Wizard Daily Report Sunday, 8 September 2024

• Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Plus Jockeys & Essentials
• Wizard Ratings and Raceday Results for Saturday, September 7

Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Plus Jockeys & Essentials

Each day The Wizard will publish on this page one of its Wizard Plus reports or special features, either completely or a part thereof, and today the Wizard Freebie is looking at the various buttons on the Race Fields screen that enables a user to drill down into details about the jockeys riding in a race, quickly and easily.

The race chosen for display purposes is Race 7 at Kalgoorlie, the Coolgardie Cup. Also posted is the Wizard Plus Essentials for this race.

First, clicking the JOCKEYS button we have the full list of jockeys in this race, showing their overall record in the last 12 months, their record on runners starting at 10/1 or less, and on the race favourite. (Clicking on the [i] icon shows the last 20 rides under the relevant criteria.)

Next, clicking on the FORM button we see where the jockey finished in his/her last 50 rides. This data is colour coded to highlight metropolitan, provincial, and country form. The number of wins and win percentage is shown at the end of the data line. (Note: Clicking on [Highlight Wins] shows only the winning results.)

Next, the GROUP STATS button shows how the jockey has performed in Group races.

Next, the TRACK/SOT button shows the history of each rider under various conditions.

Finally, clicking the TRAIN/HORSE/NON MET/GRP1 button reveals the record of the jockey with the relevant trainer in this race, on the horse to be ridden, on the category of the meeting, and in Group 1 races.

There is much more information about each jockey to be found elsewhere in other reports, but these buttons offer a quick and easy way to check on important details.

Wizard Ratings and Raceday Results for Saturday, September 7

The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk and in the Wizard Plus Raceday Report. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in Wizard Plus. (Note: The Wrat winners include the top rated and second top-rated winners.) The Raceday reported winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there are two qualifiers in a race.

Header: WMHER =  Wrat (W), Wmod (M), Whcp (H), Wexpk (E), Raceday qualifier (R).

For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results

Wizard Daily Report Sunday, 8 September 2024

• Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Plus Jockeys & Essentials
• Wizard Ratings and Raceday Results for Saturday, September 7

Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Plus Jockeys & Essentials

Each day The Wizard will publish on this page one of its Wizard Plus reports or special features, either completely or a part thereof, and today the Wizard Freebie is looking at the various buttons on the Race Fields screen that enables a user to drill down into details about the jockeys riding in a race, quickly and easily.

The race chosen for display purposes is Race 7 at Kalgoorlie, the Coolgardie Cup. Also posted is the Wizard Plus Essentials for this race.

First, clicking the JOCKEYS button we have the full list of jockeys in this race, showing their overall record in the last 12 months, their record on runners starting at 10/1 or less, and on the race favourite. (Clicking on the [i] icon shows the last 20 rides under the relevant criteria.)

Next, clicking on the FORM button we see where the jockey finished in his/her last 50 rides. This data is colour coded to highlight metropolitan, provincial, and country form. The number of wins and win percentage is shown at the end of the data line. (Note: Clicking on [Highlight Wins] shows only the winning results.)

Next, the GROUP STATS button shows how the jockey has performed in Group races.

Next, the TRACK/SOT button shows the history of each rider under various conditions.

Finally, clicking the TRAIN/HORSE/NON MET/GRP1 button reveals the record of the jockey with the relevant trainer in this race, on the horse to be ridden, on the category of the meeting, and in Group 1 races.

There is much more information about each jockey to be found elsewhere in other reports, but these buttons offer a quick and easy way to check on important details.

Wizard Ratings and Raceday Results for Saturday, September 7

The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk and in the Wizard Plus Raceday Report. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in Wizard Plus. (Note: The Wrat winners include the top rated and second top-rated winners.) The Raceday reported winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there are two qualifiers in a race.

Header: WMHER =  Wrat (W), Wmod (M), Whcp (H), Wexpk (E), Raceday qualifier (R).

For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results

Wizard Daily Report Tuesday, 3 September 2024

• Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Plus Plus Panel Newcastle
• Wizard Ratings and Raceday Results for Monday, September 2

Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Plus Plus Panel Newcastle

Each day The Wizard will publish on this page one of its Wizard Plus reports or special features, either completely or a part thereof, and today the Wizard Freebies are screen prints of the Wizard Plus Plus Panels for Newcastle.

Note: An explanation of the various columns follows the Plus Panels screen prints, below.

Wizard Plus Plus Panel Legend

Tab: Racebook, Tab number.

Horse Name: Name of the runner.

A/S: Age (years) and sex (colt, gelding, horse, filly, mare).

Wrat: 100 pointer and rank for the Wrat rating which is based on relative weights and adjusted for 8 form factors.

Wmod: 100 pointer and rank for the Wmod Rating which is based on a regression analysis of 12 form factors.

Whcp: 100 pointer and rank for the Whcp rating, which is an almost pure relative weight assessment with minimal input from other factors.

Wexpk: 100 pointer and rank for the Wexpk rating, which is an assessesment of the horses best (weight for age adjusted) rating from its previous preparation as well as its current preparation.

Wjktr: The qualifying runner/s after an analysis of the jockey/trainer combinations. When a combinations level of performance exceeds our jockey/trainer benchmark the runner will have an asterisk placed in the Wjktr column

Wfilt: The qualifying runner/s after an analysis of key positives and negatives facing each runner in the race. The number shows the number of positives vs negatives and the horses ranking.

Wneg: The qualifying runner/s after an analysis of negative factors facing each runner; the number indicates the number of negatives.

AOdds: Wizard assessed odds based on the predicted finish order and margins.

Rstyle: Possible in-running style and position; F (frontrunner), O (on-pace), M (midfield), B (backmarker)

Trainer: The name of the trainer or training partnership.

Wizard Ratings and Raceday Results for Monday, September 2

The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk and in the Wizard Plus Raceday Report. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in Wizard Plus. (Note: The Wrat winners include the top rated and second top-rated winners.) The Raceday reported winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there are two qualifiers in a race.

 Header: w m h e =  Wrat (w), Wmod (m), Whcp (h), Wexpk (e)

For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results

Wizard Daily Report Wednesday, 4 September 2024

• Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Plus Essentials Report - Warwick Farm
• Wizard Ratings and Raceday Results for week ending September 1

Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Plus Essentials Report - Warwick Farm

Each day The Wizard will publish on this page one of its Wizard Plus reports or special features, either completely or a part thereof, and today the Wizard Freebie is the full Wizard Plus Essentials report for Warwick Farm.

Wizard Essentials Legend:

Tab: Racebook, Tab number.

Horse Name: Name of the runner.

Age/Sex: Age (years) and sex (colt, gelding, horse, filly, mare).

Form: Finish position at last four race starts (oldest to latest), x indicates 60 days spell.

RFS: Number of runs since a spell.

              Examples: 3 Px1o = 3rd run from spell, o placed (2nd or 3rd) third up last prep, 1st when 3rd up two preps back, x     unplaced when third up three preps back.

              Examples: 1 Fox1 = having first run from spell, 1st when first-up last prep, x unplaced when first-up up two preps back, o placed (2nd or 3rd) when first-up three preps back.

EOdds: Early pre-post market based on an average of odds offered by wagering operators, this market is adjusted to 120%.

Wrat: Wizard rating which is based on relative weights and adjusted for 8 form factors.

WMod: Rating is based on a regression analysis of 12 form factors.

WHcp: An almost pure relative weight assessment with minimal input from other factors.

WExpk: Assesses the horse on its best (weight for age adjusted) rating from its previous preparation as well as its current preparation.

AOdds: Wizard assessed odds based on the predicted finish order and margins.

CarW%: The number of career wins and the overall win percentage.

WPS LY: The wins, (minor) placings, and starts in the last 12 months

TCDW: Track, Class, Distance, Wet; Capital letter indicates winner, lower case has placed.

BP: Barrier Position.

Pace: Possible in-running style and position; F (frontrunner), O (on-pace), M (midfield), B (backmarker)

FldStr: Field Strength figure measures (in kilograms) the difference between the quality of the field against which the horse raced last start and will confront in the forthcoming race.

Course: The wins minor placings starts record of each horse at todays racetrack.

Dist: The wins minor placings starts record of each horse at this distance, or over a distance within 10% of the distance of the forthcoming race.

Crse+Dis: The wins minor placings starts record of the horse at this course and the distance, or within 10% of the distance of the forthcoming race.

Filter: Analysis of key positives and negatives facing each runner in the race. The number shows the number of positives vs negatives and the horses ranking.

Neg: An analysis of negative factors facing each runner; the number indicates the number of negatives.

Jockey: Name of the jockey engaged to ride the horse; apprentice claim shown, (*) asterisk indicates past winning jockey on the horse replacing a non-winning jockey.

Joc/Hor: The record of the jockey when riding this horse.

Trainer: The name of the trainer or training partnership.

J 12m: The jockeys win percentage over the past 12 months when riding the race favourite.

T 12m: The trainers win percentage over the past 12 months when training the race favourite.

J-T 12m: How the jockey/trainer combination has performed with the race favourite over the past 12 months.

Wizard Ratings and Raceday Results for Tuesday, September 3

The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk and in the Wizard Plus Raceday Report. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in Wizard Plus. (Note: The Wrat winners include the top rated and second top-rated winners.) The Raceday reported winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there are two qualifiers in a race.

Header: w m h e =  Wrat (w), Wmod (m), Whcp (h), Wexpk (e)

For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results

Wizard Daily Report Thursday, 5 September 2024

• Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Plus Performance Charts
• Wizard Ratings and Raceday Results for Wednesday, September 4

Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Plus Performance Charts

Each day The Wizard will publish on this page one of its Wizard Plus reports or special features, either completely or a part thereof, and today the Wizard Freebie is a selection of Wizard Plus Performance Charts. One chart is reproduced for each meeting, with an explanation following the 5 races. (Note: As this report focuses on the winning record of a horse, this chart is more relevant to those races with a reasonable amount of [revealed] winning form in runner's form history.)

COFFS HARBOUR

MCKAY

 NORTHAM

WAGGA

CRANBOURNE

Explanation of the Wizard Plus Performance Chart

Wizard Plus provides a snapshot overview of the superior (and inferior) performers in a race under a number of form factors using icons to highlight the best and worst performers.

The form factors highlighted, reading from left to right on the display, are:

• Overall strike rate (reflecting overall consistency)
• Distance range (including races at +/- 10% of this distance)
• Racetrack (the racecourse itself)
• Track and distance
• Jockey (record with the jockey engaged for this race)
• Runs from spell (record at this point in previous preparations)
• Rain affected tracks (includes soft and heavy going)

Three colours are used to reflect the level of past performance by each horse under these seven form factors and the success rate need to be included in this Performance display are:

• Green (minimum 33% win strike rate)
• Yellow (25% to 32% win strike rate)
• Red (less than 10% win strike rate)

Note: When you hover your cursor over an icon it will show you the actual win strike rate for the horse under that form factor.

(green) The 33% win rate was chosen to identify runners whose history to date under the form factor is as good as the win strike rate of race favourites overall.

(yellow) To lower the bar a little and show those horses that might not have reached the 33% level of performance a second benchmark has been included 25% to 32%. Historically, some 20% of races are won by the second favourite and so we have chosen to raise that bar and highlight those runners than have outperformed the second favourite benchmark of 20% and we have set a requirement of 25% - 32% to get a yellow jersey.

Note that for the green and yellow categories there is no minimum number of runs required a horse can qualify for inclusion with a record of 1 from 1 (green), or 8 from 24 (green), or 1 from 4 (yellow) or 6 from 24 (yellow). That changes when we consider the negative (red) category.

(red) If a horse has a win strike rate of less than 10%, and has 11 or more runs under that form factor, it will be highlighted using a red icon.

This means that horses with a form factor win record of between 10% and 24% will not have an icon in the Performance display. Essentially, they are given a neutral performance rating.

Again, the purpose of this snapshot Performance presentation is to quicky and easily highlight the superior and inferior runners in a race.

Finally, from this Performance screen you can quickly drill down further by clicking on the horses Form icon, on the left hand side of the race field.

Ratings and Raceday Results for Wednesday, September 4

The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk and in the Wizard Plus Raceday Report. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in Wizard Plus. (Note: The Wrat winners include the top rated and second top-rated winners.) The Raceday reported winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there are two qualifiers in a race.

Header: WMHER =  Wrat (W), Wmod (M), Whcp (H), Wexpk (E), Raceday qualifier (R).

For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results

Wizard Daily Report Friday, 6 September 2024

• Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Plus Essentials Wrat4 Report - Wyong
• Wizard Ratings and Raceday Results for Thursday, September 5

Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Plus Essentials Wrat4 Report - Wyong

Each day The Wizard will publish on this page one of its Wizard Plus reports or special features, either completely or a part thereof, and today the Wizard Freebie is the Wizard Plus Essentials Wrat4 Report.

The Essentials Wrat4 is a print that focuses on the top four Wrat runners, which facilitates a comparison of the data for the main chances in the race. Historically the top 4 Wrat runner have a combined win strike rate of nearly 70%. And with some judicious race elimination it is possible to improve that to better than 80%.

 Wizard Essentials Legend:

Tab: Racebook, Tab number.

Horse Name: Name of the runner.

Age/Sex: Age (years) and sex (colt, gelding, horse, filly, mare).

Form: Finish position at last four race starts (oldest to latest), x indicates 60 days spell.

RFS: Number of runs since a spell.

              Examples: 3 Px1o = 3rd run from spell, o placed (2nd or 3rd) third up last prep, 1st when 3rd up two preps back, x     unplaced when third up three preps back.

              Examples: 1 Fox1 = having first run from spell, 1st when first-up last prep, x unplaced when first-up up two preps back, o placed (2nd or 3rd) when first-up three preps back.

EOdds: Early pre-post market based on an average of odds offered by wagering operators, this market is adjusted to 120%.

Wrat: Wizard rating which is based on relative weights and adjusted for 8 form factors.

WMod: Rating is based on a regression analysis of 12 form factors.

WHcp: An almost pure relative weight assessment with minimal input from other factors.

WExpk: Assesses the horse on its best (weight for age adjusted) rating from its previous preparation as well as its current preparation.

AOdds: Wizard assessed odds based on the predicted finish order and margins.

CarW%: The number of career wins and the overall win percentage.

WPS LY: The wins, (minor) placings, and starts in the last 12 months

TCDW: Track, Class, Distance, Wet; Capital letter indicates winner, lower case has placed.

BP: Barrier Position.

Pace: Possible in-running style and position; F (frontrunner), O (on-pace), M (midfield), B (backmarker)

FldStr: Field Strength figure measures (in kilograms) the difference between the quality of the field against which the horse raced last start and will confront in the forthcoming race.

Course: The wins minor placings starts record of each horse at todays racetrack.

Dist: The wins minor placings starts record of each horse at this distance, or over a distance within 10% of the distance of the forthcoming race.

Crse+Dis: The wins minor placings starts record of the horse at this course and the distance, or within 10% of the distance of the forthcoming race.

Filter: Analysis of key positives and negatives facing each runner in the race. The number shows the number of positives vs negatives and the horses ranking.

Neg: An analysis of negative factors facing each runner; the number indicates the number of negatives.

Jockey: Name of the jockey engaged to ride the horse; apprentice claim shown, (*) asterisk indicates past winning jockey on the horse replacing a non-winning jockey.

Joc/Hor: The record of the jockey when riding this horse.

Trainer: The name of the trainer or training partnership.

J 12m: The jockeys win percentage over the past 12 months when riding the race favourite.

T 12m: The trainers win percentage over the past 12 months when training the race favourite.

J-T 12m: How the jockey/trainer combination has performed with the race favourite over the past 12 months.

Wizard Ratings and Raceday Results for Thursday, September 5

The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk and in the Wizard Plus Raceday Report. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in Wizard Plus. (Note: The Wrat winners include the top rated and second top-rated winners.) The Raceday reported winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there are two qualifiers in a race.

Header: WMHER =  Wrat (W), Wmod (M), Whcp (H), Wexpk (E), Raceday qualifier (R).

For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results

Wizard Daily Report Saturday, 7 September 2024

• Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Plus Race Field Buttons - Moonee Valley
• Wizard Ratings and Raceday Results for Friday, September 6

Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Plus Race Field Buttons - Moonee Valley

Each day The Wizard will publish on this page one of its Wizard Plus reports or special features, either completely or a part thereof, and today the Wizard Freebie is looking at the various buttons on the Race Fields screen that enables a user to drill down into form details, quickly and easily.

The race chosen for display purposes is Race 8 at Moonee Valley, the So You Think Stakes.

First, clicking the FIELD button we have the full field details.

Next, clicking on the RATINGS button we see core ratings and statistical data drawn from the Wizard Header.

Next, the PERFORMANCE button shows how a horse has performed under certain conditions. This button was discussed in detail last Thursday.

Next, the STATS button shows for each horse the key history stats going into the race.

Next, INRUNNING shows the historical (likely) running style of each horse and key impact value figures.

Next, the PLUS PANEL brings together the four Wizard ratings assessments for the top-rated runners and Wizard assessed odds for the full field.

Next, the Wizard SPEED MAP shows the likely positions after settling and nearing the home turn.

Next, the GROUP STATS button reveals the previous form of each runner in the Group races it has contested throughout its career.

Finally, the RFS STATS button reveals the form cycle history of each runner.

As can be seen, quick and easy. And very comprehensive.

Wizard Ratings and Raceday Results for Friday, September 6

The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk and in the Wizard Plus Raceday Report. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in Wizard Plus. (Note: The Wrat winners include the top rated and second top-rated winners.) The Raceday reported winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there are two qualifiers in a race.

 Header: WMHER =  Wrat (W), Wmod (M), Whcp (H), Wexpk (E), Raceday qualifier (R).

For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results