Wizard Daily Report and Research - Tuesday, 5 March 2024.
Four key metrics, with impact value - Trainers - W.A. Provincials and Country.
Wizard continues its reporting on statistics that are relevant to a trainer's mode of operation and their level of success.
Today the Daily Report looks at the trainers who ranked 1 to 10 in Western Australian provincial racing in the 2022-2023 season in terms of their success rate with runners racing under certain circumstances. The runners considered are those that started at less than 10/1.
Note that when generating the Queensland statistics, I found that few trainers had a meaningful number of runners on what I classify as provincial tracks. Most trainers had many of their runners on what I classify as country tracks. I found the same situation in South Australia and Western Australia. So, for these three states I have combined their provincial and country stats for the 2022-2023 season into the one table.
The analysis reports on the success rate in terms of:
Location:
The factors reported on:
- Won last start. (back-to-back results)
- 1st favourite. (strike rate with starting price favourite)
- First time starter. (strike rate with newcomers)
- First-up. (strike rate with horses resuming from a spell)
The period covered is the last five years.
Note: As well as the win percentage, the impact value is included.
By way of explanation, an impact value is an index which is calculated by looking at the percentage of winners that possess a particular characteristic (say, 1-7 days since last run) when compared to the percentage of winners from the group as a whole (here, all winners from the stable).
Example:
Suppose Chris Waller had 157 winners from 849 starters who were racing within seven day of their last race (1-7 days). In the period surveyed overall he had 2,794 winners from 20,127 starters.
His 1-7-days winners had an impact value of 1.3.
Calculation:
157 (1-7 winners) divided by 2794 (all winners) = 5.6%
849 (1-7 starters) divided by 20,127 (all starters) = 4.2%
Divide 5.6% by 4.2% = 1.3 (impact value)
An impact value of 1.0 means that the horses with a particular characteristic won a percentage of their races that was equal to the percentage they were of the total number of runners in the group.
In the above example Chris Waller's 1-7-days winners would represent 5.6% of all winners but were only 4.2% of the total starters from the stable. That means these 1-7-days runners won more than their fair share of the races won by the group as a whole.
Table - Four key metrics - W.A. Provincial & Country 2022-2023 - Top 10 provincial trainers.
| Provincial | Adam | D & B | Peter | Steve | Roy | David | Neville | G & A | Daniel | Brett |
| & country | Durrant | Pearce | Fernie | Wolfe | Rogers | Harrison | Parnham | Williams | Morton | Pope |
| won last start | 25.2% 1.0 | 24.3% 1.0 | 23.4% 1.2 | 21.4% 1.2 | 30.6% 1.4 | 27.0% 1.2 | na | 35.3% 1.2 | *7.3% 0.4 | na |
| 1st favourite | 36.7% 1.6 | 36.7% 1.6 | 32.7% 1.7 | 34.2% 1.8 | 41.3% 1.9 | 37.8% 1.6 | 40.0% 2.0 | 41.7% 1.5 | 33.3% 1.6 | 16.7% 1.1 |
| first time starter | 14.4% 0.6 | *17.1% 0.7 | na | na | na | na | na | 24.1% 0.9 | na | na |
| first-up | 27.7% 1.2 | 21.3% 0.9 | 22.1% 1.1 | 25.9% 1.4 | 25.4% 1.2 | 16.4% 0.7 | 17.2% 0.9 | 37.8% 1.3 | 14.5% 0.7 | 18.5% 1.2 |
* - insufficient runners for meaningful result, but sufficient to be indicative.
na - insufficient runners for meaningful result
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com