Wizard Daily Report and Research - Thursday, 11 January 2024.
NEW - Wizard Plus enhancement - Wizard Performance Chart
Wizard Plus users, don't forget to check out the new direct link to our individual horse Performance Charts.
When viewing a race field, as well showing the current icons to access a horse's form details and adding a note, there is now a Graph icon that will take you straight to the horse's Wizard Plus Performance Graph.
Not only is there a graphical representation of the horse's form history, clearly showing form cycles, but by hovering over the relevant marker you get access to extensive details concerning that run.
Average prizemoney - Results analysis
In this Daily Report, we look at the performance of the Starting Price (SP) Favourite and its success rate when ranked 1 to 4 on average prizemoney earned.
The are four groupings:
- 1st on average prizemoney (1st APM)
- 2nd on average prizemoney (2nd APM)
- 3rd on average prizemoney (3rd APM)
- 4th on average prizemoney (4th APM)
The results cover two full racing seasons, 2021-2022 and 2022-2023.
The analysis reports on the success rate of the Starting Price Favourite in terms of:
Location - this analysis looks at this success rate:
- Overall all locations
- Metropolitan racing
- Provincial racing
- Country racing
Age - the data is further broken down into three age groups:
- 2yo gallopers
- 3yo gallopers
- 4yo+ gallopers
Table - SP favourite performance and Average Prizemoney.
| 2yo | 1st APM | Win | win% | 2nd APM | Win | win% | 3rd APM | Win | win% | 4th APM | Win | win% |
| Overall | 481 | 202 | 42.0% | 251 | 109 | 43.4% | 135 | 60 | 44.4% | *65 | 24 | 36.9% |
| Metropolitan | 200 | 82 | 41.0% | *91 | 36 | 39.6% | *56 | 22 | 39.3% | *26 | 5 | 19.2% |
| Provincial | 164 | 69 | 42.1% | *94 | 44 | 46.8% | *44 | 20 | 45.5% | *22 | 11 | 50.0% |
| Country | 117 | 51 | 43.6% | *66 | 29 | 43.9% | *35 | 18 | 51.4% | *17 | 8 | 47.0% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 3yo | 1st APM | Win | win% | 2nd APM | Win | win% | 3rd APM | Win | win% | 4th APM | Win | win% |
| Overall | 4244 | 1720 | 40.5% | 2190 | 854 | 39.0% | 1295 | 466 | 36.0% | 840 | 271 | 32.3% |
| Metropolitan | 893 | 326 | 36.5% | 519 | 184 | 35.5% | 324 | 111 | 34.3% | 191 | 51 | 26.7% |
| Provincial | 1836 | 730 | 39.8% | 916 | 361 | 39.4% | 555 | 201 | 36.2% | 369 | 123 | 33.3% |
| Country | 1515 | 664 | 43.8% | 755 | 309 | 40.9% | 416 | 154 | 37.0% | 280 | 97 | 34.6% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 4yo+ | 1st APM | Win | win% | 2nd APM | Win | win% | 3rd APM | Win | win% | 4th APM | Win | win% |
| Overall | 5551 | 2093 | 37.7% | 4292 | 1490 | 34.7% | 3362 | 1106 | 32.9% | 2640 | 878 | 33.3% |
| Metropolitan | 1120 | 406 | 36.3% | 859 | 282 | 32.8% | 710 | 221 | 31.1% | 572 | 186 | 32.5% |
| Provincial | 1819 | 698 | 38.4% | 1362 | 465 | 34.1% | 1076 | 356 | 33.1% | 867 | 294 | 33.9% |
| Country | 2612 | 989 | 37.9% | 2071 | 743 | 35.9% | 1576 | 529 | 33.6% | 1201 | 398 | 33.1% |
* - insufficient runners for meaningful result
na - insufficient runners for meaningful result
Some take-aways from this analysis:
- For 4yo+ gallopers, the success rate initially declines but steadies at 3rd and 4th ranked.
- For 4yo's, the metropolitan strike rate is lower than non-metropolitan rates.
- For 3yo's, win strikes rates show definite decline at 3rd and 4th ranked, compared to 1st and 2nd.
- For 3yo's the provincial and country percentages are again higher than the metropolitan.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com