First Four Favourites - Runs from a spell, Trainers.

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Thursday, 18 January 2024.

First Four Favourites - Runs from a spell, Trainers.

Continuing the Daily Reports that are now focusing on the first four Starting Price (SP) favourites.

The factor reported on today is:

  • Runs from a spell.

Additionally, the analysis reports on the success rate of the first four Starting Price Favourites in terms of:

Location:

  • Metropolitan venues
  • Provincial meetings
  • Country meetings

Runs from a spell categories:

  • First race start
  • 1st up
  • 2nd up
  • 3rd up
  • 4th up
  • 5th up
  • 6th up

The period covered is the last five years.

As well as the primary report I have included the stats for the leading trainers in the five states on metropolitan, provincial, and country tracks over the last 5 years. (See the notes below.)

                                             Table - First four favourites - metropolitan, provincial, country  - runs from a spell - individual trainer stats.

metrop1st fav2nd fav3rd fav4th fav WallerMaherGollanR & C Jolly Parnham
First start36.4%21.7%14.4%na nanananana
1st up33.9%19.4%12.2%9.5% 32.8%44.6%36.8%40.0%na
2nd up34.3%19.7%12.9%10.0% 31.9%35.6%37.9%31.0%29.2%
3rd up32.0%19.0%12.3%10.0% 29.8%35.4%36.1%43.8%41.9%
4th up33.3%19.3%12.9%8.7% 31.4%35.7%42.1%28.6%42.9%
5th up32.3%17.9%13.6%10.3% 27.9%27.4%46.0%nana
6th up31.6%20.0%12.6%11.1% 34.6%32.7%44.1%nana
           
provincial1st fav2nd fav3rd fav4th fav CummingsHayes 2CurrieO'ConnorDurrant
First start35.2%20.2%14.6%9.8% 37.5%nananana
1st up36.1%19.6%14.0%9.5% 36.7%29.439.0nana
2nd up36.9%20.0%13.5%9.1% 33.6%46.033.8na40.0%
3rd up34.8%20.5%13.0%9.3% 42.4%26.332.7na25.0%
4th up35.1%20.3%13.1%10.2% 30.8%na30.0na32.4%
5th up32.9%19.7%14.2%8.6% nanananana
6th up33.8%19.8%14.6%9.2% nanananana
           
country1st fav2nd fav3rd fav4th fav LeesPrice 3nanana
First start35.4%18.6%12.1%9.5% 38.1%46.3nanana
1st up35.1%19.3%13.2%8.8% 43.1%38.8nanana
2nd up35.5%18.9%13.0%9.9% 37.5%31.2nanana
3rd up33.6%20.3%13.9%10.6% 33.1%39.1nanana
4th up35.5%19.7%13.8%10.2% 49.0%nananana
5th up33.9%19.9%13.2%9.5% nanananana
6th up32.9%20.3%15.1%11.4% nanananana

* - insufficient runners for meaningful result

na - insufficient runners for meaningful result

Notes on the individual trainers:

  • The leading trainer in the 2022-2023 season on each state's metro, provincial, and country tracks.
  • The stat refers to the trainer's record with 1st favourite only in the appropriate location.
  • As Maher- Eustace headed both metro and provincial in Victoria have covered BWJD Hayes (ranked 2nd) in the provincial category and Price-Kent (3rd) in the country category.
  • The minimum number of observations was set at 50, but in SA and WA had to drop that minimum to 30; also had to use 30 for the Hayes brothers.

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com



Back