Wizard weekly results summary - Trainer and Jockey Statistics

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Monday, 1 April 2024.

  • Wizard Ratings Results for week ending March 31
  • Trainer and Jockey Statistics Report - Bjorn Baker

Wizard Ratings Report week ending Sunday, March 31

The following tables show the where the winner of each race run last week was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.

 

Mon 25.03.24 Race 1Race 2Race 3Race 4Race 5Race 6Race 7Race 8Race 9Race 10meeting
 SOTw m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew  m  h  e
BEAUMONTs7s53 3 2 -- - 3 -3 3 3. 3- - - -- - - -1 - 1 3.- - - 3.   1  0  1  0
GRAFTONs51 1 - -3 3 3. 22 2 1 -1 1 1. -- - - 2.1 1 - -1 1 2 2   4  4  2.  0
WARRNAMBOOLs5g4- 2 - 22 - 2 - - - - 2 1 1 3 -3 1 - 3.- 1 - -3 3 3 - 1  3  0  0
Tue 26.03.24 Race 1Race 2Race 3Race 4Race 5Race 6Race 7Race 8Race 9Race 10meeting
 SOTw m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew  m  h  e
GEELONGg43 3 3 31 1 1 21 1 1 11 1 1 12 1 1 1- - - 1.3 - 1. 3.- - - -  3  4  5.   4.
ROCKHAMPTONs7h81 1 1 11 1 3 11 1 3 -3 2 3. -3 1 2 31 2 3. 1- - - 1.   4  4  1  4.
TAREEh83 2 - -2 2 1 -2 2 2. -1 1 1 -3 2 1 -2 - 1 2.2 1 - -- - 3. 3  1  2  4  0
Wed 27.03.24 Race 1Race 2Race 3Race 4Race 5Race 6Race 7Race 8Race 9Race 10meeting
 SOTw m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew  m  h  e
GERALDTONg31 1 1 2.- 3 3. -2 - 1 21 1 1 11 2 1. -1 1 1. 2.3 3 2 -   4  3  5.  1
PIONEER PARKg3 3 1 12 1 - -2 2 1 -- - - -3 3 2 12 3 1 1- - - -   0  1  3  3
RANDWICK INSg43 3 3 3- - - 1- - - -3 - - -2 1 3 -2 1 - -- - 3. -2 2 1 -  0  2  1  1
SANDOWN-LAKESIDEg4- 3. 3. 3.1 2. - -2 1 3 -1 1 1 -- 3 3. 2- - 3 -1 1 1 2.1 2 - -  4  3  2  0
STRATHALBYNg43 - 3 -- - - -1 1 2 1- - 3 1- - - -1 1 1. -1 1 1 -   3  3  2.  2
Thu 28.03.24 Race 1Race 2Race 3Race 4Race 5Race 6Race 7Race 8R9R10meeting
 SOTw m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h e  w  m  h  e
HAWKESBURYg4- - 3 -- - - 3.- - 3. 2- - - -- - - -2 2 1 3.1 1 3 -1 1 - -  2  2  1  0
PAKENHAMg41 1 1 3.2 2 2 2.2 1 2. 22 2 3. 2.1 - 2 -2 1 2 -- - 3 2.   2  3  1  0
TOOWOOMBAh8s62 1 2. -- 3 - -2 - 1 31 3 - -1 1 2 3.- 3 - 21 3 1 -   3  2  2  0
WAGGAg4- 3 - 2.2 1 1. 3.1 3 - 11 1 - 31 2 2 -2 1 - 1- - 3 -   3  3  1.  2
Fri 29.03.24 Race 1Race 2Race 3Race 4Race 5Race 6Race 7Race 8Race 9Race 10meeting
 SOTw m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew  m  h  e
ASCOTg4- - - 13 - 2 -- - - -- - - -2 1 2. -- - - 1- - - -2 1 3. -  0  2  0  2
CANBERRAg41 1 2 12 1. 1. 31 2 - 3.1 1 1 11 1 2 21 1 1 2- - - -- - - -- - - 1 5  5.  3.  3
CRANBOURNEg4g31 1 1 1- - - -1 3 - 3- 3 3. -2 1 2 2- - - 23 - 1 13 - - -  2  2  2  2
KALGOORLIEg41 1 3 2.3 2 1 22 3 1 1- - - -3 2 1 13 2 2 32 2 1. 3   1  1  4.  2
LAUNCESTONs5g43 3. 1. 3- 2 2 -2 3 1 1- - - 3- - 3. -1 2 - 1.2 - 1 -- - 3 1  1 0  3.  3.
YARRA VALLEYg4g3- 2 - -1 3 - -1 1 1. 1- 2 1. 11 3 - -1 1 3 -- - 2 -1 1 - -  5  3  2.  2
Sat 30.03.24 Race 1Race 2Race 3Race 4Race 5Race 6Race 7Race 8Race 9Race 10meeting
 SOTw m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew  m  h  e
ASCOTg42 1 3 2- - - -1 2. 1. -- - - 11 1 - -2 3 - -2 2. - -1 1 1 13 - 1. - 3  3  3.  2
BEAUDESERTh10- - - -- - - 2- 2 - 11 1 1 1.2 1 - 3- - - -    1  2  1  2.
CLAREg43 3 - -1 1 1 1.1 3 1 23 - - -1 1 1. -- - - -1 1 2. -   4  3  3.   1.
FLEMINGTONg4g3- - 3 -1 3. 3. -1 3 3. 3.2 3 1 12 1 3. -- 3 - -1 1 - -- - - -- - - -2 - - 3.3  2  1  1
GATTONs71 1 2 13 2 2. 11 2 1 2.2 1 - -1 1 2 -- - 2 -3 2 - 3   3  3  1  2
KERANGg4g32 3 - 2.- - 2 -- - - -3 - 1. -- 2. - -1 1 - -- - - 1- 2 - -  1  1  1.  1
MORUYAs5g43 - 3 -- - - 11 1 - -- 2 - -1 - - -1 1 3 -    3  2  0  1
OAKBANKs51 1 1 -2 1 2. 21 3 1 2.2 3 1 3.- 2 - -2 - 1. -- - - -- 3 - -- 2. - - 2  2  4.  0
PIONEER PARKg3 3 - -- - 2. -3 3 3 31 1 2 -2 2 - 22 - 1 -- - - -- 3. - -  1  1  1  0
ROSEHILLs5g4- - 2 11 1 2. 31 - - -1 1 1 -- 3 3. 3- - - -1 1 1 2- - - -1 1 - -2 1 - 25  5  2  1
WARRACKNABEALg4g32 2 3 -1 1 2 1- - - -- - - -1 2 2. 2.- - 3 2.2 2 1 1.- - - -  2  1  1  2.
WYONGg41 - - -1 1 2 -2 2 1. 33 - 1 1- - - -2 3. 1. 13 - 2. 2.1 1 - -  3  2  3.  2
Sun 31.03.24 Race 1Race 2Race 3Race 4Race 5Race 6Race 7Race 8Race 9Race 10meeting
 SOTw m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew m h ew  m  h  e
ALBANYg43 - 2 -- 2. - 22 - 1 2- 3 - -- 3. - 23 - 1 2.3 3 - -- - - -  0  0  2  0
MORNINGTONg42 2 2 12 2 3. 2.1 1 1 2- - - 2.2 1 - -3 3 - 1.- - - -   1  2  1  2.
MUDGEEg42 2 2 21 1 2. -1 2 1 23 3 1 2.- - - -- 2 - 21 1 - -   3  2  2  0
NOWRAs63 2 - 21 1 3. -- - - -3 3 3 -2 - - -1 - - -    2  1  0  0
PENOLAg4- - 3. 1- - - 3- 3 - -3 - - -- - - -- - - -3 2 - -1 1 2 -  1  1  0  1
STAWELLg4g33 3 2 3.1 1 1 1- - - -- 3 1 -- - - -3 3 - -3 3 - -2 - - -  1   1  2  1
SUNSHINE COAST POLYaw1 1 1 11 1 - -2 - 1 23 2 2 -- 3 2 3.3 2 3 11 2 3 -1 1 - 1  4  3  2  3

Header w m h e =  Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk

Overall, the result last week for Wrat was 30.0% (92 winners from 306 races.) 

From Monday to Sunday the daily results were: (28.5%, 35.0%, 30.0%, 34.5%, 29.0%, 32.5%, 23.0%).

A few of the more notable double-figure top-rated (100 pointer) winners last week were:

CourseDateHorseSP Win 
OAKBANK30/03/2024Apache Gunship$14.00Wrat & Whcp
ASCOT30/03/2024Exceltrain$26.00Whcp
GRAFTON25/03/2024Ardonaugh$13.00Whcp
CANBERRA29/03/2024Starliv$27.00Wexpk
PENOLA31/03/2024Don't Matta Me$13.00Wexpk

 

The day by day tables show the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk in that order. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.

For example, a cell entry of 1 2. 3 would read as:

.. 1 .. rated 1st (100 pointer) on Wrat

.. - .. not rated in the top three on Wmod

.. 2. .. rated equal 2nd on Whcp (the full stop after the numeric indicates it was rated equal 2nd)

.. 3 .. rated 3rd on Wexpk

As well as the results for individual races there a summary for each meeting which shows the number of winners for each of the Wizard and Wizard Plus ratings. An entry showing '4 3 0 2.' would be read as follows:

.. 4 .. 4 of the winners were rated 1st on Wrat

.. 3 .. 3 of the winners were rated 1st on Wmod

.. 0 .. no winner was rated 1st on Whcp

.. 2. .. 2 winners were rated 1st on Wexpk but at least one of these was an equal top-rater

With respect to equal-rated runners: This does not happen with Wrat as we have an algorithm that separates runners by adjusting the base ratings by career-record and form-related factors. The same procedure is applied with the Wmod, but not as extensively, and occasionally equal-rated horses could appear, but infrequently.

Where equal-rated runners are more common is in the ratings analysis that is basically pure weight handicapping, the Whcp and Wexpk analyses.

 

Trainers and Jockey Report - Record with 100 pointer, fav, $2.00-$5.90 - Bjorn Baker

This series of articles examines trainer-jockey combinations under three conditions:

  • When the horse is the Wrat 100 pointer and started at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
  • When the horse runs as the race favourite at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
  • When the horse starts at odds between $2.00 and $5.90

Today's trainer is Bjorn Baker.

The overall stats for Bjorn Baker in this $2.00 to $5.90 odds range:

  • When the Wizard Rating (Wrat) is 100 = 28.8%
  • When the Starting Price Favourite = 31.6%
  • All runners in the odds range = 22.4%

The statistics cover the stable's runners throughout Australia. 

The time covered is 1 August 2022 to 30 March 2024, so last season and the current season. (Older results for trainer-jockey combinations not really relevant.)

1.8.22 to 31.3.24 100    fav    2-5.9   
Bjorn Baker withwin%1st2nd3rdunpwin%1st2nd3rdunpWin%1st2nd3rdunp
Adam Hyeronimus100.0%1000---- 28.5%2104
Andrew Calder (A J)20.0%111220.0%121118.0%2225
Alysha Collett50.0%10110.0%002116.5%1023
Amy McLucas33.0%100250.0%210125.0%1102
Angus Villiers50.0%1010100.0%100033.0%1110
Anna Roper0.0%020033.0%120025.0%1201
Ashley Morgan12.5%10160.0%014419.0%54413
Brandon Lerena50.0%312043.0%303121.0%4474
Brad Rawiller20.0%111233.0%111022.0%2223
Dylan Gibbons40.0%411436.0%430429.0%93217
Joshua Parr14.5%131222.0%231321.5%6679
Jason Collett40.0%230033.0%221135.5%5531
James McDonald33.0%110120.0%12029.0%1415
James Orman50.0%100166.0%200133.0%1002
Jett Stanley50.0%211050.0%110023.0%3523
Kayla Nisbet100.0%2000100.0%200040.0%2003
Louise Day25.0%101250.0%100125.0%1012
Mitchell Bell15.5%214625.0%312618.5%54612
Mathew Cahill0.0%0100-----33.0%1110
Robbie Downey18.0%232430.0%322314.5%3468
Rachel King33.0%743736.0%952922.5%139828
Tommy Berry-----100.0%100060.0%3011
Tyler Schiller-----50.0%210133.0%2211
Winona Costin33.0%220233.0%210333.0%4206
Zac Lloyd33.0%1011100.0%100128.5%2032

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com



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