Wizard Daily Report and Research - Thursday, 18 January 2024.
First Four Favourites - Runs from a spell, Trainers.
Continuing the Daily Reports that are now focusing on the first four Starting Price (SP) favourites.
The factor reported on today is:
Additionally, the analysis reports on the success rate of the first four Starting Price Favourites in terms of:
Location:
- Metropolitan venues
- Provincial meetings
- Country meetings
Runs from a spell categories:
- First race start
- 1st up
- 2nd up
- 3rd up
- 4th up
- 5th up
- 6th up
The period covered is the last five years.
As well as the primary report I have included the stats for the leading trainers in the five states on metropolitan, provincial, and country tracks over the last 5 years. (See the notes below.)
Table - First four favourites - metropolitan, provincial, country - runs from a spell - individual trainer stats.
| metrop | 1st fav | 2nd fav | 3rd fav | 4th fav | | Waller | Maher | Gollan | R & C Jolly | Parnham |
| First start | 36.4% | 21.7% | 14.4% | na | | na | na | na | na | na |
| 1st up | 33.9% | 19.4% | 12.2% | 9.5% | | 32.8% | 44.6% | 36.8% | 40.0% | na |
| 2nd up | 34.3% | 19.7% | 12.9% | 10.0% | | 31.9% | 35.6% | 37.9% | 31.0% | 29.2% |
| 3rd up | 32.0% | 19.0% | 12.3% | 10.0% | | 29.8% | 35.4% | 36.1% | 43.8% | 41.9% |
| 4th up | 33.3% | 19.3% | 12.9% | 8.7% | | 31.4% | 35.7% | 42.1% | 28.6% | 42.9% |
| 5th up | 32.3% | 17.9% | 13.6% | 10.3% | | 27.9% | 27.4% | 46.0% | na | na |
| 6th up | 31.6% | 20.0% | 12.6% | 11.1% | | 34.6% | 32.7% | 44.1% | na | na |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| provincial | 1st fav | 2nd fav | 3rd fav | 4th fav | | Cummings | Hayes 2 | Currie | O'Connor | Durrant |
| First start | 35.2% | 20.2% | 14.6% | 9.8% | | 37.5% | na | na | na | na |
| 1st up | 36.1% | 19.6% | 14.0% | 9.5% | | 36.7% | 29.4 | 39.0 | na | na |
| 2nd up | 36.9% | 20.0% | 13.5% | 9.1% | | 33.6% | 46.0 | 33.8 | na | 40.0% |
| 3rd up | 34.8% | 20.5% | 13.0% | 9.3% | | 42.4% | 26.3 | 32.7 | na | 25.0% |
| 4th up | 35.1% | 20.3% | 13.1% | 10.2% | | 30.8% | na | 30.0 | na | 32.4% |
| 5th up | 32.9% | 19.7% | 14.2% | 8.6% | | na | na | na | na | na |
| 6th up | 33.8% | 19.8% | 14.6% | 9.2% | | na | na | na | na | na |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| country | 1st fav | 2nd fav | 3rd fav | 4th fav | | Lees | Price 3 | na | na | na |
| First start | 35.4% | 18.6% | 12.1% | 9.5% | | 38.1% | 46.3 | na | na | na |
| 1st up | 35.1% | 19.3% | 13.2% | 8.8% | | 43.1% | 38.8 | na | na | na |
| 2nd up | 35.5% | 18.9% | 13.0% | 9.9% | | 37.5% | 31.2 | na | na | na |
| 3rd up | 33.6% | 20.3% | 13.9% | 10.6% | | 33.1% | 39.1 | na | na | na |
| 4th up | 35.5% | 19.7% | 13.8% | 10.2% | | 49.0% | na | na | na | na |
| 5th up | 33.9% | 19.9% | 13.2% | 9.5% | | na | na | na | na | na |
| 6th up | 32.9% | 20.3% | 15.1% | 11.4% | | na | na | na | na | na |
* - insufficient runners for meaningful result
na - insufficient runners for meaningful result
Notes on the individual trainers:
- The leading trainer in the 2022-2023 season on each state's metro, provincial, and country tracks.
- The stat refers to the trainer's record with 1st favourite only in the appropriate location.
- As Maher- Eustace headed both metro and provincial in Victoria have covered BWJD Hayes (ranked 2nd) in the provincial category and Price-Kent (3rd) in the country category.
- The minimum number of observations was set at 50, but in SA and WA had to drop that minimum to 30; also had to use 30 for the Hayes brothers.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com