Wizard Daily Report and Research - Wednesday, 10 January 2024.
Barrier position - Results analysis
In this Daily Report, we look at the performance of the Starting Price (SP) Favourite and its success rate when it starts from one of four 'barrier bands'.
The 'barrier bands' used here are:
- Barriers 1 to 3
- Barriers 4 to 7
- Barriers 8 to 12
- Barriers 13 and wider
The results cover two full racing seasons, 2021-2022 and 2022-2023.
The analysis reports on the success rate of the Starting Price Favourite in terms of:
Location - this analysis looks at this success rate:
- Overall all locations
- Metropolitan racing
- Provincial racing
- Country racing
Age - the data is further broken down into three age groups:
- 2yo gallopers
- 3yo gallopers
- 4yo+ gallopers
Note: I appreciate that the 'significance' of a barrier position can vary from track to track, even from starting point to starting point at a particular track. Indeed, factors such as track configuration, the state of the track, the distribution of running styles in a race field, weight carried, etc, can all impact on the significance of a barrier draw. However, I feel it has been worthwhile looking at this factor, taking a broader view, and investigating these four 'barrier bands'.
Table SP favourite performance and Barrier Position.
| 2yo | 1-3 | Win | win% | 4-7 | Win | win% | 8-12 | Win | win% | 13+ | Win | win% |
| Overall | 619 | 263 | 42.5% | 632 | 244 | 38.6% | 253 | 83 | 32.8% | *14 | 7 | 50.0% |
| Metropolitan | 231 | 88 | 38.1% | 228 | 87 | 38.2% | *97 | 30 | 30.9% | *8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| Provincial | 228 | 93 | 40.8% | 251 | 93 | 37.1% | 102 | 35 | 34.3% | *3 | 2 | 66.7% |
| Country | 160 | 82 | 51.3% | 153 | 64 | 41.8% | *54 | 18 | 33.3% | *3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 3yo | 1-3 | Win | win% | 4-7 | Win | win% | 8-12 | Win | win% | 13+ | Win | win% |
| Overall | 3729 | 1451 | 38.9% | 4111 | 1534 | 37.3% | 2137 | 759 | 35.5% | 109 | 44 | 40.4% |
| Metropolitan | 795 | 277 | 34.8% | 906 | 303 | 33.4% | 434 | 139 | 32.0% | *41 | 16 | 39.0% |
| Provincial | 1603 | 633 | 39.5% | 1800 | 683 | 37.9% | 906 | 311 | 34.3% | *31 | 12 | 38.7% |
| Country | 1331 | 541 | 40.6% | 1405 | 548 | 39.0% | 797 | 309 | 38.8% | *37 | 16 | 43.2% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 4yo+ | 1-3 | Win | win% | 4-7 | Win | win% | 8-12 | Win | win% | 13+ | Win | win% |
| Overall | 6740 | 2349 | 34.9% | 7288 | 2439 | 33.5% | 3469 | 1028 | 29.6% | 261 | 65 | 24.9% |
| Metropolitan | 1278 | 443 | 34.7% | 1489 | 485 | 32.6% | 699 | 211 | 30.2% | *90 | 20 | 22.2% |
| Provincial | 2017 | 696 | 34.5% | 2227 | 740 | 33.2% | 1110 | 316 | 28.5% | *75 | 21 | 28.0% |
| Country | 3445 | 1210 | 35.1% | 3572 | 1214 | 34.0% | 1660 | 501 | 30.2% | *96 | 24 | 25.0% |
* - insufficient runners for meaningful result
na - insufficient runners for meaningful result
Some take-aways from this analysis:
- For 4yo+ gallopers, the success rate across all locations declines as the barrier position worsens.
- For 4yo's, little difference between metropolitan and non-metropolitan strike rates.
- For 3yo's, win strikes rates show a modest decline as barriers worsen; not really significant.
- For 3yo's the provincial and country percentages are again higher than the metropolitan.
- Win strike rates are higher for 3yo gallopers compared to those of 4yo+.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com