First Four Favourites - Distance, Trainers.

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Friday, 19 January 2024.

First Four Favourites - Distance, Trainers.

Continuing the Daily Reports that are now focusing on the first four Starting Price (SP) favourites.

The factor reported on today is:

  • Distance of the race.

The analysis reports on the success rate of the first four Starting Price Favourites in terms of:

Location:

  • Metropolitan venues
  • Provincial meetings
  • Country meetings

Distance categories: (metres)

  • Up to 1199m
  • 1200-1399
  • 1400-1699
  • 1700-1899
  • 1900-2199
  • 2200-2500
  • More than 2500m

The period covered is the last five years.

As well as the primary report I have included the stats for the leading trainers in the five states on metropolitan, provincial, and country tracks over the last 5 years. (See the notes below.)

                                                 Table - First four favourites metropolitan, provincial, country - distance individual trainer stats.

metrop1st fav2nd fav3rd fav4th fav WallerMaherGollanJolly Parnham
=< 1199m34.2%20.6%12.7%9.5% 25.0%45.3%39.4%41.9%35.4%
1200-139933.5%20.0%12.7%9.4% 32.8%36.6%37.3%37.9%32.9%
1400-169932.5%18.4%12.9%10.1% 31.3%31.1%*40%26.5%40.2%
1700-189930.2%18.3%12.3%10.4% 32.1%34.1%nanana
1900-219932.1%16.6%14.0%11.0% 32.4%29.0%nanana
2200-250032.7%18.4%14.1%9.5% 42.6%30.2%nanana
>2500m32.9%18.1%14.0%7.1% 39.3%36.9%nanana
           
provincial1st fav2nd fav3rd fav4th fav CummingsHayes 2CurrieO'ConnorDurrant
=< 1199m36.4%20.4%14.1%9.1% 35.7%37.1%34.6%na32.5%
1200-139935.4%19.7%13.1%9.4% 37.3%32.8%34.2%na29.8%
1400-169933.4%19.6%14.1%9.6% 32.0%47.2%*38.5%na32.9%
1700-189931.5%21.6%14.1%9.8% nanananana
1900-219936.1%18.8%11.9%9.9% nanananana
2200-250034.3%20.1%12.7%8.3% nanananana
>2500m36.4%20.2%15.3%10.1% nanananana
           
country1st fav2nd fav3rd fav4th fav LeesPrice 3nanana
=< 1199m35.3%19.9%14.1%9.9% 38.4%36.8%nanana
1200-139934.0%19.5%13.4%9.8% 44.6%28.9%nanana
1400-169932.2%19.8%13.4%10.7% 37.5%36.2%nanana
1700-189933.7%20.1%12.5%9.1% *36.0%nananana
1900-219933.6%19.3%13.5%11.3% nanananana
2200-250034.2%22.5%13.8%7.4% nanananana
>2500m31.1%22.3%13.7%11.3% nanananana

* - insufficient runners for meaningful result

na - insufficient runners for meaningful result

Notes on the individual trainers:

  • The leading trainer in the 2022-2023 season on each state's metro, provincial, and country tracks.
  • The stat refers to the trainer's record with 1st favourite only in the appropriate location.
  • As Maher- Eustace headed both metro and provincial in Victoria have covered BWJD Hayes (ranked 2nd) in the provincial category and Price-Kent (3rd) in the country category.
  • The minimum number of observations was set at 50, but in SA and WA had to drop that minimum to 30; also had to use 30 for the Hayes brothers.

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com



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