Wizard Daily Report and Research - Saturday, 20 January 2024.
First Four Favourites - Days since last run, Trainers.
Continuing the Daily Reports that are now focusing on the first four Starting Price (SP) favourites.
Since posting some individual trainer stats in this series some subscribers have asked if I could re-post the earlier stats in this series with the leading trainers included.
Happy to do this, and today will repost the Days Since Last Run stats with the leading trainer's figures.
The factor reported on today is:
The analysis reports on the success rate of the first four Starting Price Favourites in terms of:
Location:
- Metropolitan venues
- Provincial meetings
- Country meetings
The days ranges:
- 1 - 7 days
- 8 - 14
- 15 - 21
- 22 - 28
- 29 - 59
- 60 - 179
- 180 - 365
- Over 365 days
The period covered is the last five years.
As well as the primary report this table now includes the stats for the leading trainers in the five states on metropolitan, provincial, and country tracks over the last 5 years. (See the notes below.)
Table - First four favourites - metropolitan, provincial, country - days since last run - trainers.
| metrop | 1st fav | 2nd fav | 3rd fav | 4th fav | | Waller | Maher | Gollan | Jolly | Parnham |
| 1 - 7 days | 32.4% | 19.0% | 13.2% | 10.1% | | 31.3% | na | na | na | 30.8% |
| 8 - 14 | 34.0% | 19.1% | 13.1% | 9.9% | | 31.9% | 36.5% | 40.9% | 36.6% | 41.7% |
| 15 - 21 | 32.2% | 19.6% | 13.0% | 9.5% | | 33.1% | 34.4% | 37.7% | 36.5% | 30.0% |
| 22 - 28 | 31.0% | 18.1% | 11.9% | 10.4% | | 33.1% | 32.0% | 41.2% | na | na |
| 29 - 59 | 31.0% | 17.4% | 13.6% | 9.3% | | 33.3% | 31.6% | na | na | na |
| 60 - 179 | 34.1% | 19.4% | 12.4% | 9.9% | | 31.2% | 43.9% | na | na | na |
| 180-365 | 33.3% | 20.3% | 12.2% | na | | na | na | na | na | na |
| over 365 | na | na | na | na | | na | na | na | na | na |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| provincial | 1st fav | 2nd fav | 3rd fav | 4th fav | | Cummings | Hayes 2 | Currie | O'Connor | Durrant |
| 1 - 7 days | 31.6% | 20.2% | 14.5% | 9.2% | | na | na | na | na | na |
| 8 - 14 | 35.2% | 19.7% | 13.5% | 9.2% | | 28.0% | na | 30.4% | na | 34.9% |
| 15 - 21 | 35.1% | 20.0% | 13.4% | 9.6% | | 39.0% | 36.1% | 38.8% | na | 28.6% |
| 22 - 28 | 33.6% | 21.0% | 13.5% | 9.4% | | 30.4% | 42.9% | na | na | na |
| 29 - 59 | 33.5% | 18.6% | 13.5% | 9.2% | | na | na | na | na | na |
| 60 - 179 | 36.4% | 19.1% | 14.0% | 9.8% | | 40.3% | na | na | na | na |
| 180-365 | 35.8% | 20.7% | 14.4% | 9.5% | | na | na | na | na | na |
| over 365 | na | na | na | na | | na | na | na | na | na |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| country | 1st fav | 2nd fav | 3rd fav | 4th fav | | Lees | Price 3 | na | na | na |
| 1 - 7 days | 33.0% | 21.0% | 14.7% | 11.5% | | na | na | na | na | na |
| 8 - 14 | 33.5% | 20.0% | 13.7% | 10.3% | | 37.2% | na | na | na | na |
| 15 - 21 | 34.1% | 19.1% | 13.4% | 10.2% | | 41.8% | 35.3% | na | na | na |
| 22 - 28 | 33.5% | 19.6% | 13.5% | 9.8% | | 38.9% | na | na | na | na |
| 29 - 59 | 33.1% | 20.6% | 14.5% | 10.2% | | na | na | na | na | na |
| 60 - 179 | 35.4% | 19.8% | 13.9% | 9.0% | | 41.5% | na | na | na | na |
| 180-365 | 35.6% | 18.4% | 12.3% | 8.7% | | na | na | na | na | na |
| over 365 | na | na | na | na | | na | na | na | na | na |
* - insufficient runners for meaningful result
na - insufficient runners for meaningful result
Notes on the individual trainers:
- The leading trainer in the 2022-2023 season on each state's metro, provincial, and country tracks.
- The stat refers to the trainer's record with 1st favourite only in the appropriate location.
- As Maher- Eustace headed both metro and provincial in Victoria have covered BWJD Hayes (ranked 2nd) in the provincial category and Price-Kent (3rd) in the country category.
- The minimum number of observations was set at 50, but in SA and WA had to drop that minimum to 30; also had to use 30 for the Hayes brothers.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com