Winning margin last start - SP favourite lead-in race.

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Sunday, 14 January 2024.

Winning margin last start - SP favourite lead-in race.

In a recent Daily Report (9 Jan 2024), we looked at the performance of the Starting Price (SP) Favourite and its success rate when coming off a particular last-start beaten margin. In this report we again look at the relevance of the lead-in race to the SP favourite's performance, here in terms of the last-start winning margin.

For this report the last-start winning margin ranges are:

  • 0.1 -   3.0 lengths
  • 3.1 -   5.0 lengths
  • 5.1 - 10.0 lengths
  • 10.1+ lengths

The results cover two full racing seasons, 2021-2022 and 2022-2023.

The analysis reports on the success rate of the Starting Price Favourite in terms of:

Location - this analysis looks at this success rate:

  • Overall all locations
  • Metropolitan racing
  • Provincial racing
  • Country racing

Age - the data is further broken down into three age groups:

  • 2yo gallopers
  • 3yo gallopers
  • 4yo+ gallopers

(Note: A further condition has been applied in this analysis - the horse must have raced within the last 1 to 59 days; that is, we are excluding horses resuming from a spell.)

                                                                    Table - SP favourite performance and Last Start Winning Margin

2yo0.1-3.0Winwin%3.1-5.0Winwin%5.1-10Winwin%10.1+Winwin%
Overall2169443.5%*301653.3%*10660.0%*100.0%
Metropolitan1426143.0%*19842.1%*6466.7%*100.0%
Provincial*361438.9%*7571.4%*100.0%na  
Country*381950.0%*4375.0%*3266.7%na  
             
3yo0.1-3.0Winwin%3.1-5.0Winwin%5.1-10Winwin%10.1+Winwin%
Overall154454935.6%28510336.1%*924144.6%*6233.3%
Metropolitan60918630.5%1134136.3%*301240.0%000.0%
Provincial51419838.5%1083431.5%*321650.0%*3266.7%
Country42116539.2%*642843.8%*301343.3%*300.0%
             
4yo+0.1-3.0Winwin%3.1-5.0Winwin%5.1-10Winwin%10.1+Winwin%
Overall3739127534.1%60626343.4%2067837.9%*20840.0%
Metropolitan123640632.8%1687544.6%*411331.7%*3266.7%
Provincial101333933.5%1717443.3%*632031.7%*11436.4%
Country149053035.6%26711442.7%1024544.4%*6233.3%

* - insufficient runners for meaningful result

na - insufficient runners for meaningful result

Some take-aways from this analysis:

  • For 4yo+ gallopers, noticeable difference between 0.1-3.0 and 3.1-5.0, but the numbers are relatively small.
  • Mixed results from this analysis, and the smaller numbers are a contributing factor.
  • The pattern of results in the 0.1-3.0 category seem plausible, others categories less so,

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com



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