Wizard Daily Report and Research - Sunday, 14 January 2024.
Winning margin last start - SP favourite lead-in race.
In a recent Daily Report (9 Jan 2024), we looked at the performance of the Starting Price (SP) Favourite and its success rate when coming off a particular last-start beaten margin. In this report we again look at the relevance of the lead-in race to the SP favourite's performance, here in terms of the last-start winning margin.
For this report the last-start winning margin ranges are:
- 0.1 - 3.0 lengths
- 3.1 - 5.0 lengths
- 5.1 - 10.0 lengths
- 10.1+ lengths
The results cover two full racing seasons, 2021-2022 and 2022-2023.
The analysis reports on the success rate of the Starting Price Favourite in terms of:
Location - this analysis looks at this success rate:
- Overall all locations
- Metropolitan racing
- Provincial racing
- Country racing
Age - the data is further broken down into three age groups:
- 2yo gallopers
- 3yo gallopers
- 4yo+ gallopers
(Note: A further condition has been applied in this analysis - the horse must have raced within the last 1 to 59 days; that is, we are excluding horses resuming from a spell.)
Table - SP favourite performance and Last Start Winning Margin
| 2yo | 0.1-3.0 | Win | win% | 3.1-5.0 | Win | win% | 5.1-10 | Win | win% | 10.1+ | Win | win% |
| Overall | 216 | 94 | 43.5% | *30 | 16 | 53.3% | *10 | 6 | 60.0% | *1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Metropolitan | 142 | 61 | 43.0% | *19 | 8 | 42.1% | *6 | 4 | 66.7% | *1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Provincial | *36 | 14 | 38.9% | *7 | 5 | 71.4% | *1 | 0 | 0.0% | na | | |
| Country | *38 | 19 | 50.0% | *4 | 3 | 75.0% | *3 | 2 | 66.7% | na | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 3yo | 0.1-3.0 | Win | win% | 3.1-5.0 | Win | win% | 5.1-10 | Win | win% | 10.1+ | Win | win% |
| Overall | 1544 | 549 | 35.6% | 285 | 103 | 36.1% | *92 | 41 | 44.6% | *6 | 2 | 33.3% |
| Metropolitan | 609 | 186 | 30.5% | 113 | 41 | 36.3% | *30 | 12 | 40.0% | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Provincial | 514 | 198 | 38.5% | 108 | 34 | 31.5% | *32 | 16 | 50.0% | *3 | 2 | 66.7% |
| Country | 421 | 165 | 39.2% | *64 | 28 | 43.8% | *30 | 13 | 43.3% | *3 | 0 | 0.0% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 4yo+ | 0.1-3.0 | Win | win% | 3.1-5.0 | Win | win% | 5.1-10 | Win | win% | 10.1+ | Win | win% |
| Overall | 3739 | 1275 | 34.1% | 606 | 263 | 43.4% | 206 | 78 | 37.9% | *20 | 8 | 40.0% |
| Metropolitan | 1236 | 406 | 32.8% | 168 | 75 | 44.6% | *41 | 13 | 31.7% | *3 | 2 | 66.7% |
| Provincial | 1013 | 339 | 33.5% | 171 | 74 | 43.3% | *63 | 20 | 31.7% | *11 | 4 | 36.4% |
| Country | 1490 | 530 | 35.6% | 267 | 114 | 42.7% | 102 | 45 | 44.4% | *6 | 2 | 33.3% |
* - insufficient runners for meaningful result
na - insufficient runners for meaningful result
Some take-aways from this analysis:
- For 4yo+ gallopers, noticeable difference between 0.1-3.0 and 3.1-5.0, but the numbers are relatively small.
- Mixed results from this analysis, and the smaller numbers are a contributing factor.
- The pattern of results in the 0.1-3.0 category seem plausible, others categories less so,
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com