Wizard Ratings Report - week ending 10.3.24

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Monday, 11 March 2024.

Wizard Ratings Report - week ending 10.3.24  (NEW)

This is the first of what will be regular reports on the results of the top 3 rated runners in Wizard and Wizard Plus on Australian race meetings.

The planned schedule is:

Monday - Report on the previous week

Tuesday - Monday Report and Wizard Rating (Wrat) discussion

Wednesday - Tuesday Report and Wizard Plus Model Rating (Wmod) discussion

Thursday - Wednesday Report and Wizard Plus Handicap Rating (Whcp) discussion

Friday - Thursday Report and Wizard Plus Expected Peak Rating (Wexpk) discussion

Saturday - Friday Report and Wizard Plus Jockey, Filter, Negatives discussion

Sunday - Saturday Report and Wizard Panel discussion

The following tables show where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk in that order. 

The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. 

The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.

For example, a cell entry of 1 - 2. 3 would read as:

.. 1 .. rated 1st (100 pointer) on Wrat

.. - .. not rated in the top three on Wmod

.. 2. .. rated equal 2nd on Whcp (the full stop after the numeric indicates it was rated equal 2nd)

.. 3 .. rated 3rd on Wexpk

With respect to equal-rated runners: This does not happen with Wrat as we have an algorithm that separates runners by adjusting the base ratings by career-record and form-related factors. The same procedure is applied with the Wmod, but not as extensively, and occasionally equal-rated horses could appear, but infrequently.

Where equal-rated runners are more common is in the ratings analysis that is basically pure weight handicapping, the Whcp and Wexpk analyses.

The Wizard and Wizard Plus Ratings Results for the week ending March 10 follow. (Summary stats follow the tables.)

Mon 4.3.24 Race 1Race 2Race 3Race 4Race 5Race 6Race 7Race 8Race 9Race 10
 sotw m h e w m h e w m h e w m h e w m h e 
Cowras52 2 1 1- - 2 2 - 2 - -3 - - -3 2 2 . 1- 2 - 3    
Yorkg41 1 1 23 - 2 02 2 3 . 1- - - 11 - 1 11 1 1 -- - - 11 - 3 -  
Tue 5.3.24 Race 1Race 2Race 3Race 4Race 5Race 6Race 7Race 8Race 9Race 10
 sotw m h e w m h e w m h e w m h e w m h e 
Kembla Grangeg43 2 2 2- - - -2 1 1 2- - - -2 2 1 1.1 2 1 -2 2 - -   
Terangg41 1 2 - 1 1 1 2.- - - -1 1 1 12 - 1 3.1 1 1 -1 1 1 31 3 - -  
Townsvilles51 2 1 1.1 1 1 . 31 1 1 11 - 1 11 2 2 -- - - -- - - -   
Waggag41 1 1 1- - - 1.- - 1. -- 3 3. 3.- 3 3 -- - - -1 1 2 -   
Wed 6.3.24 Race 1Race 2Race 3Race 4Race 5Race 6Race 7Race 8Race 9Race 10
 sotw m h e w m h e w m h e w m h e w m h e 
Ascots5- - 2 32 1 1. -- 3 - -- - 3. 2.- - 3 31 2 2 -2 3 - -   
Balaklavag4- - 2 2- - - -1 2 1 -3 2 2. 23 2 1 -- - - 2.- - 2 -   
Doombens6- - - -3 3 2 -1 2 - -- - - -- - - -1 1 1 2- 1 - -- - - -1 - - - 
Launcestons5- - - -- - 2 -3 - - -1 1 1 3- - 2 -1 1 3 -1 2 2. 3.1 1 1. -2 1 1 - 
Sandowng43 3 3. -1 1 1 1- 3. 3. -1 1 1 1.1 1 - -- - 2. 23 - 1 33 - 1 -  
Warwick Farmg42 2 2 11 1 - -- 2 - -2 - - -- - - -2 - 3. -2 - 1 2- - - 3  
Thu 7.3.24 Race 1Race 2Race 3Race 4Race 5Race 6Race 7Race 8Race 9Race 10
 sotw m h e w m h e w m h e w m h e w m h e 
Graftons61 1 1 1 - - - 1- - - -- - 2  12 1 - -- - 1 2.1 1 - -2 2 - 2.  
Kynetong4- - - -2 - 1 21 1 2 3- - - -1 1 1 -1 1 2 1.- - - -- - - -  
Pakenhamg41 1 1. 11 1 3 21 1 2 2.- - 2. 33 - - 32 2 2. -- 2 - -3 - - -  
Pinjarrag4- - - -- - - 3- 3. - -- - - -2 1 1 3- - 2. 2- - - -   
Fri 8.3.24 Race 1Race 2Race 3Race 4Race 5Race 6Race 7Race 8Race 9Race 10
 sotw m h e w m h e w m h e w m h e w m h e 
Araratg4- 2 3 21 1 1 2- - 2 3.- - - -- - - -- - 2. 1    
Dubbog42 1 1 1 - 2 - 1- - - -2 - - -1 2 - -- - 3. 12 1 - -- - - -  
Moonee Valleyg4- - 2 31 2 - -1 1 1 33 2 2 2- - 3 3.1 1 - 3.1 3 1 13 - 1 2.- 3 2. - 
Newcastleg42 3 2 1- - - 1- 2 - -- - 3 31 1 2 3- 2 3. -- - - -- - 3 3.  
Rockhamptons5- - - -1 1 1 23 2 3 -- - - -- - - -- - - -- 2 - -   
Sat 9.3.24 Race 1Race 2Race 3Race 4Race 5Race 6Race 7Race 8Race 9Race 10
 sotw m h e w m h e w m h e w m h e w m h e 
Ballinas72 3 1 2- - - -3 2 2. 23 - - -1 1 2 2- - - -    
Bunburyg43 3 3 3 2 1 1 22 1 3 -- - 3 -- - 3. -- - - -2 2 - 1- - 1. -2 1 2. - 
Flemingtong43 - - 33 2 1 11 1 - -2 2 3 2- - 1. 22 1 - 3- 2 - -- - - 3.  
Gold Coasts5- - - -- - 1. -- - - 3- 3 3. -- - - -- 2 - -1 3 1 1- - - 2- - 1 -- - - -
Hawkesburyg43 3 - 11 - 3. -2 3. 1 23 2 1 -3 3 - -- 3 2 -- - - - - - 2. -  
Ipswichs52 - 1 33 2 - 32 1 1 11 2.- -1 1 - 22 1 1 11 1 2 2- - 1 3.- - - 3- 3 3 3.
Mingenewg42 1 - -         
Murray Bridges51 1 1 12 2 - -2 3 1 3 1 1 - -- - - -- - - -- - 3. -- 3 1 -- - 2 - 
Pioneer Parkg1 1 2 2- 2 2 31 - 1 11 2 1 21 1 1 2- 2 2 -1 1 3 2   
Randwickg4- - - 32 1 - - - - 2. -2 1 - -- 2 3. -- - - 33 2 - -3 - 2 -1 - - -- - 1. 1
Toowoombag41 3 3 -2 - 1 1- - - -- - - -1 1 3. -- - - -- - 3 -   
Towongg41 1 1 12 1 - 11 1 1 1- - - 1.- 2 3 -- - - -1 - - -   
Sun 10.3.24 Race 1Race 2Race 3Race 4Race 5Race 6Race 7Race 8Race 9Race 10
 sotw m h e w m h e w m h e w m h e w m h e 
Albanyg41 1 1 11 1 1 3.- 2 - 1- - - 22 - 3 -- - - -- - - -- 3 2 3  
Canberras51 2 - 21 2 - -- - - -1 2 2 -- 3 1. 13 2. - -2 - 1 11 3 1. 31 1. 1 -2 2 2 -
Clareg42 3 1 3- 2 1 -1 3 3 3.2 1 1. -3 2 1 -1 3 - 3- 3 - 22 2 - -  
Echucag4- - - -- - - -1 1 2 31 3 - 23 2 2 -3 2 2 -- - - -2 2 - 2.  
Stony Creekg4- - - 12 3 1 1- - - -- - - -- 3 - - - - - -3 3 - -- - - 2.3 - - 3 
Sun Coast Polya- - - -1 1 1 3.- - 3. 11 2 - -- 3 3. 22 2 2. 11 1 1 2.1 - 1 21 1 1 - 
Tanworthg4- - 3. 2.1 2 1. -1 3 2 -- - - -3 3 - -1 1 - -- 2 - -3 - - -  

Header - w m h e =  Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk

 

Overall, the results last week for Wrat reflected the long-term average at 27% (84 top-rated winners from 312 races.) 

From Monday to Sunday the daily results were: (28.5%, 45%, 25%, 26%, 21%, 21.5%, 32%)

A few of the notable double-figure top-rated (100 pointer) winners during the week were:

General Assembly - Sandown - Whcp - $61.00

Rocky Ride - Grafton - Wexpk - $18.00, $33.00 bet earlier in the day

A Silvery Warrior - Ararat - Wexpk - $15.00

Blazing Away - Bunbury - Whcp - $46.00, $70.00 bet earlier

Chairman's Choice - Towong - Wrat - $12.00

Mikazuki - Stony Creek - Wexpk - $14.00

 

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com



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