Distance changes, with impact value - Melbourne Trainers.

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Sunday, 11 February 2024.

Distance changes, with impact value - Melbourne Trainers.

Wizard continues its reporting on statistics that are relevant to a trainer's mode of operation and their level of success.

Today the Daily Report looks at the top 10 Melbourne metropolitan trainers in the 2022-2023 season in terms of their success rate with runners changing distance. The runners considered are those that started at less than 10/1.

The factor reported on today is:

  • Distance change from last start.

The analysis reports on the success rate in terms of:


  • Metropolitan.

The distance changes: (metres)

  • Over -500m
  • -500 to -301m
  • -300 to -101m
  • -100 to +100m
  • +101 to +300m
  • +301 to +500m
  • Over > +500m

The period covered is the last five years.

Note: As well as the win percentage, the impact value is included.

By way of explanation, an impact value is an index which is calculated by looking at the percentage of winners that possess a particular characteristic (say, 1-7 days since last run) when compared to the percentage of winners from the group as a whole (here, all winners from the stable).


Suppose Chris Waller had 157 winners from 849 starters who were racing within seven day of their last race (1-7 days). In the period surveyed overall he had 2,794 winners from 20,127 starters. 

His 1-7-days winners had an impact value of 1.3.


157 (1-7 winners) divided by 2794 (all winners) = 5.6%

849 (1-7 starters) divided by 20,127 (all starters) = 4.2%

Divide 5.6% by 4.2% = 1.3 (impact value)

An impact value of 1.0 means that the horses with a particular characteristic won a percentage of their races that was equal to the percentage they were of the total number of runners in the group.

In the above example Chris Waller's 1-7-days winners would represent 5.6% of all winners but were only 4.2% of the total starters from the stable. That means these 1-7-days runners won more than their fair share of the races won by the group as a whole.

                                                                       Table - Distance changes - Top 10 trainers 2022-2023 Melbourne.

metropC MaherP MoodyW B JDJ CummingsM PriceP PayneM MoroneyT BusuttinP StokesG Waterhouse
 D EustaceK ColemanHayes M Kent  N Young A Bott
over -500mnananananananananana
-500 to -301mnananananananananana
-300 to -101m14.8%  0.7nana19.3%  0.9na*23.8%  1.1na*25.7%  1.523.3%  1.2na
-100 to +100m21.3%  1.022.9%  1.021.7%  1.021.7%  1.021.1%  1.020.2%  0.920.6%  1.116.7%  1.019.9%  1.018.4%  0.9
+101 to +300m19.4%  0.926.5%  1.219.3%  0.917.4%  0.818.5%  0.921.2%  1.016.2%  0.915.0%  0.915.9%  0.822.8%  1.1
+301 to +500m20.0%  1.0nana24.6%  1.223.3%  1.226.3%  1.2*15.4%  0.816.2%  0.9*22.2%  1.128.7%  1.4
over +500m28.3%  1.4nanananananananana

* - insufficient runners for meaningful result, but sufficient to be indicative.

na - insufficient runners for meaningful result


Warren - Wiz-Ed

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