The Betting Essentials Book on Horse Racing by Warren Block

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Betting Essentials - Extract - Form - Chapter 4, pp43-45

BETTING ESSENTIALS - RA says: "As a disciple of Don (Scott) I found your analysis breathtakingly detailed."

                                                       >  BETTING ESSENTIALS - Extract below <

Warren Block's Daily Report - Thursday, 12 February 2026

  • Betting Essentials - Extract - Form - Chapter 4, pp43-45
  • Matrix day-by-day results for Thursday and Friday racing
  • Wizard Ratings, Raceday, Matrix, and Selectives Results

 

Betting Essentials - Extract - Form - Chapter 4, pp43-45

It would be fair to say that the vast majority of horse race bettors think about the form of a horse before deciding on a wager.

What constitutes form?

For some, it is just the finish positions that appear alongside the horses name in the formguide. Others take a broader view and seek out information associated with those form figures.

For the purposes of this chapter certain key components of a horses race history are considered relevant to meaningful form analysis.

The key form-related factors to be examined are:

-        finish position at last start

-        beaten margin at last start

-        winning margin at last start

-        days since last win

-        runs from a spell

-        days since last run

-        distance change from last start

-        Field Strength (class) change from last start

 Also:

-        An analysis of the results when two factors are combined: For example, finish position last start and its impact on performance over different distance ranges.

Form - The statistics

An appreciation of how the factors listed above have impacted overall on horse performance is a key to better analysing any individual runner.

Whilst every horse must be assessed individually, it is helpful to have an overall view of how certain factors have played out historically. There are patterns and trends.

The form-factor statistics in this chapter cover:

              -        Nation-wide stats for Metro, Provincial, and Country racing

              -        The main body stats (M,P,C) cover four full seasons of racing

              -        The stats are for horses that started at 10/1 or shorter

              -        Four age groups are analysed: 2yo, 3yo, 4-6yo, 7yo+

              -        The 2024-2025 Top 25 trainers (5 per state) over four years

              -        One Top 25 trainers stats profile highlighted

              -        Category average based on specific subset (factor, location, age)

              -        Out-performers highlighted by * : (Impact value of 1.2 or greater)

The inclusion of the Top 25, Highlighted Trainer, and averages help put into perspective the nation-wide Metro, Provincial, and country figures.

The percentage represents the number of starters in that category that won.

An example: The number of days since last win.

A screenshot of a graphAI-generated content may be incorrect.

A graph of different colored columnsAI-generated content may be incorrect.

  Some takeaways from these 3yo stats across the three locations:

-        Provincial and Country 3yos outperformed when backed up in 1-7 days

-        Provincial and Country qualifiers out-scored Metro overall

-        Metro 3yos outperformed with 8-14 days back-up from last win

-        Backing up from a win within 28 days yielded better results

-        Bjorn Baker had insufficient 1-7 qualifiers (na) for analysis

-        Bjorn Baker clearly outperformed in three categories

-        Confirmation of Provincial and Country 3yos running to form

 

Matrix day-by-day results for Thursday and Friday racing

The tables show the results for the past eight weeks for the day on which racing occurred. So, today being Thursday, this Matrix DOW (Day of Week) report covers the past eight Thursday and Friday results. The day-after results are included so that they are available on race-eve, rather than only on race morning.

(The daily Matrix report aims to assist subscribers contain the number of bets to manageable proportions and improve the strike rate. The report is posted to our website between 10:30am and 10:45am each day with an update at 12 noon.)

 

Wizard Ratings, Raceday, Matrix, and Selectives results

We publish these full results daily so that subscribers can see the results of the Wizard's ratings options, and Report-content, and thereby formulate a selecting and betting strategy that suits them individually. The Wizard ratings should not be seen as "tips", rather as objective assessments that can be used to inform one's own judgement as to the relative chances of the runners in a race.

The full day-by-day results for Wizard (Wrat) top 4 rated runners, the Raceday Qualifier, and the Matrix (MaxR) 100 pointer, the MaxR top-two, the Matrix W1+MaxR100 qualifier, and the Matrix W1+*EO+MaxR100 qualifier. Also included are the overall results for last week and the last four weeks. The 2023-2024 column shows the WRat results for the full 2023-2024 racing season. This results summary is colour coded so that it is easier for readers to track the relative performance of the Top Rated (blue) and Top-Two Rated (green) ratings options on a daily, and longer term, basis. The best overall qualifier (yellow) is also highlighted.

The following table shows this week's results of alternative options with respect to possible Matrix Selectives combinations, as well as weekly summaries. These combinations are accessible via the Wizard MATRIX report which is posted to our website between 10:30am and 10:45am each day.

(Key: The first of the two columns for each Selective combination shows number of qualifying races and the second column shows the strike rate. Headings: RWM is Raceday,Watch,Magic,  RWM 2/3 means two or three qualifying, Rday is Raceday report qualifier , Magic is Magic report qualifier, R/M is Raceday and Magic, WR1 is Wrat 100, MR1 is MaxR 100.)

The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by WRat, WMod, WHcp, and WExpk and was the qualifier in the Wizard Raceday Report. (Note: The Wrat [W] winner results report on both the top rated and top-two rated winners.) The Raceday Report winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there were two qualifiers in a race.

Header: WMHER = WRat (W), WMod (M), WHcp (H), WExpk (E), Raceday (R).

For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results

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The Betting Essentials Book on Horse Racing by Warren Block

Wizard

The Wizard is an online formguide available every day from this website. It provides form and ratings for all Australian and New Zealand meetings covered by Tabcorp.

The formguide is supplied as downloadable and printable PDF files. Buying the Wizard also gives you access to the Wizard rewards program, featuring the Wizard archive and the Wizard Systems.

You also have access to the Wizard Race Fields, incredibly detailed form history and statistical content live on our site (which is also optimised for mobiles)

   12/02/2026 : BUNBURY(s)
GOULBURN(s)
IPSWICH(s)
PAKENHAM(s)
   13/02/2026 : CANTERBURY
CLARE
CRANBOURNE
ESPERANCE
KILMORE
MACKAY
NEW PLYMOUTH
SUNSHINE COAST
TAMWORTH
TAREE
   14/02/2026 : ASCOT PARK(nr)
BALLARAT(nr)
DARWIN(nr)
EAGLE FARM
FLEMINGTON
GOLD COAST(nr)
MATAMATA(nr)
MORPHETTVILLE PARKS
NEWCASTLE(nr)
ORANGE(nr)
PINJARRA
RANDWICK
TOOWOOMBA(nr)
Meetings being covered by the Wizard
(s) indicates that scratchings have been processed.
(nr) indicates early fields and form without any ratings.

Superform

For decades, Superform has been Australia's premier ratings, results, form analysis and race handicapping service.

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