Wizard Daily Report and Research - Monday, 18 March 2024.
Wizard Ratings Report (1,2) - Wizard Monthly Summary (NEW)
- Wizard Ratings - Monthly Summary Dec, Jan (NEW)
- Wizard Ratings - Results for week ending March 17
- Wizard Rating discussion
Wizard Ratings - Monthly Summary - December 2023 and January 2024
The Wizard Rating (Wrat) is a key component of the Wizard and is a reliable and consistent ratings assessment of the chances in all thoroughbred races run in Australia and covered by Tabcorp.
The following table shows the third set of monthly results of Wrat during this 2023-2024 racing season. Today, December 2023 and January 2024, with report on February to follow tomorrow.
| Wrat - December 2023 | Best | Wrat - January 2024 | Best |
| Top Rated Winner - 419/1580 (26.5%) | $17.00 | Top Rated Winner - 379/1366 (27.7%) | $15.10 |
| Winner (top two rated) - 678 (42.9%) | $35.00 | Winner (top two rated) - 615 (45.0%) | $25.40 |
| Winner (four rated runners) - 1090 (69.0%) | $50.70 | Winner (four rated runners) - 939 (68.7%) | $25.40 |
| Quinella (top two rated) - 156/1576 (9.9%) | $52.60 | Quinella (top two rated) - 164/1362 (12.0%) | $38.20 |
| Quinella (top three rated) - 367 (23.3%) | $62.60 | Quinella (top three rated) - 367 (26.9%) | $79.40 |
| Quinella (four rated runners) - 615 (39.0%) | $192.90 | Quinella (four rated runners) - 568 (41.7%) | $125.30 |
| Exacta (top two rated) - 84 (5.3%) | $67.40 | Exacta (top two rated) - 98 (7.2%) | $103.50 |
| Trifecta (top three, correct order) - 18/1566 (1.1%) | $493.10 | Trifecta (top three, correct order) - 31/1353 (2.3%) | $190.70 |
| Trifecta (box top three) - 110 (7.0%) | $493.10 | Trifecta (box top three) - 119 (8.8%) | $613.70 |
| Trifecta (four rated runners) - 322 (20.6%) | $5,381.20 | Trifecta (four rated runners) - 278 (20.5%) | $613.70 |
| First 4 (correct order) - 8/1551 (0.5%) | $801.50 | First 4 (correct order) - 9/1335 (0.7%) | $396.90 |
| First 4 (box four rated runners) - 110 (7.1%) | $6,220.70 | First 4 (box four rated runners) - 102 (7.6%) | $3,533.70 |
The stats in these tables are basically self-explanatory. The "Best" results refer to the highest Tabcorp dividend paid on the best priced result for that category during that month.
Wizard Ratings Report week ending 17.3.24
The following tables show the where the winner of each race run last week was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
| Mon 11.3.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | sot | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e |
| Ballarat | g4 | 1 1 2 3. | - 2 - - | 1 1 2 3 | 1 1 1 2 | 3 3 2 3 | 3 2 1. 1 | - - 2 - | - - 3 - | - - - - | | 3 3 2. 1 |
| Coffs Harbour | h8 | 2 1 1 - | 2 1 1 3. | - - - 2. | 2 - - - | 3 - 1 1 | - 3 - - | - - - - | | | | 0 2 3 1 |
| Mackay | s6 | - - 1. - | 1 1 - - | 2 3 1 1 | 3 3 1. 2. | 3 3 - - | 1 1 3 3 | - - - 1 | - 2 3 - | | | 2 2 3. 2 |
| Morphettville | s5 | - - 3 - | - 2 - 3 | 1 1 1 1 | - 3. 2. 1. | 2 - 1 1 | - - 2 1 | - - 3 - | - 2 2 - | 2 - 1 1 | | 1 1 3 5. |
| Orange | g4 | 1 1 - 1 | 1 2. - 2 | - - 2 1. | 1 1 2. - | 1 1 2 - | 3 - - - | - 3 - - | | | | 4 3 0 2. |
| Tue 12.3.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | sot | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e |
| Goulburn | g4 | - 3 2. 2 | - - 3 3 | - - - 1 | - 3 1 - | 3 - 1 1 | 3 3. - 3 | 1 2 - - | - - - 3 | | | 1 0 2 2 |
| Warrnambool | s6 | 2 2 - - | - - - 3 | - 2 3 2 | 3 3 1 - | - - 3 - | 2 2 2 3. | - - 2. 1 | 2 2 1 3. | | | 0 0 2 1 |
| Warwick | g4 | 2 3 1 1 | - - - - | - - - - | 1 1 - 2. | 1 1 2 1 | 2 3 1 3 | 3 2 - 1 | - - - - | - 2 - - | 1 1 2 1 | 3 3 2 4 |
| Wed 13.3.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | sot | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e |
| Belmont Park | g4 | 1 1 2 - | 1 3 3. - | 2 1 3. - | 1 1 1 3 | - - - - | -- 3 2 | 1 1 1 - | | | | 4 4 2 0 |
| Caulfield Heath | g4 | - - - 3. | 3 3 3 - | 1 2 3 - | - - 3 2 | 2 - 1 - | - - - 3 | - - - 1 | - - - - | | | 1 0 1 1 |
| Doomben | s7s6 | 1 1 1 - | - - - - | - - - - | 1 1 2 3 | - 3 - - | - - - - | - - - 2. | 3 2 3 - | | | 2 2 1 0 |
| Randwick Ins | g4g3 | 1 1 3 3 | - - - - | 3 3 2. 1 | 3 3 - - | - 3 - - | - 3 - 3 | - - 2. 3 | - - - 3. | | | 1 1 0 1 |
| Strathalbyn | g4 | - - - 2. | 1 1 1 - | 1 1 - 1 | - - - - | - - - 3 | - - - 3 | - 2. - - | | | | 2 2 1 1 |
| Thu 14.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | sot | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| BEAUDESERT | g4 | - - 2 3 | 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 1. 3. | - - - - | - - 3 - | 3 2 - 2 | 1 1 2 - | 2 1. 2 - | 2 1 - 3 | | 3 5. 2. 1 |
| BENDIGO | g4 | 3 1 2 2 | 3 1 - 3. | 3 - 3 3 | - - - - | 1 1 - - | - - 3. 2. | 2 - 2 2. | - 3 3. - | | | 1 3 0 0 |
| CRANBOURNE | g4 | 2 2 1. 3 | 3 2 1 3 | - - - 3 | - - - - | 2 3 1 - | - - - - | 2 - 1 1 | 1 1 1. - | | | 1 1 5. 1 |
| PINJARRA | g4 | - - - 2 | 1 1 1 3. | - - - - | 3 3 - 3. | 3 3 3. 1 | - - - - | 2 2 - 2. | - - - 3 | | | 1 1 1 1 |
| WAGGA | g4 | - - - - | - - - 3. | - - - - | - - - 1 | 3 2 1 - | - - - - | 1 - - - | | | | 1 0 1 1 |
| WYONG | g4 | 1 1 3 2 | 1 1 - - | 1 1 - - | 1 3 1 - | - - - - | 2 - - - | 1 1 3. - | - - - - | | | 5 4 1 0 |
| Fri 15.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | sot | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| ESPERANCE | s5 | 3 2 3 2 | 1 1 3. - | - - - - | 1 1 2 - | 1 1 1. - | 1 1 1 - | | | | | 4 4 2. 0 |
| KEMBLA GRANGE | s6 | - - - - | - - - - | - - - - | 1 1 2. 2. | 2 - 1 2. | 3 2 - - | - - 2. - | 1 - 3. 1 | | | 2 1 1 1 |
| LAUNCESTON | s5 | - 3 - - | -1 | 1 1 1 - | 2 - 1 - | 1 1 3 2 | - - - - | -3 | - - 2 - | - - 3 2 | | 2 2 2 1 |
| MUSWELLBROOK | g4g3 | 2 2 - - | 2 2 1. 1 | 2 1 - - | 1 3 2. - | - - - - | - - - - | - 2 - - | 2 - 1 2. | | | 1 1 2. 1 |
| PAKENHAM | g4 | - - - - | - 2. 1 2 | 1 2 1 1 | 1 3 1 2 | - - - - | 3 - 1 1 | - - - - | 2 - 3. 3 | 1 1 2 - | | 3 1 4 2 |
| SUNSHINE COAST | aw | 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 1 2 | 2 - - - | 1 2 3 - | 3 2 2 3 | 1 2 1 - | 1 2 2 - | | | | 5 2 3 1 |
| TOWNSVILLE | s5 | - - - - | - - - - | 2 2 - - | -2 | -3 | 2 2 1 1. | 2 2 2 3. | 2 3. 1 2. | | | 0 0 2 1. |
| Sat 16.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | sot | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| ALBANY | g4 | 1 2 - - | - - - 3 | 3 3 1 1 | 3 2 - - | 1 2 3 2. | - - 2. 3. | 2 2 - - | 3 3 - - | | | 2 0 1 1 |
| ASCOT | g4 | 2 2 1. 1 | 3 - 2 - | - 3 - 2. | - 3 2. - | 3 2 2. - | 1 1 1. 2 | 1 1 2. 2. | 3 2 - - | 3 - 1 1 | | 2 2 3. 2 |
| CAULFIELD | g4 | 3 - 2 - | 3 3 3. 2 | 3 - - - | 2 - 1 - | 2 1 - 2 | 1 1 1 1 | - 3 3 3. | 2 2 2 2 | - - - - | 2 1 - - | 1 3 2 1 |
| DARWIN | g | 1 - 1. - | 1 1 2. 3 | 1 2 - - | 1 1 1 2. | - - - - | - 3 - - | | | | | 4 2 2. 0 |
| EAGLE FARM | g4 | 1 1 1 1. | - - - - | 1 1 1. 3 | - - - 1 | - - - - | - - 3 2. | - - 3. - | 1 1 2. - | - - - - | - - - 3. | 3 3 2. 2. |
| GEELONG | g4g3 | - - - - | - 3 - - | - - - 2 | - - - 2 | 3 3 1 - | 1 - - - | 1 2 - - | 2 2. 2 2 | | | 2 0 1 0 |
| GOSFORD | g4 | - - - - | 1 1 1 1 | - 3. - - | - - - 1 | - - 2. 1 | - - - 3 | - - 2 - | 1 - 1 - | | | 2 1 2 3 |
| GUNNEDAH | g4 | - 2 3 1 | - 3 2 2. | 1 1 1 1 | - - - 1 | - 3 3. - | - - 3. 2 | | | | | 1 1 1 3 |
| IPSWICH | g4 | 1 1 1 - | - - 3 3. | 1 3 3. - | - - - - | 3 2 3. 2. | 1 2 3 - | - - - - | 1 2. - 1. | | | 4 1 1 1. |
| KEMPSEY | s6s5 | - - - - | 3 3 3. - | 3 - - - | 1 1 - - | - - - - | 1 3 - - | | | | | 2 1 0 0 |
| MORPHETTVILLE PARKS | g4 | - 2 - 1 | - - 3. - | - - - 2. | 1 1 - 3 | - 3 - - | 2 3 2 - | - - 2. - | 1 1 - - | 2 - 1 - | | 2 2 1 1 |
| ROCKHAMPTON | s5 | 2 2 3 - | - 2 - - | 2 2 1 1 | 3 2 2 - | 1 1 2 - | 2 1 1 1. | | | | | 1 2 2 2. |
| ROSEHILL | s6 | - 3 - - | - 2 - - | 2 2 - 3 | - - 2. 2 | 1 1 1 2 | 1 1 - - | 3 - - 1 | 1 - - - | - - - - | - 3. - - | 3 2 1 1 |
| TOOWOOMBA | g4 | 3 2 3 3. | - - - 3. | - - - - | 2 1 3. - | 2 2 1 1 | 3 2 2 1 | | | | | 0 1 1 2 |
| Sun 17.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | sot | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| COONAMBLE | g4s5 | 2 2 3 - | - - - - | 3 2 1 - | 1 - 1. 1. | - 3 3 1. | - - - - | - 2 3 - | 2 1 2. - | | | 1 1 2. 2. |
| GATTON | s5 | - - - - | - - - - | 1 2. - - | 2 2 1 2 | - 3 - - | 3 - - 2 | - - 2 3. | | | | 1 0 1 0 |
| GERALDTON | g4 | - 3 - 3 | 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 3 - | - - - - | 1 1 1 2. | 2 2 1 - | 1 2 - - | 1 2 - - | | | 5 3 3 1 |
| GRAFTON | s6 | 1 1 1 1 | - - - - | 2 3 2 3 | - - - - | - 3 - - | - - - - | 1 1 1 - | | | | 2 2 2 1 |
| PIONEER PARK | g | 1 1 1 3. | - 3 3 - | 3 2 1 3. | - 3 - 3 | 2 2. 1 1 | 2 - 2. 3. | 3 - 1 1 | - - - 2 | | | 1 1 4 2 |
| PORT LINCOLN | g4 | 2 1 - 2. | - - - - | - - - - | - 3 - - | - - 3. 2 | - - - 3. | 3 2 - 1 | - - - 3. | | | 0 1 0 1 |
| SWAN HILL | g4 | 1 1 1 1. | 2 2 - 3 | 3 - - - | 3 - 1 3. | - - - 3 | 1 1 3. - | 1 1 - - | - 1 2 2. | | | 3 4 2 1. |
| YARRA VALLEY | g4 | - 2. - 1 | - 3 2 1 | 2 - 3 - | 2 - 3. 1 | 1 1 1 2 | 2 3 - 2 | - - - - | 1 - 1. - | | | 2 1 2. 3 |
Header w m h e = Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk
Overall, the result last week for Wrat was 25.5% (97 winners from 379 races.)
From Monday to Sunday the daily results were: (25%, 15%, 26.5%, 25%, 31%, 26.5%, 24%)
A few of the more notable double-figure top-rated (100 pointer) winners last week were:
I Say Boom - Mackay - Monday - $16.00 - Whcp
Knot Secret - Ascot - Saturday - $15.00 - Whcp and Wexpk
Majestic Affair - Wagga - Thursday - $46.00 - Wexpk
Sonny Fella - Gosford - Saturday - $31.00 -Wexpk
Love My Louis - Mackay - Monday - $21.00 - Wexpk
The weekly schedule for this Wizard Ratings Report is:
Monday - Report on the previous week
Tuesday - Monday Report and Wizard Rating (Wrat) discussion
Wednesday - Tuesday Report and Wizard Plus Model Rating (Wmod) discussion
Thursday - Wednesday Report and Wizard Plus Handicap Rating (Whcp) discussion
Friday - Thursday Report and Wizard Plus Expected Peak Rating (Wexpk) discussion
Saturday - Friday Report and Wizard Plus Jockey, Filter, Negatives discussion
Sunday - Saturday Report and Wizard Panel discussion
The tables show the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk in that order. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
For example, a cell entry of 1 2. 3 would read as:
.. 1 .. rated 1st (100 pointer) on Wrat
.. - .. not rated in the top three on Wmod
.. 2. .. rated equal 2nd on Whcp (the full stop after the numeric indicates it was rated equal 2nd)
.. 3 .. rated 3rd on Wexpk
As well as the results for individual races there a summary for each meeting which shows the number of winners for each of the Wizard and Wizard Plus ratings. An entry showing '4 3 0 2.' would be read as follows:
.. 4 .. 4 of the winners were rated 1st on Wrat
.. 3 .. 3 of the winners were rated 1st on Wmod
.. 0 .. no winner was rated 1st on Whcp
.. 2. .. 2 winners were rated 1st on Wexpk but at least one of these was an equal top-rater
With respect to equal-rated runners: This does not happen with Wrat as we have an algorithm that separates runners by adjusting the base ratings by career-record and form-related factors. The same procedure is applied with the Wmod, but not as extensively, and occasionally equal-rated horses could appear, but infrequently.
Where equal-rated runners are more common is in the ratings analysis that is basically pure weight handicapping, the Whcp and Wexpk analyses.
Wrat (Wizard Rating)
This Wrat ratings assessment takes into account relative weight handicapping advantage and is adjusted (weighted) for the following factors: the quality of current form, barrier position, form cycle, recency, distance ability, consistency, jockey, and trainer.
To provide you with a frame of reference as to the performance of the Wrat over time, the table below sets out the results for Wrat over the past two racing seasons and up to March 17 for this current 2023-2024 season.
Table Wizard Rating (Wrat) for 21-22, 22-23, and 23-24 seasons
| Wrat - 1 August 2021 to 31 July 2022 | Tab Div | Wrat - 01 August 2022 to 31 July 2023 | Tab Div |
| | Best | | Best |
| Top Rated Winner - 4510/16804 (26.8%) | $31.50 | Top Rated Winner - 4452/17137 (26.0%) | $21.10 |
| Winner (top two rated) - 7470 (44.5%) | $48.80 | Winner (top two rated) - 7459 (43.5%) | $51.00 |
| Winner (four rated runners) - 11462 (68.2%) | $58.40 | Winner (four rated runners) - 11670 (68.1%) | $62.90 |
| Quinella (top two rated) - 1943/16756 (11.6%) | $54.10 | Quinella (top two rated) - 1914/17099 (11.2%) | $63.40 |
| Quinella (top three rated) - 4391 (26.2%) | $98.50 | Quinella (top three rated) - 4352 (25.5%) | $267.20 |
| Quinella (four rated runners) - 6858 (40.9%) | $172.30 | Quinella (four rated runners) - 6949 (40.6%) | $289.80 |
| Exacta (top two rated) - 1078 (6.4%) | $135.90 | Exacta (top two rated) - 1043 (6.1%) | $96.10 |
| Trifecta (top three, correct order) - 294/16671 (1.8%) | $291.30 | Trifecta (top three, correct order) - 298/17020 (1.8%) | $905.80 |
| Trifecta (box top three) - 1266 (7.6%) | $725.00 | Trifecta (box top three) - 1256 (7.4%) | $905.80 |
| Trifecta (four rated runners) - 3392 (20.3%) | $2,374.70 | Trifecta (four rated runners) - 3389 (19.9%) | $2,487.20 |
| First 4 (correct order) - 94/16489 (0.6%) | $1,505.70 | First 4 (correct order) - 110/16856 (0.7%) | $1,908.30 |
| First 4 (box four rated runners) - 1209 (7.3%) | $4,396.20 | First 4 (box four rated runners) - 1179 (7.0%) | $7,469.80 |
| Wrat - 01 August 2023 to 17 March 2024 | Tab Div |
| | Best |
| Top Rated Winner - 2854/10912 (26.2%) | $32.30 |
| Winner (top two rated) - 4719 (43.2%) | $45.70 |
| Winner (four rated runners) - 7448 (68.3%) | $79.80 |
| Quinella (top two rated) - 1177/10883 (10.8%) | $72.10 |
| Quinella (top three rated) - 2800 (25.7%) | $133.80 |
| Quinella (four rated runners) - 4436 (40.8%) | $249.60 |
| Exacta (top two rated) - 628 (5.8%) | $215.80 |
| Trifecta (top three, correct order) - 187/10836 (1.7%) | $493.10 |
| Trifecta (box top three) - 824 (7.6%) | $1,227.40 |
| Trifecta (four rated runners) - 2242 (20.7%) | $5,381.20 |
| First 4 (correct order) - 73/10738 (0.7%) | $801.50 |
| First 4 (box four rated runners) - 792 (7.4%) | $6,220.70 |
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com