First Four Favourites - Days last run, since last win.

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Wednesday, 17 January 2024.

First Four Favourites - Days last run, since last win.

Continuing the Daily Reports that are now focusing on the first four Starting Price (SP) favourites.

The two factors reported on today are:

  • Days since last run
  • Days since last win

Additionally, the analysis reports on the success rate of the first four Starting Price Favourites in terms of:

Location:

  • Metropolitan venues
  • Provincial meetings
  • Country meetings

The days ranges:

  • 1 7 days
  • 8 - 14
  • 15 - 21
  • 22 - 28
  • 29 - 59
  • 60 - 179
  • 180 - 365
  • Over 365 days

The period covered is the last five years.

Table 1 - First four favourites - metropolitan, provincial, country - days since last run.

metropolitan1st fav2nd fav3rd fav4th fav
1 - 7 days32.4%19.0%13.2%10.1%
8 - 1434.0%19.1%13.1%9.9%
15 - 21 32.2%19.6%13.0%9.5%
22 - 2831.0%18.1%11.9%10.4%
29 - 5931.0%17.4%13.6%9.3%
60 - 17934.1%19.4%12.4%9.9%
180-36533.3%20.3%12.2%na
over 365nananana
     
     
provincial1st fav2nd fav3rd fav4th fav
1 - 7 days31.6%20.2%14.5%9.2%
8 - 1435.2%19.7%13.5%9.2%
15 - 21 35.1%20.0%13.4%9.6%
22 - 2833.6%21.0%13.5%9.4%
29 - 5933.5%18.6%13.5%9.2%
60 - 17936.4%19.1%14.0%9.8%
180-36535.8%20.7%14.4%9.5%
over 365nananana
     
country1st fav2nd fav3rd fav4th fav
1 - 7 days33.0%21.0%14.7%11.5%
8 - 1433.5%20.0%13.7%10.3%
15 - 21 34.1%19.1%13.4%10.2%
22 - 2833.5%19.6%13.5%9.8%
29 - 5933.1%20.6%14.5%10.2%
60 - 17935.4%19.8%13.9%9.0%
180-36535.6%18.4%12.3%8.7%
over 365nananana

 

Table 2 - First four favourites - metropolitan, provincial, country - days since last win.

metropolitan1st fav2nd fav3rd fav4th fav
1 - 7 daysnananana
8 - 1436.6%19.8%12.9%9.6%
15 - 21 34.1%20.6%13.3%na
22 - 2832.2%18.0%13.0%10.9%
29 - 5931.5%17.8%13.2%10.4%
60 - 17930.9%17.8%12.4%10.4%
180-36532.0%19.4%12.6%9.6%
over 36527.9%18.9%13.6%10.0%
     
provincial1st fav2nd fav3rd fav4th fav
1 - 7 daysnananana
8 - 1436.3%20.4%12.0%na
15 - 21 36.5%21.3%13.4%9.1%
22 - 2836.0%21.4%14.7%10.0%
29 - 5933.5%20.4%13.9%10.4%
60 - 17932.1%18.4%13.8%9.3%
180-36530.9%19.5%13.4%10.1%
over 36530.3%18.3%14.8%9.9%
     
country1st fav2nd fav3rd fav4th fav
1 - 7 days38.2%22.9%nana
8 - 1436.8%21.2%12.5%10.2%
15 - 21 35.5%18.8%13.7%11.9%
22 - 2832.7%20.9%13.6%11.3%
29 - 5933.8%20.6%14.7%10.8%
60 - 17931.9%19.3%14.6%9.7%
180-36530.4%19.2%13.6%10.3%
over 36529.7%19.3%13.7%9.5%

* - insufficient runners for meaningful result

na - insufficient runners for meaningful result

Some take-aways from this analysis:

  • 1st and 2nd fav days last run horses back in 1-21 days slightly outperform on metro and provincial tracks.
  • 1st fav fresh horses (back after 60 or more days) do well; equal or better when compared to other categories.
  • The results for 3rd and 4th favourites similar across all categories.
  • Generally preferable to have a last start winner returning within 28 days for 1st and 2nd favourites.

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com



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