields, incredibly detailed form history and statistical content live on our site (which is also optimised for mobiles)

   29/01/2026 : ALBANY(s)
DOOMBEN(s)
PAKENHAM(s)
ROCKHAMPTON(s)
SCONE(s)
   30/01/2026 : BATHURST
CANTERBURY
CRANBOURNE
DALBY
LAUNCESTON
TAREE
TE RAPA
   31/01/2026 : ASCOT
BUNDABERG(nr)
CAULFIELD
DARWIN(nr)
EAGLE FARM
ELLERSLIE(nr)
ESPERANCE(nr)
IPSWICH(nr)
KYNETON(nr)
MORPHETTVILLE
NEWCASTLE(nr)
ROSEHILL
SAPPHIRE COAST(nr)
TAMWORTH(nr)
TRENTHAM(nr)
Meetings being covered by the Wizard
(s) indicates that scratchings have been processed.
(nr) indicates early fields and form without any ratings.

Superform

For decades, Superform has been Australia's premier ratings, results, form analysis and race handicapping service.

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