Wizard Daily Report and Research - Thursday, 21 March 2024.
Wizard Ratings Report - Wizard Plus Whcp Report
- Wizard Ratings Report for Wednesday, March 20
- Wizard Plus Ratings (Whcp) Report
Wizard Ratings Report for the meetings on Wednesday, March 20
The following table shows the where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
| Wed 20.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| BELMONT PARK | g4 | 3 2 2 2 | 3 3 - - | - - - - | - - - - | - - - - | 1 3 - 2 | - - - - | | | | 1 0 0 0 |
| CANBERRA | s7 | 1 2 2 3 | - - 3. - | 3 3. - 2 | 3 - 1 1 | - - - 1 | 1 1 1 2 | 1 1 3. - | | | | 3 2 2 2 |
| DOOMBEN | s7s5 | 3 2 1 2. | 1 1 2 3. | 1 1 - - | - - - 3 | 1 1 - 1 | - - 3 - | - - - - | | | | 3 3 1 1 |
| MURRAY BRIDGE | s5 | - 2 - - | 3 1 2 3 | 1 1 1. 3. | 2 1 - - | - - - - | 1 1 3 - | 3 1 3. - | | | | 2 5 1. 0 |
| SANDOWN-HILLSIDE | s5g4 | 1 1. 1 3 | 3 - 1 - | 3 3 2. - | - - 2. - | - - - - | - - - - | - 2. 2 3 | - - 2. - | | | 1 1. 2 0 |
| WYONG | g4s5 | 1 1 2 2 | 2 1 2 2 | - - - - | 2 - 1 1 | 1 2 - - | 3 3. 1 - | - - - - | 1 - - - | | | 3 2 2 1 |
Header w m h e = Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk
The table shows the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk in that order. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
For example, a cell entry of 1 2. 3 would read as:
.. 1 .. rated 1st (100 pointer) on Wrat
.. - .. not rated in the top three on Wmod
.. 2. .. rated equal 2nd on Whcp (the full stop after the numeric indicates it was rated equal 2nd)
.. 3 .. rated 3rd on Wexpk
As well as the results for individual races there a summary for each meeting which shows the number of winners for each of the Wizard and Wizard Plus ratings. An entry showing '4 3 0 2.' would be read as follows:
.. 4 .. 4 of the winners were rated 1st on Wrat
.. 3 .. 3 of the winners were rated 1st on Wmod
.. 0 .. no winner was rated 1st on Whcp
.. 2. .. 2 winners were rated 1st on Wexpk but at least one of these was an equal top-rater
With respect to equal-rated runners: This does not happen with Wrat as we have an algorithm that separates runners by adjusting the base ratings by career-record and form-related factors. The same procedure is applied with the Wmod, but not as extensively, and occasionally equal-rated horses could appear, but infrequently.
Where equal-rated runners are more common is in the ratings analysis that is basically pure weight handicapping, the Whcp and Wexpk analyses.
Wizard Whcp - available in Wizard Plus
The Wizard Whcp assessment is an almost pure relative weight assessment with minimal input from other factors. The only adjustments to the base ratings analysis involve bonuses or penalties for form cycle (expected improvement, deterioration), consistency, barrier position, and jockey ability.
The following tables shows the results of WHcp for the 2022-2023 season, for all gallops races run in Australia that were covered by Tab.
One thing to note about this Whcp assessment is that equal top-rated runners can occur. That is, you can have more than one 100 pointer in a race. With this traditional relative weight handicapping analysis we do not employ a supplementary adjustment to ensure that there is only one 100 point (top rated) runner in a race as we do for Wrat.
To provide a full picture two tables are included here.
This first table includes all Whcp 100 pointers, and covers all races irrespective of the number of equal Whcp 100 pointers present.
Percentage of Whcp selections and winners in SP odds range all Whcp races, all 100 pointers
| 2022-2023 | win % | odds-on | | | 2.00-5.99 | | | 6.00-9.99 | | | 10.00+ | | |
| Whcp ALL | | seln | wins | iv | seln | wins | iv | seln | wins | iv | seln | wins | iv |
| Metropolitan | 17.7% | 4.5% | 13.9% | 3.1 | 46.4% | 65.6% | 1.4 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 0.6 | 27.7% | 6.8% | 0.2 |
| Provincial | 20.2% | 7.6% | 21.5% | 2.8 | 48.8% | 60.5% | 1.2 | 20.2% | 11.1% | 0.6 | 23.4% | 6.9% | 0.3 |
| Country | 20.9% | 8.4% | 23.1% | 2.8 | 49.7% | 61.9% | 1.2 | 19.7% | 10.7% | 0.5 | 22.3% | 4.4% | 0.2 |
This second table reports on only those races in which there is a single Whcp 100 pointer present, after scratchings.
Percentage of Whcp selections and winners in SP odds range when only one 100 pointer in a race
| 2022-2023 | win % | odds-on | | | 2.00-5.99 | | | 6.00-9.99 | | | 10.00+ | | |
| Whcp 1x100 pointer | | seln | wins | iv | seln | wins | iv | seln | wins | iv | seln | wins | iv |
| Metropolitan | 18.7% | 5.4% | 16.8% | 3.1 | 48.1% | 65.4% | 1.4 | 19.8% | 12.2% | 0.6 | 26.7% | 5.6% | 0.2 |
| Provincial | 21.2% | 8.8% | 24.6% | 2.8 | 49.9% | 59.5% | 1.2 | 19.2% | 9.8% | 0.5 | 22.0% | 6.1% | 0.3 |
| Country | 22.3% | 9.4% | 24.9% | 2.6 | 51.0% | 61.5% | 1.2 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 0.5 | 20.6% | 4.0% | 0.2 |
The above results have been sub-divided into Metropolitan, Provincial, and Country.
The results are broken down into four Starting Price odds categories: odds-on, $2.00 to $5.90, $6.00 to $9.90, $10.00 and longer.
Reading a line from left to right:
Location - metropolitan
Win% - overall win strike rate of Whcp in the location
Selns - Percentage of 100 pointer selections that were within the SP odds category
Wins - Percentage of 100 pointer winners that were within the SP odds category
IV - The impact Value applicable the SP odds category.
Example:
Location Win% odds-on $2.00-$5.90 $6.00-$9.90 $10.00 +
Selns Wins IV Selns Wins IV Selns Wins IV Selns Wins IV
Provincial 25.7% - 12.0% 27.0% 2.3 - 67.0% 66.0% 1.0 - 15.0% 5.5% 0.35 - 6.0% 1.5%% 0.25
So, for the period under review, at the Provincial meetings:
- The win strike rate of was 25.7%
- 12.0% of the 100 pointer selections started at odds-on
- 27.0% of the 100 pointer winners started at odds-on
- The impact value of 2.3 showed that these odds-on 100 pointers won 2.3 times their fair share of the races won by the group as a whole
- 67.0% of the 100 pointer selections started at odds ranging from $2.00 to $5.90
- 66.0% of the 100 pointer winners started at odds ranging from $2.00 to $5.90
- The impact value of 1.0 showed that these $2.00-$5.90 100 pointers won their fair share of the races
- Etc etc etc
There is not a great difference in terms of win percentages between the two betting options:
- Bet all Whcp 100 pointers irrespective of the number of equal 100 pointers
- Bet only in those races where there is only one Whcp 100 pointer, after scratchings.
In terms of win percentage the provincials and country results again outperform the metropolitan,
Again, for the 'average' punter there is no point trying to engineer value out of odds-on bets. There is some real potential to exploit opportunities in the $6.00 and longer categories, and this will be discussed later. From a betting perspective the attractiveness of the $2.00 to $5.90 odds range remains noteworthy.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com