Wizard Daily Report - Friday, 15 November 2024
- Repost - Spring Carnival - Wizard reports help to maximize win strike rate
- Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Essentials Wrat4 Report for Canterbury
- Wizard Ratings and Raceday Results, Thursday, November 14
Spring Carnival - Wizard reports help to maximize win strike rate
It seems worthwhile as we are now in the final stage of the 2024 Spring Carnival period to re-look at the Wizard reports and their ratings options etc that have outperformed and are expected to do so in the coming off-season.
Over time, when introducing and commenting on the various Wizard reports, I have pointed out the metrics therein that should deliver optimum strike rates.
The tables below provide a summary of these various suggestions.
When assessing these results from the past two months of racing, bear in mind that the Wizard Wrat 100 pointer had a win strike rate of 26.5% during this period, smack in the middle of its expected range.
Starting with Raceday:
Like the Wrat 100 pointer, the Raceday qualifier selects only one runner in the race.
| Raceday Qualifier | 1st | 2nd/3rd | Runners | win% | 123 % |
| Overall | 795 | 919 | 2655 | 30.0% | 64.5% |
| Flagged ** | 269 | 268 | 784 | 34.3% | 68.0% |
| Flagged **** | 22 | 21 | 59 | 37.3% | 75.0% |
Without any supplementary rules the Raceday qualifiers have recorded a 30% win strike rate, better than the 26.5% of Wrat the 100 pointer.
Note that there is a significant improvement when we look at the performance of the Raceday Flagged runners, with the two-star (**) runners getting 34.3%, and four-star (****) finding 37.3% winners during the period under review.
Wizard Watch:
Wizard Watch is very demanding in the sense that not only does the runner need to be rated to win it also needs to be significantly supported in early betting on the race.
| Wizard Watch | 1st | 2nd/3rd | Runners | win% | 123 % |
| Overall | 421 | 451 | 1356 | 31.0% | 64.3% |
| Rated 100 on 4 of WMHE | 23 | 18 | 55 | 42.0% | 75.0% |
| Rated 100 on 3 of WMHE | 73 | 59 | 169 | 43.0% | 78.0% |
| Rated on 3 and Filter | 19 | 7 | 37 | 51.0% | 70.0% |
The Wizard Watch overall rate was 31%, a marginal improvement on the base Raceday qualifier, but when filters are applied there is a noticeable improvement. If the basic Watch qualifier is the 100 pointer on all four Wizard ratings options the strike rate improved to 42% during this spring. The Watch horses that rated 100 on three of the Wizard ratings actually did a little better at 43%, but I think the percentages would be reversed on the longer term.
The best performer this Spring was the Watch horse that rated 100 on at least three Wizard ratings and was also a filtered runner with a filter score of at least 7 and that being the best score in the race. These runners delivered a 51% win rate.
Wizard Magic:
Magic brings together a number of factors ratings, market action, form history, trainer specialities, and so on.
| Wizard Magic | 1st | 2nd/3rd | Runners | win% | 123 % |
| Wrat1, Firm, Cycle RFS | 27 | -- | 77 | 35.0% | -- |
| Wrat1, Firm, Filt/Neg | 77 | -- | 205 | 37.5% | -- |
Only recently introduced, Magic did very nicely over the past two months. As suggested recently, by concentrating on the Wrat 100 pointer when it is also identified as a firmer in overnight and/or early-morning markets, and has a qualifier in the Form Cycle (Runs From A Spell column), a very pleasing strike rate of 35% has been achieved since September 16. Those runners that were Wrat 100 pointers, firmers in overnight and early-morning markets, and also flagged in the Filter/Negatives column did even better, delivering 37.5%.
Wizard Wrat:
As noted earlier, the Wrat 100 pointer win rate for the past two months was 26.5%. The strike rate for the top two Wrat runners was 43% and for the top four was 70.5%. The new Wrat4-AOdds report is a very handy source if you want to concentrate on these runners.
| Wizard Wrat | 1st | 2nd/3rd | Races | win% | 123 % |
| Wrat 100 | 728 | -- | 2749 | 26.5% | -- |
| Wrat 1 and 2 rated | 1184 | -- | 2749 | 43.0% | -- |
| Wrat 1 to 4 rated | 1940 | -- | 2749 | 70.5% | -- |
Wizard Freebie - Wizard Essentials Wrat4 Report for Canterbury
Each day The Wizard will publish on this page one of its Wizard reports or special features, either completely or a part thereof. Today the Wizard Freebie is the Wizard Essentials Wrat4 Report for Canterbury. The full and abridged Wizard reports for all meetings for today are available now for subscribers.
Click here for an explanation of Wizard Essentials.
Wizard Ratings Results for Thursday, November 14
The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk and was the qualifier in the Wizard Raceday Report. (Note: The Wrat [W] winner results report on both the top rated and top-two rated winners.) The Raceday Report winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there were two qualifiers in a race.
| Thu 14.11.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Top rated | Top 2 rated |
| | SOT | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER |
| BALLARAT | g4 | 3 3 2 - - | 1 1 1 1 1 | - - - - - | 1 1 1 1 1 | - - 2 1. - | 1 1 2. - 1 | 1 1 2 2. 1 | 2 2 - - - | | 4 4 2 3. 4 | 5 5 6. 4. 0 |
| BUNBURY | g4 | - - - - - | - - - 1 - | 3 2 - 1. - | - - - - - | 2 2. 1 1 - | 1 2. 3. - 1 | 1 2 3. - 1 | | | 2 0 1 3. 2 | 3 4. 1 3. 0 |
| MACKAY | g4 | - - - - - | 1 1 1 - 1 | - - - 3. - | 2 - - - - | - - - - - | 1 1 1 1 1 | - 2 2. - - | 1 2 3. - 1 | - - - - - | 3 2 2 1 3 | 4 4 3. 1 0 |
| PORT MACQUARIE | s5g4 | 1 1 - - 1 | - - - 1. - | - - - - - | 1 1 2 - 1 | 2 3 3 - - | - 2 3 1 1 | - - - 1. - | | | 2 2 0 3. 3 | 3 3 1 3. 0 |
| QUIRINDI | g4 | 1 2 1 3 1 | - - - - - | 1 1 2 3. 1 | 2 3 1. - - | - 3 3 - - | 1 2 1 2 - | 2 1 - - - | | | 3 2 3. 0 2 | 5 4 4. 1 0 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | Wrat 14 38 | Wrat 20 38 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | 36.80% | 52.60% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | Rday 14 38 | Rday no qual |
| | | | | | | | | | | | 36.80% | |
Header: WMHER = Wrat (W), Wmod (M), Whcp (H), Wexpk (E), Raceday (R).