Wizard Daily Report Saturday, 26 October 2024
- Use Magic to evaluate a meeting in less than 15 minutes and get a 36% strike rate!
- Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Raceday Report for Queensland non-metro meetings
- Wizard Ratings and Raceday Results, Friday October 25
Use Magic to evaluate a meeting in less than 15 minutes and get a 36% strike rate!
Reposted with additional commentary
The Wizard Magic Report offers a range of analytical options that we started to explore in the article posted yesterday and reposted below.
The first option discussed centred on market movements, ratings, and form patterns. Scanning these, and highlighting the relevant combinations obviously takes less than the 15 minutes referred to in the article heading. The remaining time is taken up executing the other options, and finding other qualifying runners, and these will be discussed in coming days.
One of the main aims of Magic is to make it possible for a Wizard subscriber to quickly locate the day's better bets, well before the usual start of the day's racing, and bet early if necessary.
As I have noted in previous Wizard Daily Report articles, there are excellent betting opportunities at provincial and country meetings, both mid-week and on the weekend. To my mind supporting a 3/1 winner at Grafton, Northam, or Rockhampton, is just as rewarding as backing a 3/1 winner at Randwick or Flemington.
To this end, over the next month or so, we will discuss how subscribers can also use the Wizard Raceday and Essentials reports to quickly process the information contained in the reports and improve strike rates across the board.
Using Magic to evaluate a meeting
Using Magic it is possible to analyse a full meeting in less than 15 minutes.
In less than 15 minutes you
- Have ratings for all runners on current form and previous best form
- Have assessed every runner on positive and negative factors
- Identified proven trainer specialties
- Identified horse/trainer switches to previously successful circumstances
- Monitored key over-night and morning market movements
With this information at your fingertips and by combining elements of Magic you can improve the Wizard ratings strike rate from 25-27% to 36% and higher!
Wizard Magic contains six main elements:
| Magic | Eodds | % change | Ratings | Cycle | Switch | JT Filt Neg |
| Out-performers | Early odds | Early odds change | W - Wrat | F - first-up form | Switch: non-win to win | JT - Jockey/Trainer |
| Non-firmers | Morning odds | Min-morning change | M - WMod | P - 2up+ runs from spell | D = Distance | Filter score 7+ Rate 1 |
| Market firmers | | | H - Whcp | | T = Track | No Negatives |
| | | | W - Wexpk | | S = Surface | |
| | | | | | A = Age | |
This article concentrates on combining two or three of these elements. (Note: Later articles will deal with other combinations.)
First, combining just two elements: market movement and ratings:
The two elements focused on are:
- The % odds change: highlighting horses that have firmed overnight or on race-morning
- Ratings: Specifically, the 1 horse in the W rating column (the Wizard 100 pointer)
o First, highlight horses that are rated 1 in the W ratings column
o Next, highlight horses that are 3.0+ in either the %chg1 or %chg2 columns
That's it. The horses with both columns highlighted are the qualifiers for the meeting.
The result achieved by combining these two elements since Magic was first released to Wizard subscribers on September 14 is:
Wins 144 Starts 437 Win strike rate 32.9%
This compares to the win strike rate of Wrat 100 alone since September 14:
Wins 482 Starts 1,797 Win strike rate 26.8%
For comparison purposes the win strike rate of Wrat 100 pointer over the past three years is:
Wins 14,488 Starts 55,246 Win strike rate 26.2%
Now, being more selective and combining three elements: market movement, ratings, and form cycle.
The three elements are:
- The % odds change, highlighting horses that have firmed overnight or on race-morning
- Ratings Specifically, the 1 horse in the W rating column (the Wizard 100 pointer)
- Form Cycle P and/or F for horses proven at this stage of a preparation
o First, highlight horses that are rated 1 in the W ratings column
o Next, highlight horses that are 3.0+ in either the %chg1 or %chg2 columns
o Then, highlight any runner tagged P or F in the Cycle column
That's it. The horses with three columns highlighted are the qualifiers for the meeting.
The results achieved by combining these three elements since Magic was first released to Wizard subscribers on September 14 are:
Wins 28 Starts 77 Win strike rate 36.4%
This compares to the win strike rate of Wrat 100 alone since September 14:
Wins 482 Starts 1,797 Win strike rate 26.8%
Again, for comparison purposes the win strike rate of Wrat 100 pointer over the past three years is:
Wins 14,488 Starts 55,246 Win strike rate 26.2%
Bear in mind, that this is only one possible option using Magic.
There are others to be discussed later that will add to the number of qualifying bets and winners over any time period.
As you can see, it is possible, using Wizard Magic, to comprehensively assess a full meeting in a matter of minutes, not hours, and maximize a win strike rate in the process.
Its Magic !
Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Raceday Report for Queensland non-metro meetings
Each day The Wizard will publish on this page one of its Wizard Plus reports or special features, either completely or a part thereof. Today the Wizard Freebie is the Wizard Raceday Report for Queensland non-metro meetings. All Wizard reports for all meetings for today are available now for subscribers.
Click here for a full explanation of the Raceday Report.
Wizard Ratings Results for Friday, October 25
The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk and was the qualifier in the Wizard Raceday Report. (Note: The Wrat [W] winner results report on both the top rated and top-two rated winners.) The Raceday Report winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there were two qualifiers in a race.
| Fri 25.10.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Top rated | Top 2 rated |
| | SOT | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER |
| GAWLER | s5g4 | - - 2 1. - | 1 1 2 - 1 | - - - - - | 1 1 1. - 1 | 3 3 - - - | - - 3. 3 0 | 2 3 1. - - | - - 3. - - | 2 2 2. 1. 2 | 3 2 4. 1. 0 |
| INNISFAIL | g4g3 | - 2. - - - | 1 1 1 2 1 | 3 3 - 3 - | 2 2. 1 1 - | 3 3 - - - | 3 - 1 - - | 1 1 1 - 1 | - - 3 - - | 2 2 4 1 2 | 3 4. 4 2 0 |
| LAUNCESTON | s5g4 | 2 2 - - - | - - - - - | 2 3 - - - | - 3. 2 2 - | - - - 3 - | 2 2 - - - | - 2 3. 3. - | 2 3 1 1 1 | 0 0 1 1 1 | 4 3 2 2 0 |
| MOONEE VALLEY | g4 | 3 2 3 1 1 | - 2 2 1 1 | 3 - 1 - - | - - - - - | - - - - 0 | 3 2 2. 3. 0 | - - - - - | - - - - 0 | 0 0 1 2 2 | 0 3 3. 2 0 |
| MORNINGTON | s5g4 | 1 1 1 1 1 | - - 3 - - | 3 2 2 1 - | 1 1 2 3 1 | - - - - - | 1 - - 3 - | - 2 3 2. - | 2 1. 1 2 - | 3 3. 2 2 2 | 4 5. 4 4. 0 |
| QUEANBEYAN | g4 | - - - - - | - - - - - | 3 2 1. 3. - | 3 3 1 3. - | - - - 1 - | - - - - - | 3 3 - 2 - | 2 - - 1 - | 0 0 2. 2 - | 1 1 2. 3 0 |
| SCONE | g4 | 3 3 1. - 1 | - - - - - | 3 2 1. - 1 | 3 2 - 3 - | - - - - - | 3 1 2 2 1 | 3 - 1 - - | 3 - 1 3. - | 0 1 4. 0 3 | 0 3 5. 1 0 |
| SUNSHINE COAST | s6s5 | 1 1 3 1 1 | - - - - - | - - - - 0 | 1 - - - - | - 2 3. 1 1 | - 2 2 - - | 1 1 - - 1 | | 3 2 0 2 3 | 3 4 1 2 0 |
| | | | | | | | | | | Wrat 10 63 | Wrat 18 63 |
| | | | | | | | | | | 15.90% | 28.60% |
| | | | | | | | | | | Rday 15 58 | Rday no qual |
| | | | | | | | | | | 25.90% | |
Header: WMHER = Wrat (W), Wmod (M), Whcp (H), Wexpk (E), Raceday (R).