Wizard Daily Report and Research - Saturday, 16 March 2024.
Wizard Ratings Report (1,2) - Wizard Monthly Summary (NEW)
- Wizard Ratings Monthly Summary (NEW)
- Wizard Ratings Results for Friday, March 15
- Wizard Plus - Jockey, Filter, Negatives discussion
Wizard Ratings Monthly Summary for August and September 2023
The Wizard Rating (Wrat) is a key component of the Wizard and is a reliable and consistent ratings assessment of the chances in all thoroughbred races run in Australia and covered by Tabcorp.
The following table shows the monthly results of Wrat during this 2023-2024 racing season. Today, August and September, with reports on later months to follow over the next few days.
Table - Wizard Rating (Wrat) monthly results
| August 2023 | Best | September 2023 | Best |
| Top Rated Winner - 334/1339 (24.9%) | $18.00 | Top Rated Winner - 357/1318 (27.1%) | $16.90 |
| Winner (top two rated) - 565 (42.2%) | $29.00 | Winner (top two rated) - 588 (44.6%) | $31.60 |
| Winner (four rated runners) - 902 (67.4%) | $55.00 | Winner (four rated runners) - 917 (69.6%) | $79.80 |
| Quinella (top two rated) - 150/1338 (11.2%) | $54.20 | Quinella (top two rated) - 138/1316 (10.5%) | $30.70 |
| Quinella (top three rated) - 349 (26.1%) | $95.60 | Quinella (top three rated) - 353 (26.8%) | $117.60 |
| Quinella (four rated runners) - 537 (40.1%) | $249.60 | Quinella (four rated runners) - 565 (42.9%) | $152.60 |
| Exacta (top two rated) - 73 (5.5%) | $95.90 | Exacta (top two rated) - 80 (6.1%) | $57.50 |
| Trifecta (top three, correct order) - 20/1330 (1.5%) | $154.60 | Trifecta (top three, correct order) - 18/1311 (1.4%) | $56.90 |
| Trifecta (box top three) - 92 (6.9%) | $491.70 | Trifecta (box top three) - 98 (7.5%) | $1,227.40 |
| Trifecta (four rated runners) - 258 (19.4%) | $779.10 | Trifecta (four rated runners) - 291 (22.2%) | $1,227.40 |
| First 4 (correct order) - 9/1319 (0.7%) | $514.20 | First 4 (correct order) - 8/1303 (0.6%) | $244.30 |
| First 4 (box four rated runners) - 84 (6.4%) | $2,425.40 | First 4 (box four rated runners) - 99 (7.6%) | $3,302.50 |
The stats in these tables are basically self-explanatory. The "Best" results refer to the highest Tabcorp dividend paid on the best priced result for that category during that month.
Wizard Ratings Results for the meetings on Friday, March 15
The table below shows the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk in that order.
Table - Wizard Ratings Results for Friday, March 15
| Fri 15.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| ESPERANCE | s5 | 3 2 3 2 | 1 1 3. - | - - - - | 1 1 2 - | 1 1 1. - | 1 1 1 - | | | | | 4 4 2. 0 |
| KEMBLA GRANGE | s6 | - - - - | - - - - | - - - - | 1 1 2. 2. | 2 - 1 2. | 3 2 - - | - - 2. - | 1 - 3. 1 | | | 2 1 1 1 |
| LAUNCESTON | s5 | - 3 - - | -1 | 1 1 1 - | 2 - 1 - | 1 1 3 2 | - - - - | -3 | - - 2 - | - - 3 2 | | 2 2 2 1 |
| MUSWELLBROOK | g4g3 | 2 2 - - | 2 2 1. 1 | 2 1 - - | 1 3 2. - | - - - - | - - - - | - 2 - - | 2 - 1 2. | | | 1 1 2. 1 |
| PAKENHAM | g4 | - - - - | - 2. 1 2 | 1 2 1 1 | 1 3 1 2 | - - - - | 3 - 1 1 | - - - - | 2 - 3. 3 | 1 1 2 - | | 3 1 4 2 |
| SUNSHINE COAST | aw | 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 1 2 | 2 - - - | 1 2 3 - | 3 2 2 3 | 1 2 1 - | 1 2 2 - | | | | 5 2 3 1 |
| TOWNSVILLE | s5 | - - - - | - - - - | 2 2 - - | -2 | -3 | 2 2 1 1. | 2 2 2 3. | 2 3. 1 2. | | | 0 0 2 1. |
Header w m h e = Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk
This is the sixth of what will be regular reports on the results of the top 3 rated runners in Wizard and Wizard Plus on Australian race meetings.
The planned schedule is:
Monday - Report on the previous week
Tuesday - Monday Report and Wizard Rating (Wrat) discussion
Wednesday - Tuesday Report and Wizard Plus Model Rating (Wmod) discussion
Thursday - Wednesday Report and Wizard Plus Handicap Rating (Whcp) discussion
Friday - Thursday Report and Wizard Plus Expected Peak Rating (Wexpk) discussion
Saturday - Friday Report and Wizard Plus Jockey, Filter, Negatives discussion
Sunday - Saturday Report and Wizard Panel discussion
The table above shows the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk in that order. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
For example, a cell entry of 1 2. 3 would read as:
.. 1 .. rated 1st (100 pointer) on Wrat
.. - .. not rated in the top three on Wmod
.. 2. .. rated equal 2nd on Whcp (the full stop after the numeric indicates it was rated equal 2nd)
.. 3 .. rated 3rd on Wexpk
As well as the results for individual races there a summary for each meeting which shows the number of winners for each of the Wizard and Wizard Plus ratings. An entry showing '4 3 0 2.' would be read as follows:
.. 4 .. 4 of the winners were rated 1st on Wrat
.. 3 .. 3 of the winners were rated 1st on Wmod
.. 0 .. no winner was rated 1st on Whcp
.. 2. .. 2 winners were rated 1st on Wexpk but at least one of these was an equal top-rater
With respect to equal-rated runners: This does not happen with Wrat as we have an algorithm that separates runners by adjusting the base ratings by career-record and form-related factors. The same procedure is applied with the Wmod, but not as extensively, and occasionally equal-rated horses could appear, but infrequently.
Where equal-rated runners are more common is in the ratings analysis that is basically pure weight handicapping, the Whcp and Wexpk analyses.
Wizard Plus - Jockey, Filter, Negatives
Wjktr
As well as providing a ratings based analysis of a race via Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk, the Wizard also provides a jockey/trainer assessment.
This assessment is designed to reflect the quality of the recent performance of the jockey/trainer combinations that are relevant to the race. When a level of performance exceeds our current benchmark the runner will have an asterisk placed in the Wjktr column. If more than one combination in the race meets or exceeds the Wizard benchmark then each will earn an asterisk.
Wfilt
The Wizard also examines and reports on some key positives and negatives facing each runner in the race.
The ten major factors covered in this analysis are Wrat, age, form cycle (runs from a spell), consistency, form last 12 months, jockey, trainer, running style, distance, wet track form. We apply minimum requirements to each of these factors, and when a runner meets or exceeds that standard it earns a positive rating, when it fails to meet the standard it earns a negative rating.
For example, if a horse met the benchmark standard for 12 factors, but failed to meet the standard for 3 other factors, then it would get a Wfilt score of +9. If, on the other hand it scored negatively on 12 but did score positively on 3, then it would have a score of -9.
In total there are 15 factors that are examined, the 10 listed above, and five other factors judged as being of somewhat lesser importance for this analysis. Not all horses can be evaluated under all 15 factors, as some factors are not present in the horses form history. It is unusual for a score of more than 11 positives (+11) to be assigned to any individual horse.
Experience has shown that score of +7 and above is meaningful. Any positive score is better than a negative score, but it should pay to play closer attention to those runners with a Wfilt score of +7 or more.
Wneg
The Wizard (Wneg) analysis of negative factors facing each runner is similar in concept to the Wizard filter analysis (Wfilt), but is more demanding.
With Wneg it is a binary decision, either the factor is negative, or it is not.
There are 10 factors considered age, form cycle (run from spell), jockey, trainer, Wrat ranking, consistency, quality of form in last 12 months, distance, running style, and class change.
What is highlighted in the Wizard Plus Panel are any runners that have zero negatives for this race.
Again, because there is sometimes more than one qualifier in the Wneg category the overall strike rate is lower than the more restrictive Wrat single top rater. In the 2022-23 season the win strike rate was 18.5%. As to the odds range of Wneg winners, the longest priced winner paid $45.00.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com