Wizard Daily Report and Research - Sunday, 24 March 2024.
Wizard Ratings Report - Wizard Plus Factorials
- Wizard Ratings - Results for Saturday, March 23
- Wizard Plus Factorials - Trainers
*** Tomorrow *** - Combining Wizard Ratings and Wizard Plus Factorials
Wizard Ratings Results for the meetings on Saturday, March 23
The table below shows the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk in that order.
Table - Wizard Ratings Results for Saturday, March 23
| Sat 23.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| ASCOT | g4 | 2 3 1 - | 2 1 - - | - - 2 - | - - 2 1 | - - - - | 1 - 3 3. | - - 2. - | - - - 3. | - - 3 3. | | 1 1 1 1 |
| BENALLA | g4g3 | 1 1 1 2 | - - - - | - 3. - - | - - - 3. | - - - - | - - - 1. | 1 2 1 1. | | | | 2 1 2 2. |
| EAGLE FARM | g4 | - 3 - - | - - - - | - - - 1 | - - - - | 2 2 1 - | - - - - | 1 1 1 2. | - - - - | 1 1 1 3. | | 2 2 3 1 |
| GOLD COAST POLY | aw | 3 - 1. 3 | 1 2 1 1 | 1 2 3 - | 1 1 - 3 | 2 1 2. - | - - - - | - - - 3 | | | | 3 2 2. 1 |
| KEMBLA GRANGE | h8 | - - - - | 3 3 - 3. | - - - 3. | 3 - 3 2 | - - 1 3. | - - 2. - | 1 1 - - | 1 1 - - | | | 2 2 1 0 |
| MOONEE VALLEY | g4 | 3 2 3 3. | - - - - | 3 2 - - | - - - - | - - - - | - - - - | - - - - | 1 1 1 1 | 2 1 - - | 3 3 - - | 1 2 1 1 |
| MORPHETTVILLE | g4 | 2 2 1 3. | - - - - | - 3 - - | 1 1 1 1 | 3 - 1 1 | - - 2. 1. | - 3. - 1 | 1 2 2 1 | - - - - | | 2 1 3 5. |
| PINGRUP | g | 3 3 3 1 | 2 3. 1 2. | - - - 3 | - 3 - - | - - 3 - | 3 2. 3 2 | | | | | 0 0 1 1 |
| ROSEHILL | s5g4 | 1 1 - - | 1 - - - | 3 1 1 2. | 2 1 1 - | 1 1 2 2 | 2 1 2. 2. | - - - - | - - 2 1. | - - 2 - | - - 3. 3 | 3 5 2 1. |
| SAPPHIRE COAST | s6 | - 3. 3. 3. | 1 1 3 3. | 1 2 - 3 | - 3 - - | 3 - 3. 2. | 1 1 2 2. | | | | | 3 2 0 0 |
| TOOWOOMBA | g4 | 3 2 2. - | - - - - | 3 - 1 1. | 2 3 - - | 1 1 2. 1 | 3 3 - 3. | - - - - | | | | 1 1 1 2. |
Header - w m h e = Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk
The table above shows the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk in that order. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
For example, a cell entry of 1 2. 3 would read as:
.. 1 .. rated 1st (100 pointer) on Wrat
.. - .. not rated in the top three on Wmod
.. 2. .. rated equal 2nd on Whcp (the full stop after the numeric indicates it was rated equal 2nd)
.. 3 .. rated 3rd on Wexpk
As well as the results for individual races there a summary for each meeting which shows the number of winners for each of the Wizard and Wizard Plus ratings. An entry showing '4 3 0 2.' would be read as follows:
.. 4 .. 4 of the winners were rated 1st on Wrat
.. 3 .. 3 of the winners were rated 1st on Wmod
.. 0 .. no winner was rated 1st on Whcp
.. 2. .. 2 winners were rated 1st on Wexpk but at least one of these was an equal top-rater
With respect to equal-rated runners: This does not happen with Wrat as we have an algorithm that separates runners by adjusting the base ratings by career-record and form-related factors. The same procedure is applied with the Wmod, but not as extensively, and occasionally equal-rated horses could appear, but infrequently.
Where equal-rated runners are more common is in the ratings analysis that is basically pure weight handicapping, the Whcp and Wexpk analyses.
Wizard Plus Factorials - Trainers who out-perform
We have found that some trainers 'out-perform' when Wizard Plus 'factorials' are in play.
For example, when horses were in the $2.00 to $5.90 starting price odds range:
David Jolly (SA) has shown a profit in 4 of the past 5 years with horses qualified as Wjktr, with a 36% strike rate, which returned an overall 27% profit on turnover.
Neville Parnham (WA) has shown a profit in 4 of the past 5 years with horses qualified as Wfilt, with a 40.5% strike rate, which returned an overall 50% profit on turnover.
Brett Robb (NSW) has shown a profit in 4 of the past 5 years with horses qualified as Wneg, with a 41% strike rate, which returned an overall 54% profit on turnover.
There are numerous trainers around Australia showing similar results and I will highlight some more in coming days.
Wjktr
This assessment is designed to reflect the quality of the recent performance of the jockey/trainer combinations that are relevant to the race. When a level of performance exceeds our current benchmark the runner will have an asterisk placed in the Wjktr column. If more than one combination in the race meets or exceeds the Wizard benchmark then each will earn an asterisk.
Wfilt
The Wizard also examines and reports on some key positives and negatives facing each runner in the race.
The ten major factors covered in this analysis are Wrat, age, form cycle (runs from a spell), consistency, form last 12 months, jockey, trainer, running style, distance, wet track form. We apply minimum requirements to each of these factors, and when a runner meets or exceeds that standard it earns a positive rating, when it fails to meet the standard it earns a negative rating.
Wneg
The Wizard (Wneg) analysis of negative factors facing each runner is similar in concept to the Wizard filter analysis (Wfilt), but is more demanding. With Wneg it is a binary decision, either the factor is negative, or it is not.
There are 10 factors considered age, form cycle (run from spell), jockey, trainer, Wrat ranking, consistency, quality of form in last 12 months, distance, running style, and class change.
What is highlighted in the Wizard Plus Panel are any runners that have zero negatives for this race.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com
Save