Average prizemoney - Results analysis

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Thursday, 11 January 2024.

NEW - Wizard Plus enhancement - Wizard Performance Chart

Wizard Plus users, don't forget to check out the new direct link to our individual horse Performance Charts.

When viewing a race field, as well showing the current icons to access a horse's form details and adding a note, there is now a Graph icon that will take you straight to the horse's Wizard Plus Performance Graph.

Not only is there a graphical representation of the horse's form history, clearly showing form cycles, but by hovering over the relevant marker you get access to extensive details concerning that run.

Average prizemoney - Results analysis

In this Daily Report, we look at the performance of the Starting Price (SP) Favourite and its success rate when ranked 1 to 4 on average prizemoney earned.

The are four groupings:

  • 1st on average prizemoney (1st APM)
  • 2nd on average prizemoney (2nd APM)
  • 3rd on average prizemoney (3rd APM)
  • 4th on average prizemoney (4th APM)

The results cover two full racing seasons, 2021-2022 and 2022-2023.

The analysis reports on the success rate of the Starting Price Favourite in terms of:

Location - this analysis looks at this success rate:

  • Overall all locations
  • Metropolitan racing
  • Provincial racing
  • Country racing

Age - the data is further broken down into three age groups:

  • 2yo gallopers
  • 3yo gallopers
  • 4yo+ gallopers

                                                                       Table - SP favourite performance and Average Prizemoney.

2yo1st APMWinwin%2nd APMWinwin%3rd APMWinwin%4th APMWinwin%
Overall48120242.0%25110943.4%1356044.4%*652436.9%
Metropolitan2008241.0%*913639.6%*562239.3%*26519.2%
Provincial1646942.1%*944446.8%*442045.5%*221150.0%
Country1175143.6%*662943.9%*351851.4%*17847.0%
             
3yo1st APMWinwin%2nd APMWinwin%3rd APMWinwin%4th APMWinwin%
Overall4244172040.5%219085439.0%129546636.0%84027132.3%
Metropolitan89332636.5%51918435.5%32411134.3%1915126.7%
Provincial183673039.8%91636139.4%55520136.2%36912333.3%
Country151566443.8%75530940.9%41615437.0%2809734.6%
             
4yo+1st APMWinwin%2nd APMWinwin%3rd APMWinwin%4th APMWinwin%
Overall5551209337.7%4292149034.7%3362110632.9%264087833.3%
Metropolitan112040636.3%85928232.8%71022131.1%57218632.5%
Provincial181969838.4%136246534.1%107635633.1%86729433.9%
Country261298937.9%207174335.9%157652933.6%120139833.1%

* - insufficient runners for meaningful result

na - insufficient runners for meaningful result

Some take-aways from this analysis:

  • For 4yo+ gallopers, the success rate initially declines but steadies at 3rd and 4th ranked.
  • For 4yo's, the metropolitan strike rate is lower than non-metropolitan rates.
  • For 3yo's, win strikes rates show definite decline at 3rd and 4th ranked, compared to 1st and 2nd.
  • For 3yo's the provincial and country percentages are again higher than the metropolitan.

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com



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