First Four Favourites - Days since last win, Trainers.

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Sunday, 21 January 2024.

First Four Favourites - Days since last win, Trainers.

Continuing the Daily Reports that are now focusing on the first four Starting Price (SP) favourites.

Since posting some individual trainer stats in this series some subscribers have asked if I could re-post the earlier stats in this series with the leading trainers included.

Happy to do this, and today will repost the Days Since Last Win stats with the leading trainer's figures.

The factor reported on today is:

  • Days since last win.

The analysis reports on the success rate of the first four Starting Price Favourites in terms of:

Location:

  • Metropolitan venues
  • Provincial meetings
  • Country meetings

The days ranges:

  • 1 - 7 days
  • 8 - 14
  • 15 - 21
  • 22 - 28
  • 29 - 59
  • 60 - 179
  • 180 - 365
  • Over 365 days

The period covered is the last five years.

As well as the primary report this table now includes the stats with the SP 1st favourite for the leading trainers in the five states on metropolitan, provincial, and country tracks over the last 5 years. (See the notes below.)

                                                            Table - First four favourites - metropolitan, provincial, country - days since last win - trainers.

metrop1st fav2nd fav3rd fav4th fav WallerMaherGollanR & C Jolly Parnham
1 - 7 daysnananana nanananana
8 - 1436.6%19.8%12.9%9.6% 33.1%40.8%38.7%na*39.4%
15 - 21 34.1%20.6%13.3%na 35.7%35.9%35.9%nana
22 - 2832.2%18.0%13.0%10.9% 32.9%38.2%*54.8%nana
29 - 5931.5%17.8%13.2%10.4% 30.8%25.0%43.5%*51.5%na
60 - 17930.9%17.8%12.4%10.4% 34.4%38.0%31.0%*40.6%na
180-36532.0%19.4%12.6%9.6% 28.3%42.3%40.0%*30.8%38.2%
over 36527.9%18.9%13.6%10.0% 32.5%25.636.7nana
           
provincial1st fav2nd fav3rd fav4th fav J CummingsHayes 2CurrieO'ConnorDurrant
1 - 7 daysnananana nanananana
8 - 1436.3%20.4%12.0%na nana*30.8%nana
15 - 21 36.5%21.3%13.4%9.1% nana*50.0%nana
22 - 2836.0%21.4%14.7%10.0% nanananana
29 - 5933.5%20.4%13.9%10.4% 36.6%na*34.5%nana
60 - 17932.1%18.4%13.8%9.3% 28.3%nananana
180-36530.9%19.5%13.4%10.1% 23.4%na29.4%nana
over 36530.3%18.3%14.8%9.9% nana*24.2%nana
           
country1st fav2nd fav3rd fav4th fav LeesPrice 3nanana
1 - 7 days38.2%22.9%nana nanananana
8 - 1436.8%21.2%12.5%10.2% nanananana
15 - 21 35.5%18.8%13.7%11.9% 32.2%nananana
22 - 2832.7%20.9%13.6%11.3% 33.3%nananana
29 - 5933.8%20.6%14.7%10.8% 33.3%nananana
60 - 17931.9%19.3%14.6%9.7% 39.8%nananana
180-36530.4%19.2%13.6%10.3% 36.8%nananana
over 36529.7%19.3%13.7%9.5% nanananana

* - insufficient runners for meaningful result

na - insufficient runners for meaningful result

Notes on the individual trainers:

  • The leading trainer in the 2022-2023 season on each state's metro, provincial, and country tracks.
  • The stat refers to the trainer's record with 1st favourite only in the appropriate location.
  • As Maher- Eustace headed both metro and provincial in Victoria have covered BWJD Hayes (ranked 2nd) in the provincial category and Price-Kent (3rd) in the country category.
  • The minimum number of observations was set at 50, but in SA and WA had to drop that minimum to 30; also had to use 30 for the Hayes brothers.

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com



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