Warren Block's Daily Report - Thursday, 10 July 2025
- Wizard In-Running a special insight - carrying pace advantage to victory
- Matrix day-by-day results for Thursday and Friday racing
- Wizard Freebie - Wizard Essentials Report
- Wizard Ratings, Raceday, Matrix, and Selectives Results
Wizard In-Running a special insight - carrying pace advantage to victory
The American handicapper is a speed oriented specialist; Australian handicappers, not so much. That said, there is much to like about a horse that is expected to be a "sole leader". The Americans assert that the sole leader/frontrunner can set the early pace, conserve energy, avoid speed duels, and dictate more comfortable fractions, thereby increasing its chances of maintaining the lead throughout the race. Well, even a firm believer in relative weight handicapping can agree with that.
There are numerous speed maps now available to Australian punters. The emphasis is on early speed; where the runners will settle.
Whilst I agree that early (positioning) speed is important, I believe the ability of the horse to carry its pace advantage to the home turn is just as important, and arguably even more important. That is why the Wizard's In-Running has two pace points, early and home turn.
In terms of race analysis, when incorporating pace as a significant component it is best to concentrate on those races where there is sufficient revealed form. For this reason, I would suggest not applying it to maiden races, most 2yo and many 3yo races, where there is insufficient in-running history available. Also, merely being a likely sole leader is not sufficient in itself to indicate a possible winner; the horse needs to be rated to win the race.
Yesterday, after scratchings, in the qualifying races there were three Wizard WRat 100 pointers that In-Running and Essentials flagged as having this pace advantage. Enuff Pills at Ipswich, and Lets Talk and Lucky I Am at Pinjarra. Two of them won.
Here is the In-Running screen for Enuff Pills.
Being the only runner with four green dots, Enuff Pills is identifiable as being the likely pacemaker through to the home turn.
Now, looking at the Wizard Essentials print for additional factors that might favour Enuff Pills in this race.
Here, in the Pace column, its home-turn positioning is flagged F1, the only horse so tagged. We can see that Enuff Pills is the WRat 100 pointer, as well as being top rated on Wmod. You can also see just how well she has run over this very short distance range (which seems to be her speciality) and at Ipswich. Also positive is the record of Adin Thompson who is to ride. Also highly graded on the Wizard Filter and Negatives analysis.
An examination of her Wizard form confirms these facts:
Enuff Pills won at $7.50. Of the other two "sole leaders", Lets Talk ran 3rd, and Lucky I Am won.
Interestingly, Enuff Pills was outpaced on settling but was sharing the lead on the home turn and just won in a bobbing finish. Both Lets Talk and Lucky I Am ran as predicted, settling in the lead and holding that lead by the home turn.
Matrix day-by-day results for Thursday and Friday racing
The tables show the results for the past eight weeks for the day on which racing occurred. So, today being Thursday, this Matrix DOW (Day of Week) report covers the past eight Thursday and Friday results. The day-after results are included so that they are available on race-eve, rather than only on race morning.
(The daily Matrix report aims to assist subscribers contain the number of bets to manageable proportions and improve the strike rate. The report is posted to our website between 10:30am and 10:45am each day with an update at 12 noon.)
Wizard Freebie - Wizard Essentials report
The Wizard publishes on this page one of its Wizard reports or special features, either completely or a part thereof. Today it is a Wizard Essentials Wrat 4 report. The full report and all other reports for all meetings for today are available now for subscribers.
The Wizard Essentials report is a very useful resource, for key data that race handicappers need is at their fingertips. Included are the Wizard's four ratings assessments, each focusing on different time-proven ways of rating runners, and other key (likely) performance indicators, some of which are unique to the Wizard. For example, the Filter and Negatives assessments, the in-running (pace) insights, and form pattern stats (RFS).
In addition to this Essentials WRat4 report there is also an Essentials Full-Field version available. Here is one race from that report for this meeting:
Click here for an explanation of the Wizard Essentials report.
Wizard Ratings, Raceday, Matrix, and Selectives results
We publish these full results daily so that subscribers can see the results of the Wizard's ratings options, and Report-content, and thereby formulate a selecting and betting strategy that suits them individually. The Wizard ratings should not be seen as "tips", rather as objective assessments that can be used to inform one's own judgement as to the relative chances of the runners in a race.
The full day-by-day results for Wizard (Wrat) top 4 rated runners, the Raceday Qualifier, and the Matrix (MaxR) 100 pointer, the MaxR top-two, the Matrix *EOam+MaxR100 qualifier, the Matrix W1+MaxR100 qualifier, and the Matrix W1+*EO+MaxR100 qualifier. Also included are the overall results for last week and the last four weeks. The 2023-2024 column shows the WRat results for the full 2023-2024 racing season. This results summary is colour coded so that it is easier for readers to track the relative performance of the Top Rated (blue) and Top-Two Rated (green) ratings options on a daily, and longer term, basis. The best overall qualifier (yellow) is also highlighted.
The following table shows this week's results of alternative options with respect to possible Matrix Selectives combinations, as well as weekly summaries. These combinations are accessible via the Wizard MATRIX report which is posted to our website between 10:30am and 10:45am each day.
(Key: The first of the two columns for each Selective combination shows number of qualifying races and the second column shows the strike rate. Headings: RWM is Raceday,Watch,Magic, RWM 2/3 means two or three qualifying, Rday is Raceday report qualifier , Magic is Magic report qualifier, R/M is Raceday and Magic, WR1 is Wrat 100, MR1 is MaxR 100.)
The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by WRat, WMod, WHcp, and WExpk and was the qualifier in the Wizard Raceday Report. (Note: The Wrat [W] winner results report on both the top rated and top-two rated winners.) The Raceday Report winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there were two qualifiers in a race.
Header: WMHER = WRat (W), WMod (M), WHcp (H), WExpk (E), Raceday (R).
For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results