Wizard Daily Report and Research - Sunday, 26 November 2023.

• The Distance Factor - continued.
• Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. Enhanced.

Better betting - Specialise - Distance Factor

Today we continue a discussion of the distance ability of a horse, a key area for investigation in form analysis with a look at the different distance ranges.

The Main Distances

1000 metres:  Races run over these very short distances can be unreliable betting mediums. Quite often the class of the older horses engaged is more suited to the outside tracks than the metropolitan courses.

In addition, weight, the fundamental factor in our quantitative analysis plays a less significant role over these very short courses. The longer the journey, the greater the impact of the handicap weight on the horse and the more reliable will be our quantitative predictions. Other factors tend to make these short races even less attractive as betting propositions.

For example, the fields are often large and interference is common as riders scramble for an in-running position. A check in such a short race can eliminates a horse's winning chance.

Also, a number of natural front runners could contest the same race. An otherwise sound selection could easily lose the race as a result of pressure from other front runners. In addition, is not uncommon to find several horses resuming from a spell contesting one of these races and if no reliable barrier trial form is available fitness assessment can be clouded.

However, there are some occasions when 1000m events can be reliable betting options. If, for example, it is a field of not more than (say) 12 runners, with proven short course performers and no preponderance of front runners then it may provide a suitable betting medium.

An examination of racing records will show that there are some horses that even have difficulty in staying a 1000m. These horses lack stamina and would be better suited over 900m on country or provincial tracks.

The 1000m specialist is generally easily recognizable from the formguide. Its performance history will record successes at 1000m, but when it contests the longer sprints its formguide will show that it "wilts" in the last 100m and is unable to win over the more testing 1200m distance in a truly run race.

What you may also find is that some gallopers who are essentially 1000m horses may be able to run 1200m againt weaker provincial or country class yet are unable to run past 1000m in the city.

Three year old gallopers often perform well in these short races against the older horses for their early speed has not been dissipated through over-racing and the stamina that often accompanies increasing age is not so essential.

1200 metres:  This is the most common of the sprint distances. Naturally it provides a more searching test for the racehorse than does the 1000m sprint.

Over the distance of 1200m, weight plays a greater part in determining the final outcome of the race and we can have more confidence in the relevance of our quantitative analysis.

The 1200m tends to be the distance over which major Group 1 sprints are conducted, for all age groups. There are also significant Group 1 races at 1000m and over distances between 1300m and 1400m, but they tend to be the exceptions for the shorter course sprinters.

1400 metres:  Most horses capable of scoring over 1200m can handle a sprint over 1400m, particularly on a less testing course.

However, some runners find that a truly run 1400m race is beyond their powers of endurance. This galloper will quite often run places at 1400m but will fail to outstay the eventual winner over that last 100 or 200 metres.

Of course, some horses are specialists at 1400m and find 1200m short of their best. These gallopers are usually strongly built types who like the speed to be on in a race all the way. Their greatest asset is the ability to keep on going when their rivals are getting weary.

1600 metres:  This is the most testing of the sprint distances. Here real stamina, as well as speed, is demanded of the horse. Many horses capable of winning at 1200m find a truly run 1600m race quite beyond their distance ability.

Some horses are specialist "milers". They invariably run their best races at this distance. As this type of horse matures it is often capable of performing successfully over middle distances.

The 1600m is an exacting test when the race is truly run. That is why it is not uncommon to see a proven 2000m horse prevail in the major 1600m Group races, such as the Epsom and Doncaster.

2000 metres: The 2000m route is the most common middle distance race. In middle distance races the successful runner requires stamina, endurance, fitness and speed. The plodding type of stayer is less likely to prevail in a 2000m race than in a 2400m race. Several key Group 1 races for 3yo gallopers are run over this trip.

2400 metres: At distances of 2400m and beyond the horse must possess abundant stamina and powers of endurance and be in solid race-winning condition. This becomes even more important as the horse is asked to carry higher weights over these testing distances. This is the distance over which the 3yo classic races (Derby, Oaks) are run, though it is noted that some are run at 2500m because of track configuration. 

Jockeys also play an important part in determining the winner of these staying events, with a good judge of pace and tactics a big advantage to a horse. Whilst you will find 2000m horses who are capable of winning at 2400m given the right conditions, you will find that "true" 2400m horse is less likely to win at 2000m at any time other than early in a campaign when they are still relatively fresh.

Melbourne top 20 in 2022-2023 Stats for Distance Ranges

Today, looking at the performance of the top 20 trainers on Melbourne metropolitan tracks in the last season across seven distance ranges, from the sprinter to the stayer. These stats cover the past 10 years for all runners in the distance range with a starting price of 10/1 or less.

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. Enhanced.

Today the Wizard Trainers Notebook re-examine trainers ranked 1 to 20 on the South Australian metropolitan tracks in the 2022-2023 racing season.

What is different about this listing is that I have identified those form factors that not only have an impact value on 1.3 but also show a win strike rate of 27% or more and a profit on turnover of 10% or more. This is obviously a more significant level of performance.

As before, I have broken down the overall stats into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform. Also, I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise.

Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.

Because the data is drawn from the Wizards national database, the form factors will be the same for trainers when they appear in the top trainer list in more than one state.

In the following listing those areas in which the trainer had a 1.3 impact value, and a win strike rate of 27% or better, and a positive return on investment of 10% more are highlighted in red. 

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

                                     Wizard - Trainer's Notebook - Trainers ranked 1 to 20 on the Adelaide 2022-2023 metropolitan premiership table.

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Monday, 27 November 2023.

• The Distance Factor - continued.
• Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. Enhanced.

Better betting - Specialise - Distance Factor

Today we continue a discussion of the distance ability of a horse, a key area for investigation in form analysis with a look at the different distance ranges.

General Comments on Sprint Races

Because, among other things, sprint races are usually more truly run than the longer races, form reversals are less common in the shorter races. They tend to be a good betting medium.

The running styles of sprinters can vary. Some possess brilliant speed and are able to quickly reach the lead and, providing they are not seriously challenged by another horse in running and can handle the distance, are capable of maintaining their lead to the wire. These are frontrunners.

Then we have the on pace horse which races close to the lead and quickly sprints to the front in the home stretch. This type of runner is normally a safer conveyance for it is not subject to a stamina-sapping challenge like the front runner or runs the same chance of interference in the straight as the off-pace closer. Also, its finishing run does not have to be so delicately timed. 

Finally we have the off-pace closers and backmarkers. This sprinter normally races back in the field and relies on a sharp (but often limited) finishing run to overhaul its speedier rivals. Here, having a good jockey is an advantage, for the finishing run needs to be timed precisely and ensuring a clear run at the leaders. It is important to note that a horse racing in this manner will not necessarily be suited by a longer distance. It is quite likely that the shorter sprint distance is as far as it likes to travel. Although it wins its races by this strong finishing burst it does not have sufficient stamina to score over a longer trip. 

When analysing the past performances of a horse, determine the running style employed when successful in a similar type of race. Now, examine its failures at different sprint distances. Can its failure(s) be attributed to the adoption of an unsuitable running style? 

General Comments on Distance Races

The way in which a distance race is run plays a major part in the final outcome. 

The true stayer prefers a fast pace and a truly run race to give its best. If the pace is very slow in the early stages and the race develops into a sprint home the genuine stayer that gets back in its races can be left with too much ground to make up on the leaders that have sprinted away. When a race is run at a farsical pace the form is worthless. Ignore the performances when assessing future prospects in your quantitative analysis. 

Pre-race Analysis

The purpose of this analysis is to determine whether the horse is capable of winning over the distance of the forthcoming race.

With the stress on winning, it follows that we are searching for those horses that have proven their distance ability by either winning a race at this distance or have recorded (a) performance(s) that strongly suggest the ability to win over the distance of the forthcoming event. 

If the horse has won at this distance, or within +/- 10% of the distance, this should be sufficient for it to pass the "distance ability test". 

The only exception would be where it had recorded a lone win at this distance (or at a distance within 10%) but had a number of losses at the same distance when other factors were apparently in its favour. In this case, beware! That lone win was possibly due to exceptional circumstances (for example, when the race is run an an unusually fast or slow pace, or the field was made up of horses that were also racing beyond their distance range, or there was severe interference to the horses really capable of scoring at that distance, etc.) Check the formguide for comments and search your racing records for clues. 

There will be a more detailed discussion of this aspect of form analysis tomorrow.

Brisbane top 20 in 2022-2023 Stats for Distance Ranges

Today, looking at the performance of the top 20 trainers on Brisbane metropolitan tracks in the last season across seven distance ranges, from the sprinter to the stayer. These stats cover the past 10 years for all runners in the distance range with a starting price of 10/1 or less.

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. Enhanced.

Today the Wizard Trainers Notebook re-examine trainers ranked 1 to 20 on the Western Australian metropolitan tracks in the 2022-2023 racing season.

What is different about this listing is that I have identified those form factors that not only have an impact value on 1.3 but also show a win strike rate of 27% or more and a profit on turnover of 10% or more. This is obviously a more significant level of performance.

As before, I have broken down the overall stats into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform. Also, I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise.

Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.

Because the data is drawn from the Wizards national database, the form factors will be the same for trainers when they appear in the top trainer list in more than one state.

In the following listing those areas in which the trainer had a 1.3 impact value, and a win strike rate of 27% or better, and a positive return on investment of 10% more are highlighted in red. 

Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

                                           Wizard - Trainer's Notebook - Trainers ranked 1 to 20 on the Western Australia 2022-2023 metropolitan premiership table.

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Tuesday, 28 November 2023.

• The Distance Factor - Failed and first time.
• Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. Enhanced.

Better betting - Specialise - Distance - Failed and First time

Today we continue a discussion of the distance ability of a horse, a key area for investigation in form analysis.

Failed at the Distance

Let us assume that the horse has previously failed at the distance of the forthcoming race (or within +/-10% of the distance).

 * First, how many failures have been recorded at this distance?

* Second, did its finishing effort indicate winning potential at this distance? 

 One unexplained failure, with no successes in the distance range, can usually be forgiven. However, if such a horse has failed more than once when obviously well fancied and otherwise suited by the conditions of the race then it can be considered "suspect" at the distance and it can be penalized to reflect the fact. Such a galloper should not be seen as a strong first selection until it shows it can handle the distance satisfactorily. 

 Of course, if there is a good explanation for its failure (for example, blocked in the straight when attempting a run or missed the start) then it can be evaluated under the following section (First Time at Distance). 

If a horse has failed at the distance (with no obvious excuse) closely examine its finishing run. 

* Was it tiring and losing ground during the last 200m? (We are assuming that the horse was fully fit). 

If the answer is "Yes"... WAIT for evidence that it CAN cope with the distance. 

* Was it fully extended: whilst not making up any real ground on the leaders it was not losing ground. That is, it ran an even race in the straight.

If the answer is "Yes" - Can be supported but watched closely for further confirmation that this journey is within its distance range. 

* Was it running on strongly and overhauling the leaders which were not tiring? 

If the answer is "Yes" - Can be supported. The experience should assist at the next attempt. 

The problem horse in this category is the young improving galloper who may have failed at a specific distance when last in work, but who is now attempting that distance again this time up. With increased maturity and experience it may have no difficulty in coping with the distance on this occasion. If you are confronted with this situation, you may be best evaluating the given horse under the following section (First Time at Distance). 

First time at the Distance

When this situation arises, and it frequently occurs, we are forced to analyse the horse's past performances in order to determine whether its distance ability is likely to encompass the distance of the forthcoming race. Mind you, we are not alone in having to make these judgements. At times not even those closely associated with a horse will know whether it can handle a new distance either.

The following are some of the points to consider. (Note: These can also be applied to the situation where the galloper has registered a failure at the distance). 

* Does the horses' breeding indicate that it will run the distance? 

* How does it finish at the end of its races closest in distance to the forthcoming event? To answer this question you should use race videos.

- Was it fully extended with nothing in reserve and being overhauled by closers? 

- Was it tiring and shortening stride at the end of its race. (Remember: We are assuming that the horse is fully fit and that improved racing condition won't help it see out the extra distance on this occasion.) 

If the answer to either of the above is "Yes", then the horse can be considered suspect at the longer distance, particularly if at the longer distance it is to meet the same class of horse and must carry the same or higher weight. 

In this case the horse can be downgraded or even eliminated from your final list of possibilities or appropriately penalised when handicapping the field. It is prudent to wait until it has proven that it can handle the extra distance before backing it as a strong first selection.

- Was it running on strongly, holding the opposition at bay... perhaps increasing its advantage over the last 100 metres? 

- Was it finishing strongly at the end of the race, making up ground on the leaders which were not weakening and perhaps running on strongly after reaching the winning post? 

If the answer to either of the above is "Yes", then the horse has indicated that it should cope with the extra distance. Once you have satisfied yourself that it is capable of running out the journey it can become a qualified selection. However, if any real doubt remains either wait or penalise the galloper in question so that it does not become one of your strong selections for the race. 

Tomorrow, distance switches.

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

Adelaide top 20 in 2022-2023 Stats for Distance Ranges

Today, looking at the performance of the top 20 trainers on the Adelaide metropolitan track in the last season, across seven distance ranges, from the sprinter to the stayer. These stats cover the past 10 years for all runners in the distance range with a starting price of 10/1 or less.

Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. enhanced.

Today the Wizard Trainers Notebook reports on trainers ranked 1 to 10 on the Tasmanian metropolitan tracks in the 2022-2023 racing season.

In this listing I have identified those form factors that not only have an impact value on 1.3 but also show a win strike rate of 27% or more and a profit on turnover of 10% or more. This is obviously a more significant level of performance.

As before, I have broken down the overall stats into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform. Also, I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise.

Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.

Because the data is drawn from the Wizards national database, the form factors will be the same for trainers when they appear in the top trainer list in more than one state.

In the following listing those areas in which the trainer had a 1.3 impact value, and a win strike rate of 27% or better, and a positive return on investment of 10% more are highlighted in red. 

Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

                               Wizard - Trainer's Notebook - Trainers ranked 1 to 10 on the Tasmanian 2022-2023 metropolitan premiership table.

Wizard Daily Report and Research  - Wednesday, 29 November 2023.

• The Distance Factor - Distance switches.

Better betting - Specialise - Distance Switches

Most horses race within a limited range of distances (once they have reached peak fitness) during any single campaign. If a horse is mixing its distances (and its form) this calls for some investigation.

A sudden switch in distances can be a signal to the careful bettor. A horse may experience some difficulty in adapting itself to the new pace and/or physical demands of a race over a significantly different distance.

Three possible scenarios are:

ONE

A horse, after resuming from a spell has had 2 races - one over 1200m and the other over 1400m. Seven days after its last start (1400m) it is in a 2000m race and pitted against race-fit horses capable of scoring at that distance.

*  On a light preparation this horse faces a difficult assignment.

Three main factors indicate possible defeat under these circumstances:

-  The sudden upward switch of 600m within 7 days.

-  Its preparation would not appear to be programmed to bring it to middle-distance condition without further racing and/trials.

-  The 7 days between races was insufficient time to work it into race winning condition for an event over 2000m.

TWO

Another horse has had seven starts since returning from a spell. Its recent races have been over 1600m. Now, 10 days after its last start, this horse is racing against similar company in a 1200m race and is facing fresh, class-capable horses.

*  This horse is likely to be defeated.

This horse has been trained (and raced) in a manner to fit it for a searching 1600m race. When coming back 400 metres in distance against the same class of horse it will find it difficult to match strides with its more brilliant and fresher rivals.

(Note: If the horse had a let-up between these starts, this analysis might not apply. The horse could have been freshened up and sprint well. Also note that natural front runners are not as disadvantaged by a sudden switch to a shorter distance.

THREE

A third horse has now had four runs since resuming from a spell. Its last two starts have been at 1600m, and it has run on strongly at the finish. Now, fourteen days after its last run this horse has been stepped up to 2000m.

*  This horse has been conditioned for the switch to 2000m.

This horse is being trained to cope with a middle distance this campaign, and has been conditioned to handle a distance jump of 400m. Its strong finishing efforts over 1600m indicate that 2000m should be suitable. If other factors regarding this race are suitable, it can be included with some confidence as a possible selection.

Distance changes the on-track evidence

Just how well do trainers perform when they are stepping up a horse in distance, or bringing it back to a shorter trip?

The table below shows the record over the past five years. This record is examined in three ways:

• All runs at all odds
• Only those runs when the horse has a starting price of 10/1 or less.
• Only those runs where the horse was the race favourite.

The table shows the record for:

• All trainers in Australia
• Only the top 100 (2022-2023) trainers across the Metropolitan premierships (20 per state).
• Two top 20 trainers for comparison purposes.
  • Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott from Sydney
  • Ciaron Maher and David Eustace from Melbourne

(Note: Chris Waller, the top trainer in Sydney, was not included as his stats are impacted by the multiple runners he has in many races, thereby reducing his potential strike rate.)

To remove the problem of an apparent drop back in distance when a horse is resuming, I have included only those runs which are the 2nd or later run from a spell.

There is a wealth of information to be gained from this table.

Most significantly, in the context of the current discussion, there is no dramatic difference between the results when stepping up or bringing back a runner up to 300m in distance, for all-trainers and the top-100.

There is, however, a reduction in performance levels when dropped back more than 300m, as compared to stepping up more than 300m, for both the all-trainers and the top-100 categories in the all odds and <=10/1 categories.

When both all-trainers and top-100 are on the level playing field of race favourite, there is little variation across the board.

Now it is important to bear in mind that the above analysis is a global approach to this one aspect of form analysis. Individual trainers will differ in performance, with some producing excellent results when stepping up or bringing back. This aspect, and the opportunities it provides, will be addressed in later articles.

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

Wizard Daily Report and Research  - Thursday, 30 November 2023.

• The Distance Factor - Trainers Notebook.

Better betting - Specialise - Distance - Trainers Notebook

Following on from yesterdays analysis of how trainers have performed when switching distances by various amounts, there is another source of information we now have that shines additional light on this form factor.

The Wizard Trainers Notebook details the record of the top-100 mainland metropolitan trainers from the 2022-2023 season and one of the variables reported on is any over-performance (impact value) when switching distances.

The following shows the results for the three age groups studied:

          2yo                                            3yo                                          4yo and older

-100 to +100    = 4                   -300 to -101     = 12                  -500 to -301      =   2

+101 to +300   = 4                   -100 to +100    =   4                  -300 to -101      = 11

                                                   +101 to +300   = 16                 -100 to +100     =   6

                                                   +301 to +500   = 12                 +101 to +300    =   7

                                                                                                      +301 to +500    = 14

                                                                                                       Over 500           =   1

So, for 2yo gallopers, there were 4 trainers who outperformed when the distance remained basically the same; that is, within 100m of the previous race. There were 4 trainers who outperformed  when stepping up more than 100m but no more than 300m.

With 3yo gallopers, 12 of the trainers outperformed when the horse was dropped back in distance by at least 101m but not more than 300m. Similarly, 16 of the top-100 outperformed when stepping up the horse between 101m and 300m.

And so on.

From this analysis it can be seen that there is a greater likelihood of over-performance if the 3yo and 4yo+ are stepped up in distance, but for these trainers, bringing the horse back in distance is definitely not the negative that some claim it to be.

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Saturday, 25 November 2023.

• The Distance Factor
• Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook Enhanced.

Better betting - Specialise - Distance Factor

Today we begin a discussion of the distance ability of a horse, a key area for investigation in form analysis.

First up, a general discussion of this distance factor.

The Distance Factor

Most horses produce their best ratings within a specific distance range. Generally, we can classify  gallopers into four categories with respect to their ability to successfully compete over difference distances. 

The Sprinter

This galloper specializes in the shorter races. Sprint races are contested over distances ranging from 900m or 1000m up to 1500m or 1600 metres. Although it is not uncommon to find horses capable of winning races throughout this range of distances, particularily as they get older, it is equally likely that you will find specialists within this distance range. 

For example, some speedy gallopers possess little stamina find it difficult to win beyond 1000m. Similarly, stronger horses which are capable of registering good performances over 1200m or 1400m are found wanting at the end of a searching 1600m race. 

You will also find within this general category of sprinters, those gallopers with sufficient stamina to run a solid 1500m or 1600m but lacking the brilliance to successfully match strides with the flying 1200m specialist. 

The Middle Distance Horse

This galloper registers its best performances when contesting races run over 1800m to 2200m. This horse can show to advantage in a 1600m race when it is still fresh and sharp in the early stage of its campaign, but it generally reserves its best performances for those middle distances mentioned above. 

With increasing age the middle distance horse can often increase its distance range and take on the stayers in 2400m events. 

The Stayer

The true stayer relishes the longer distances. It will normally produce its best form when racing over distances from 2400m to 3200m. However, if it possesses the ability to keep in touch with the leaders in a quickly run race over 2000m and is then able to produce a strong finishing burst, it is often capable of scoring over this shorter distance. If, on the other hand it is one paced, it will more often than not perform indifferently at these shorter distances. 

The Versatile Horse

This galloper is capable of scoring over distances ranging from (say) 1200m to (say) 2400m. Normally these horses possess more than a touch of class and it is uncommon to find a moderate performer which can successfully contest widely varying distances during a single campaign. 

The importance of a horse racing over its "correct distance" cannot be over emphasized. 

Within the categories listed above, some horses have a "pet distance" where their ratings exceed those returned over any other trip. 

Within the "Sprinters" category you will find pure speed horses who cannot win beyond 1000m. There are also brilliant sprinters which lack the stamina to compete successfully beyond 1200m. Then there are strong sprinters who race best at 1400m and, of course, "milers" whose pet distance is 1600m. 

One of the first steps in pre-race analysis must be to examine the ability of each of the runners to win over the distance of the forthcoming race. Huge sums are wagered (and lost) on horses racing over unsuitable distances.

Sydney top 20 in 2022-2023 Stats for Distance Ranges

Whilst discussing the distance factor it is interesting to look at the performance of the top 20 trainers in Sydney in the last season across seven distance ranges, from the sprinter to the stayer. These stats cover the past 10 years for all runners in the distance range with a starting price of 10/1 or less.

Sydney top 20 trainers in 2022-2023 - Distance results profile

There are some good performances in this data, and some of it coming from the smaller stables.

Again, I think Chris Waller is bedevilled by his multiple runners in a race. Of those lower in the premiership rankings, the results of Michael Fredman, Nathan Doyle, and Matthew Dunn are worth noting.

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook enhanced.

Today the Wizard Trainers Notebook re-examine trainers ranked 1 to 20 on the Brisbane metropolitan tracks in the 2022-2023 racing season.

What is different about this listing is that I have identified those form factors that not only have an impact value on 1.3 but also show a win strike rate of 27% or more and a profit on turnover of 10% or more. This is obviously a more significant level of performance.

As before, I have broken down the overall stats into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform. Also, I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise.

Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.

Because the data is drawn from the Wizards national database, the form factors will be the same for trainers when they appear in the top trainer list in more than one state.

In the following listing those areas in which the trainer had a 1.3 impact value, and a win strike rate of 27% or better, and a positive return on investment of 10% more are highlighted in red. 

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

                                 Wizard - Trainer's Notebook - Trainers ranked 1 to 20 in the Brisbane 2022-2023 metropolitan premiership table.