Wizard Daily Report and Research - Sunday, 31 March 2024.
- Wizard Ratings Results for Saturday, March 30
- Trainer and Jockey Statistics Report - Chris Waller (NEW)
Wizard Ratings Results for the meetings on Saturday, March 30
The table below shows the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk in that order.
Table - Wizard Ratings Results for Saturday, March 30
| Sat 30.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| ASCOT | g4 | 2 1 3 2 | - - - - | 1 2. 1. - | - - - 1 | 1 1 - - | 2 3 - - | 2 2. - - | 1 1 1 1 | 3 - 1. - | | 3 3 3. 2 |
| BEAUDESERT | h10 | - - - - | - - - 2 | - 2 - 1 | 1 1 1 1. | 2 1 - 3 | - - - - | | | | | 1 2 1 2. |
| CLARE | g4 | 3 3 - - | 1 1 1 1. | 1 3 1 2 | 3 - - - | 1 1 1. - | - - - - | 1 1 2. - | | | | 4 3 3. 1. |
| FLEMINGTON | g4g3 | - - 3 - | 1 3. 3. - | 1 3 3. 3. | 2 3 1 1 | 2 1 3. - | - 3 - - | 1 1 - - | - - - - | - - - - | 2 - - 3. | 3 2 1 1 |
| GATTON | s7 | 1 1 2 1 | 3 2 2. 1 | 1 2 1 2. | 2 1 - - | 1 1 2 - | - - 2 - | 3 2 - 3 | | | | 3 3 1 2 |
| KERANG | g4g3 | 2 3 - 2. | - - 2 - | - - - - | 3 - 1. - | - 2. - - | 1 1 - - | - - - 1 | - 2 - - | | | 1 1 1. 1 |
| MORUYA | s5g4 | 3 - 3 - | - - - 1 | 1 1 - - | - 2 - - | 1 - - - | 1 1 3 - | | | | | 3 2 0 1 |
| OAKBANK | s5 | 1 1 1 - | 2 1 2. 2 | 1 3 1 2. | 2 3 1 3. | - 2 - - | 2 - 1. - | - - - - | - 3 - - | - 2. - - | | 2 2 4. 0 |
| PIONEER PARK | g | 3 3 - - | - - 2. - | 3 3 3 3 | 1 1 2 - | 2 2 - 2 | 2 - 1 - | - - - - | - 3. - - | | | 1 1 1 0 |
| ROSEHILL | s5g4 | - - 2 1 | 1 1 2. 3 | 1 - - - | 1 1 1 - | - 3 3. 3 | - - - - | 1 1 1 2 | - - - - | 1 1 - - | 2 1 - 2 | 5 5 2 1 |
| WARRACKNABEAL | g4g3 | 2 2 3 - | 1 1 2 1 | - - - - | - - - - | 1 2 2. 2. | - - 3 2. | 2 2 1 1. | - - - - | | | 2 1 1 2. |
| WYONG | g4 | 1 - - - | 1 1 2 - | 2 2 1. 3 | 3 - 1 1 | - - - - | 2 3. 1. 1 | 3 - 2. 2. | 1 1 - - | | | 3 2 3. 2 |
Header w m h e = Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk
The table above shows the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk in that order. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
For example, a cell entry of 1 2. 3 would read as:
.. 1 .. rated 1st (100 pointer) on Wrat
.. - .. not rated in the top three on Wmod
.. 2. .. rated equal 2nd on Whcp (the full stop after the numeric indicates it was rated equal 2nd)
.. 3 .. rated 3rd on Wexpk
As well as the results for individual races there a summary for each meeting which shows the number of winners for each of the Wizard and Wizard Plus ratings. An entry showing '4 3 0 2.' would be read as follows:
.. 4 .. 4 of the winners were rated 1st on Wrat
.. 3 .. 3 of the winners were rated 1st on Wmod
.. 0 .. no winner was rated 1st on Whcp
.. 2. .. 2 winners were rated 1st on Wexpk but at least one of these was an equal top-rater
With respect to equal-rated runners: This does not happen with Wrat as we have an algorithm that separates runners by adjusting the base ratings by career-record and form-related factors. The same procedure is applied with the Wmod, but not as extensively, and occasionally equal-rated horses could appear, but infrequently.
Where equal-rated runners are more common is in the ratings analysis that is basically pure weight handicapping, the Whcp and Wexpk analyses.
Trainers and Jockey Statistics Report - Record with 100 pointer, favourite, when $2.00-$5.90
Today starts a new series of articles examining trainer-jockey combinations under three conditions:
- When the horse is the Wrat 100 pointer
- When the horse runs as the race favourite
- When the horse starts at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
The first trainer in this series is Chris Waller.
The overall stats for Chris Waller in this $2.00 to $5.90 odds range:
- When the Wizard Rating (Wrat) is 100 = 25.1%
- When the Starting Price Favourite = 28.0%
- All runners in the odds range = 22.0%
The statistics cover the stable's runners throughout Australia. With respect to Chris Waller that is principally New South Wales, Queensland, and Victoria.
The time period covered is 1 August 2022 to 30 March 2024, so last season and the current season. (Older jockey combination stats not really relevant.)
| 1.8.22 - 30.3.24 | | | 100 | | | | sp fav | | | | | 2.00-5.90 | | | |
| Chris Waller with | win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp | win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp | Win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp |
| Brenton Avdulla | 10.0% | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12.5% | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4.5% | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| Blake Shinn | 25.0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16.5% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8.5% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| Brett Prebble | 31.0% | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 60.0% | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 33.0% | 11 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| Ben Thompson | 50.0% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 21.5% | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| Craig Williams | 20.0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14.0% | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 11.0% | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Damien Lane | 66.0% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 50.0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 33.0% | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Damien Thornton | 20.0% | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 44.0% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 28.5% | 8 | 5 | 6 | 9 |
| Dylan Gibbons | 50.0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 57.0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 44.5% | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Hugh Bowman | 12.5% | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14.0% | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 11.0% | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| Joao Moreira | 37.5% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 25.0% | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 28.5% | 6 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| Jason Collett | 7.0% | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 16.0% | 3 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19.5% | 8 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| James McDonald | 25.0% | 22 | 23 | 12 | 32 | 23.5% | 33 | 31 | 16 | 61 | 21.5% | 56 | 47 | 32 | 123 |
| James Orman | 34.0% | 13 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 42.5% | 23 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 25.5% | 31 | 18 | 17 | 56 |
| Jye McNeil | 14.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 14.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7.0% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| Kerrin McEvoy | 29.5% | 8 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 32.0% | 10 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 22.5% | 17 | 5 | 14 | 40 |
| Lee Magorrian | 7.5% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 27.0% | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15.0% | 6 | 8 | 6 | 20 |
| Michael Dee | 43.0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 60.0% | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 30.0% | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Mark Du Plessis | 30.0% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 20.0% | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 20.0% | 5 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| Nash Rawiller | 33.0% | 11 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 40.0% | 14 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 31.0% | 23 | 14 | 10 | 27 |
| Ryan Maloney | 41.5% | 5 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 38.5% | 5 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 38.5% | 10 | 5 | 1 | 10 |
| Tommy Berry | 30.0% | 6 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 34.5% | 10 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 28.0% | 18 | 15 | 8 | 23 |
| Tyler Schiller | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 16.5% | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13.5% | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| William Pike | 12.5% | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0.0% | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12.0% | 2 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| Zac Lloyd | 33.0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 42.5% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 50.0% | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com